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Hungary and the euro

January 30, 2023

While the Hungarian government has been planning since 2003 to replace the Hungarian forint with the euro, as of 2023, there is no target date and the forint is not part of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM II). An economic study in 2008 found that the adoption of the euro would increase foreign investment in Hungary by 30%,[1] although current governor of the Hungarian National Bank and former Minister of the National Economy György Matolcsy said they did not want to give up the country's independence regarding corporate tax matters.[2]

Eurozone participation
European Union (EU) member states
  20 in the eurozone
  1 in ERM II, without opt-out (Bulgaria)
  1 in ERM II, with an opt-out (Denmark)
  5 not in ERM II, but obliged to join the eurozone on meeting convergence criteria (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Sweden)
Non–EU member territories
  4 using the euro with a monetary agreement (Andorra, Monaco, San Marino, and Vatican City)
  2 using the euro unilaterally (Kosovo[a] and Montenegro)

Adopting the euro

Under the socialist governments between 2002 and 2010

Hungary originally planned to adopt the euro as its official currency in 2007 or 2008.[3] Later 1 January 2010 became the target date,[4][5] but that date was abandoned because of an excessively high budget deficit, inflation, and public debt. For years, Hungary could not meet any of the Maastricht criteria.[6] After the 2006 election, Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány introduced austerity measures, causing protests in late 2006 and an economic slowdown in 2007 and 2008. However, in 2007, the deficit had been reduced to less than 5% (from 9.2%) and approached the 3% threshold in 2008. In 2008 analysts claimed that Hungary could join ERM II in 2010 or 2011 and so might adopt the euro in 2013, but more feasibly in 2014,[7] or later, depending on eurozone crisis developments. On 8 July 2008, the then Finance Minister János Veres announced the first draft of a euro-adoption plan.

After the 2008 global financial crisis, the likelihood of a fast adoption seemed greater.[8] Hungary received aid from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the European Union and the World Bank.[9] In October 2008 the head of Hungary's largest bank called for a special application to join the eurozone.[10]

Ferenc Gyurcsány ran out of political capital in March 2009 to accept necessary measures.[clarification needed] The exchange rate reached 317 forints to one euro on 6 March. Gyurcsány initiated a constructive motion of no confidence against himself on 21 March and nominated Minister for Development and economist Gordon Bajnai as his replacement. The socialist and liberal parties accepted him as the new prime minister, with an interim government for one year from 14 April. Bajnai's premiership brought new austerity measures in Hungary. Thus, they may[clarification needed] keep the deficit under 4% in 2009 and the 2010 Budget calculations assumed 3.8%. The inflation outturn was near 3% as a result of the crisis, but because of the increase in VAT, it averaged 5% in the second half of the year. Because of the IMF loan, the public debt rose to nearly 80%. The central bank interest rate fell to 6.25% from 10.5% in 2009. The Bajnai government could not lead Hungary into the ERM II, and it stated that it had no plans to do so.

Under the conservative government from 2010

The centre-right soft Eurosceptic Fidesz won enough seats in the 2010 Hungarian parliamentary election to form a government on its own. Fidesz was not specific then about its economic priorities. Shortly after the formation of the new government, they announced their intention to keep the 2010 deficit at 3.8%.[11] After more pressure, in September they also accepted a reduction to 3% in 2011.[12] In 2010, Finance Minister György Matolcsy said they would discuss euro adoption in 2012.[13] Mihály Varga, another member of the party, talked about possible euro adoption in 2014 or 2015.[14]

However, in February 2011, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán made clear that he does not expect the euro to be adopted in Hungary before 2020.[15] Later, Matolcsy also confirmed this statement. Orbán said the country was not yet ready to adopt the currency and they would not discuss the possibility until the public debt reached a 50% threshold.[16] The public debt-to-GDP ratio was 81.0% when Orbán's 50% target was set in 2011, and it is currently forecast to decline to 73.5% in 2016.[17]

In 2011, experts said that the earliest date that Hungary could adopt the euro was 2015.[18]

When the countries of the eurozone adopted the Euro-Plus Pact on 25 March 2011, Hungary decided to go along with the United Kingdom, Sweden and the Czech Republic and chose not to join the pact. Matolcsy said that they could agree with the most of its contents, but did not want to give up the country's independence regarding corporate tax matters.[2] As the Euro-Plus Pact does not feature any legal obligations - but only commitments to use various sets of voluntary tools to improve employment, competitiveness, fiscal responsibility and financial stability - joining this pact would not lead to a requirement for Hungary to abandon their current corporate tax method.

In April 2013, Viktor Orbán proclaimed euro adoption would not happen until the Hungarian purchasing power parity weighted GDP per capita had reached 90% of the eurozone average.[19] According to Eurostat, this relative percentage rose from 57.0% in 2004 to 63.4% in 2014.[20] If the same pace of "catching up" progress was to be expected in the future as in the past ten years (6.4% per decade), Hungary would only reach Orbán's 90% target and adopt the euro in 2056. Although, Hungary could potentially also reach Orbán's 90% target and adopt the euro in 2033, if being able for the upcoming period to sustain the same 1.4% of annual improvements in the figure as achieved from 2013 to 2014. Shortly after Orbán had been re-elected as Prime Minister for another four-year term in April 2014,[21] the Hungarian Central Bank announced that they planned to introduce a new series of forint banknotes in 2018.[22] In June 2015, Orbán declared that his government would no longer entertain the idea of replacing the forint with the euro in 2020, as was previously suggested, and instead expected the forint to remain "stable and strong for the next several decades",[23] although, in July 2016, National Economy Minister Mihály Varga suggested that country could adopt the euro by the "end of the decade", but only if economic trends continue to improve and the common currency becomes more stable.[24][25] No official target date has been set for euro adoption.

Public opinion

Public support for the euro in Hungary[26]

The Maastricht criteria

Further information: Convergence criteria

Inflation

Inflation slowed down to 2.2% in 2006. However, after the austerity measures it was much higher than the criteria until the crisis. The crisis slowed it down to 2.9%, but in the end it was above the Maastricht criteria in 2009. The annual inflation was 0.9% in October 2013.

Budget deficit

The budget deficit was 9.2% in the election year of 2006. After the austerity measures, it neared the 3% threshold in 2008. The deficit was planned to be 3.9% in 2009, but was ultimately above 4%. The 2010 budget planned 3.8%, but it also went over 4%. Hungary's general government deficit, excluding the effect of one-off measures, was 2.43% of GDP in 2011, lower than the 2.94% target and under the 3% threshold for the first time since 2004. Hungary recorded a budget deficit of 1.9% in 2012, well below previous expectations. The budget deficit is expected to be under the 3% threshold in 2013 as well.[27]

Public debt

Public debt accounted for 80.1% of GDP in 2010,[28] above the 60% target. However, the EU might accept a Hungarian public debt which declines for at least 2 years.

Interest rate

The central bank's interest rate was raised by 3% to 11.5% in October 2008, because of the crisis. However, then it was lowered consecutively 14 times until 27 April 2010 down to 5.25%. Then it was raised 5 times until 21 December 2011 up to 7%. Since then the rate has declined 35 times, as of February 2019 the interest rate is 0.90%[29]

ERM-II membership

As the conservative government in 2013 did not plan to adopt the euro before 2020, there is no discussion about a possible ERM II membership.

Convergence status

Convergence criteria
Assessment month Country HICP inflation rate[30][nb 1] Excessive deficit procedure[31] Exchange rate Long-term interest rate[32][nb 2] Compatibility of legislation
Budget deficit to GDP[33] Debt-to-GDP ratio[34] ERM II member[35] Change in rate[36][37][nb 3]
2012 ECB Report[nb 4] Reference values Max. 3.1%[nb 5]
(as of 31 Mar 2012) 		None open (as of 31 March 2012) Min. 2 years
(as of 31 Mar 2012) 		Max. ±15%[nb 6]
(for 2011) 		Max. 5.80%[nb 7]
(as of 31 Mar 2012) 		Yes[38][39]
(as of 31 Mar 2012)
Max. 3.0%
(Fiscal year 2011)[40] 		Max. 60%
(Fiscal year 2011)[40]
  Hungary 4.3% Open No -1.4% 8.01% No
-4.3% (surplus) 80.6%
2013 ECB Report[nb 8] Reference values Max. 2.7%[nb 9]
(as of 30 Apr 2013) 		None open (as of 30 Apr 2013) Min. 2 years
(as of 30 Apr 2013) 		Max. ±15%[nb 6]
(for 2012) 		Max. 5.5%[nb 9]
(as of 30 Apr 2013) 		Yes[41][42]
(as of 30 Apr 2013)
Max. 3.0%
(Fiscal year 2012)[43] 		Max. 60%
(Fiscal year 2012)[43]
  Hungary 4.6% Open (Closed in June 2013) No -3.5% 6.97% Un­known
1.9% 79.2%
2014 ECB Report[nb 10] Reference values Max. 1.7%[nb 11]
(as of 30 Apr 2014) 		None open (as of 30 Apr 2014) Min. 2 years
(as of 30 Apr 2014) 		Max. ±15%[nb 6]
(for 2013) 		Max. 6.2%[nb 12]
(as of 30 Apr 2014) 		Yes[44][45]
(as of 30 Apr 2014)
Max. 3.0%
(Fiscal year 2013)[46] 		Max. 60%
(Fiscal year 2013)[46]
  Hungary 1.0% None No -2.6% 5.80% No
2.2% 79.2%
2016 ECB Report[nb 13] Reference values Max. 0.7%[nb 14]
(as of 30 Apr 2016) 		None open (as of 18 May 2016) Min. 2 years
(as of 18 May 2016) 		Max. ±15%[nb 6]
(for 2015) 		Max. 4.0%[nb 15]
(as of 30 Apr 2016) 		Yes[47][48]
(as of 18 May 2016)
Max. 3.0%
(Fiscal year 2015)[49] 		Max. 60%
(Fiscal year 2015)[49]
  Hungary 0.4% None No -0.4% 3.4% No
2.0% 75.3%
2018 ECB Report[nb 16] Reference values Max. 1.9%[nb 17]
(as of 31 Mar 2018) 		None open (as of 3 May 2018) Min. 2 years
(as of 3 May 2018) 		Max. ±15%[nb 6]
(for 2017) 		Max. 3.2%[nb 18]
(as of 31 Mar 2018) 		Yes[50][51]
(as of 20 March 2018)
Max. 3.0%
(Fiscal year 2017)[52] 		Max. 60%
(Fiscal year 2017)[52]
  Hungary 2.2% None No 0.7% 2.7% No
2.0% 73.6%
2020 ECB Report[nb 19] Reference values Max. 1.8%[nb 20]
(as of 31 Mar 2020) 		None open (as of 7 May 2020) Min. 2 years
(as of 7 May 2020) 		Max. ±15%[nb 6]
(for 2019) 		Max. 2.9%[nb 21]
(as of 31 Mar 2020) 		Yes[53][54]
(as of 24 March 2020)
Max. 3.0%
(Fiscal year 2019)[55] 		Max. 60%
(Fiscal year 2019)[55]
  Hungary 3.7% None No -2.0% 2.3% No
2.0% 66.3%
2022 ECB Report[nb 22] Reference values Max. 4.9%[nb 23]
(as of April 2022) 		None open (as of 25 May 2022) Min. 2 years
(as of 25 May 2022) 		Max. ±15%[nb 6]
(for 2021) 		Max. 2.6%[nb 23]
(as of April 2022) 		Yes[56][57]
(as of 25 March 2022)
Max. 3.0%
(Fiscal year 2021)[56] 		Max. 60%
(Fiscal year 2021)[56]
  Hungary 6.8% None No -2.1% 4.1% No
6.8% (exempt) 76.8% (exempt)
  Criterion fulfilled
  Criterion potentially fulfilled: If the budget deficit exceeds the 3% limit, but is "close" to this value (the European Commission has deemed 3.5% to be close by in the past),[58] then the criteria can still potentially be fulfilled if either the deficits in the previous two years are significantly declining towards the 3% limit, or if the excessive deficit is the result of exceptional circumstances which are temporary in nature (i.e. one-off expenditures triggered by a significant economic downturn, or by the implementation of economic reforms that are expected to deliver a significant positive impact on the government's future fiscal budgets). However, even if such "special circumstances" are found to exist, additional criteria must also be met to comply with the fiscal budget criterion.[59][60] Additionally, if the debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 60% but is "sufficiently diminishing and approaching the reference value at a satisfactory pace" it can be deemed to be in compliance.[60]
  Criterion not fulfilled
Notes
  1. ^ The rate of increase of the 12-month average HICP over the prior 12-month average must be no more than 1.5% larger than the unweighted arithmetic average of the similar HICP inflation rates in the 3 EU member states with the lowest HICP inflation. If any of these 3 states have a HICP rate significantly below the similarly averaged HICP rate for the eurozone (which according to ECB practice means more than 2% below), and if this low HICP rate has been primarily caused by exceptional circumstances (i.e. severe wage cuts or a strong recession), then such a state is not included in the calculation of the reference value and is replaced by the EU state with the fourth lowest HICP rate.
  2. ^ The arithmetic average of the annual yield of 10-year government bonds as of the end of the past 12 months must be no more than 2.0% larger than the unweighted arithmetic average of the bond yields in the 3 EU member states with the lowest HICP inflation. If any of these states have bond yields which are significantly larger than the similarly averaged yield for the eurozone (which according to previous ECB reports means more than 2% above) and at the same time does not have complete funding access to financial markets (which is the case for as long as a government receives bailout funds), then such a state is not be included in the calculation of the reference value.
  3. ^ The change in the annual average exchange rate against the euro.
  4. ^ Reference values from the ECB convergence report of May 2012.[38]
  5. ^ Sweden, Ireland and Slovenia were the reference states.[38]
  6. ^ a b c d e f g The maximum allowed change in rate is ± 2.25% for Denmark.
  7. ^ Sweden and Slovenia were the reference states, with Ireland excluded as an outlier.[38]
  8. ^ Reference values from the ECB convergence report of June 2013.[41]
  9. ^ a b Sweden, Latvia and Ireland were the reference states.[41]
  10. ^ Reference values from the ECB convergence report of June 2014.[44]
  11. ^ Latvia, Portugal and Ireland were the reference states, with Greece, Bulgaria and Cyprus excluded as outliers.[44]
  12. ^ Latvia, Ireland and Portugal were the reference states.[44]
  13. ^ Reference values from the ECB convergence report of June 2016.[47]
  14. ^ Bulgaria, Slovenia and Spain were the reference states, with Cyprus and Romania excluded as outliers.[47]
  15. ^ Slovenia, Spain and Bulgaria were the reference states.[47]
  16. ^ Reference values from the ECB convergence report of May 2018.[50]
  17. ^ Cyprus, Ireland and Finland were the reference states.[50]
  18. ^ Cyprus, Ireland and Finland were the reference states.[50]
  19. ^ Reference values from the ECB convergence report of June 2020.[53]
  20. ^ Portugal, Cyprus, and Italy were the reference states.[53]
  21. ^ Portugal, Cyprus, and Italy were the reference states.[53]
  22. ^ Reference values from the Convergence Report of June 2022.[56]
  23. ^ a b France, Finland, and Greece were the reference states.[56]

See also

Notes

  1. ^ The political status of Kosovo is disputed. Having unilaterally declared independence from Serbia in 2008, Kosovo is formally recognised as an independent state by 101 UN member states (with another 13 states recognising it at some point but then withdrawing their recognition) and 92 states not recognizing it, while Serbia continues to claim it as part of its own territory.

References

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January 30, 2023
hungary, euro, while, hungarian, government, been, planning, since, 2003, replace, hungarian, forint, with, euro, 2023, update, there, target, date, forint, part, european, exchange, rate, mechanism, economic, study, 2008, found, that, adoption, euro, would, i. While the Hungarian government has been planning since 2003 to replace the Hungarian forint with the euro as of 2023 update there is no target date and the forint is not part of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism ERM II An economic study in 2008 found that the adoption of the euro would increase foreign investment in Hungary by 30 1 although current governor of the Hungarian National Bank and former Minister of the National Economy Gyorgy Matolcsy said they did not want to give up the country s independence regarding corporate tax matters 2 Eurozone participation European Union EU member states 20 in the eurozone 1 in ERM II without opt out Bulgaria 1 in ERM II with an opt out Denmark 5 not in ERM II but obliged to join the eurozone on meeting convergence criteria Czech Republic Hungary Poland Romania and Sweden Non EU member territories 4 using the euro with a monetary agreement Andorra Monaco San Marino and Vatican City 2 using the euro unilaterally Kosovo a and Montenegro vte Contents 1 Adopting the euro 1 1 Under the socialist governments between 2002 and 2010 1 2 Under the conservative government from 2010 2 Public opinion 3 The Maastricht criteria 3 1 Inflation 3 2 Budget deficit 3 3 Public debt 3 4 Interest rate 3 5 ERM II membership 3 6 Convergence status 4 See also 5 Notes 6 ReferencesAdopting the euro EditUnder the socialist governments between 2002 and 2010 Edit Hungary originally planned to adopt the euro as its official currency in 2007 or 2008 3 Later 1 January 2010 became the target date 4 5 but that date was abandoned because of an excessively high budget deficit inflation and public debt For years Hungary could not meet any of the Maastricht criteria 6 After the 2006 election Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsany introduced austerity measures causing protests in late 2006 and an economic slowdown in 2007 and 2008 However in 2007 the deficit had been reduced to less than 5 from 9 2 and approached the 3 threshold in 2008 In 2008 analysts claimed that Hungary could join ERM II in 2010 or 2011 and so might adopt the euro in 2013 but more feasibly in 2014 7 or later depending on eurozone crisis developments On 8 July 2008 the then Finance Minister Janos Veres announced the first draft of a euro adoption plan After the 2008 global financial crisis the likelihood of a fast adoption seemed greater 8 Hungary received aid from the International Monetary Fund IMF the European Union and the World Bank 9 In October 2008 the head of Hungary s largest bank called for a special application to join the eurozone 10 Ferenc Gyurcsany ran out of political capital in March 2009 to accept necessary measures clarification needed The exchange rate reached 317 forints to one euro on 6 March Gyurcsany initiated a constructive motion of no confidence against himself on 21 March and nominated Minister for Development and economist Gordon Bajnai as his replacement The socialist and liberal parties accepted him as the new prime minister with an interim government for one year from 14 April Bajnai s premiership brought new austerity measures in Hungary Thus they may clarification needed keep the deficit under 4 in 2009 and the 2010 Budget calculations assumed 3 8 The inflation outturn was near 3 as a result of the crisis but because of the increase in VAT it averaged 5 in the second half of the year Because of the IMF loan the public debt rose to nearly 80 The central bank interest rate fell to 6 25 from 10 5 in 2009 The Bajnai government could not lead Hungary into the ERM II and it stated that it had no plans to do so Under the conservative government from 2010 Edit The centre right soft Eurosceptic Fidesz won enough seats in the 2010 Hungarian parliamentary election to form a government on its own Fidesz was not specific then about its economic priorities Shortly after the formation of the new government they announced their intention to keep the 2010 deficit at 3 8 11 After more pressure in September they also accepted a reduction to 3 in 2011 12 In 2010 Finance Minister Gyorgy Matolcsy said they would discuss euro adoption in 2012 13 Mihaly Varga another member of the party talked about possible euro adoption in 2014 or 2015 14 However in February 2011 Prime Minister Viktor Orban made clear that he does not expect the euro to be adopted in Hungary before 2020 15 Later Matolcsy also confirmed this statement Orban said the country was not yet ready to adopt the currency and they would not discuss the possibility until the public debt reached a 50 threshold 16 The public debt to GDP ratio was 81 0 when Orban s 50 target was set in 2011 and it is currently forecast to decline to 73 5 in 2016 17 In 2011 experts said that the earliest date that Hungary could adopt the euro was 2015 18 When the countries of the eurozone adopted the Euro Plus Pact on 25 March 2011 Hungary decided to go along with the United Kingdom Sweden and the Czech Republic and chose not to join the pact Matolcsy said that they could agree with the most of its contents but did not want to give up the country s independence regarding corporate tax matters 2 As the Euro Plus Pact does not feature any legal obligations but only commitments to use various sets of voluntary tools to improve employment competitiveness fiscal responsibility and financial stability joining this pact would not lead to a requirement for Hungary to abandon their current corporate tax method In April 2013 Viktor Orban proclaimed euro adoption would not happen until the Hungarian purchasing power parity weighted GDP per capita had reached 90 of the eurozone average 19 According to Eurostat this relative percentage rose from 57 0 in 2004 to 63 4 in 2014 20 If the same pace of catching up progress was to be expected in the future as in the past ten years 6 4 per decade Hungary would only reach Orban s 90 target and adopt the euro in 2056 Although Hungary could potentially also reach Orban s 90 target and adopt the euro in 2033 if being able for the upcoming period to sustain the same 1 4 of annual improvements in the figure as achieved from 2013 to 2014 Shortly after Orban had been re elected as Prime Minister for another four year term in April 2014 21 the Hungarian Central Bank announced that they planned to introduce a new series of forint banknotes in 2018 22 In June 2015 Orban declared that his government would no longer entertain the idea of replacing the forint with the euro in 2020 as was previously suggested and instead expected the forint to remain stable and strong for the next several decades 23 although in July 2016 National Economy Minister Mihaly Varga suggested that country could adopt the euro by the end of the decade but only if economic trends continue to improve and the common currency becomes more stable 24 25 No official target date has been set for euro adoption Public opinion EditPublic support for the euro in Hungary 26 The Maastricht criteria EditFurther information Convergence criteria Inflation Edit Inflation slowed down to 2 2 in 2006 However after the austerity measures it was much higher than the criteria until the crisis The crisis slowed it down to 2 9 but in the end it was above the Maastricht criteria in 2009 The annual inflation was 0 9 in October 2013 Budget deficit Edit The budget deficit was 9 2 in the election year of 2006 After the austerity measures it neared the 3 threshold in 2008 The deficit was planned to be 3 9 in 2009 but was ultimately above 4 The 2010 budget planned 3 8 but it also went over 4 Hungary s general government deficit excluding the effect of one off measures was 2 43 of GDP in 2011 lower than the 2 94 target and under the 3 threshold for the first time since 2004 Hungary recorded a budget deficit of 1 9 in 2012 well below previous expectations The budget deficit is expected to be under the 3 threshold in 2013 as well 27 Public debt Edit Public debt accounted for 80 1 of GDP in 2010 28 above the 60 target However the EU might accept a Hungarian public debt which declines for at least 2 years Interest rate Edit The central bank s interest rate was raised by 3 to 11 5 in October 2008 because of the crisis However then it was lowered consecutively 14 times until 27 April 2010 down to 5 25 Then it was raised 5 times until 21 December 2011 up to 7 Since then the rate has declined 35 times as of February 2019 update the interest rate is 0 90 29 ERM II membership Edit As the conservative government in 2013 did not plan to adopt the euro before 2020 there is no discussion about a possible ERM II membership Convergence status Edit Convergence criteria Assessment month Country HICP inflation rate 30 nb 1 Excessive deficit procedure 31 Exchange rate Long term interest rate 32 nb 2 Compatibility of legislationBudget deficit to GDP 33 Debt to GDP ratio 34 ERM II member 35 Change in rate 36 37 nb 3 2012 ECB Report nb 4 Reference values Max 3 1 nb 5 as of 31 Mar 2012 None open as of 31 March 2012 Min 2 years as of 31 Mar 2012 Max 15 nb 6 for 2011 Max 5 80 nb 7 as of 31 Mar 2012 Yes 38 39 as of 31 Mar 2012 Max 3 0 Fiscal year 2011 40 Max 60 Fiscal year 2011 40 Hungary 4 3 Open No 1 4 8 01 No 4 3 surplus 80 6 2013 ECB Report nb 8 Reference values Max 2 7 nb 9 as of 30 Apr 2013 None open as of 30 Apr 2013 Min 2 years as of 30 Apr 2013 Max 15 nb 6 for 2012 Max 5 5 nb 9 as of 30 Apr 2013 Yes 41 42 as of 30 Apr 2013 Max 3 0 Fiscal year 2012 43 Max 60 Fiscal year 2012 43 Hungary 4 6 Open Closed in June 2013 No 3 5 6 97 Un known1 9 79 2 2014 ECB Report nb 10 Reference values Max 1 7 nb 11 as of 30 Apr 2014 None open as of 30 Apr 2014 Min 2 years as of 30 Apr 2014 Max 15 nb 6 for 2013 Max 6 2 nb 12 as of 30 Apr 2014 Yes 44 45 as of 30 Apr 2014 Max 3 0 Fiscal year 2013 46 Max 60 Fiscal year 2013 46 Hungary 1 0 None No 2 6 5 80 No2 2 79 2 2016 ECB Report nb 13 Reference values Max 0 7 nb 14 as of 30 Apr 2016 None open as of 18 May 2016 Min 2 years as of 18 May 2016 Max 15 nb 6 for 2015 Max 4 0 nb 15 as of 30 Apr 2016 Yes 47 48 as of 18 May 2016 Max 3 0 Fiscal year 2015 49 Max 60 Fiscal year 2015 49 Hungary 0 4 None No 0 4 3 4 No2 0 75 3 2018 ECB Report nb 16 Reference values Max 1 9 nb 17 as of 31 Mar 2018 None open as of 3 May 2018 Min 2 years as of 3 May 2018 Max 15 nb 6 for 2017 Max 3 2 nb 18 as of 31 Mar 2018 Yes 50 51 as of 20 March 2018 Max 3 0 Fiscal year 2017 52 Max 60 Fiscal year 2017 52 Hungary 2 2 None No 0 7 2 7 No2 0 73 6 2020 ECB Report nb 19 Reference values Max 1 8 nb 20 as of 31 Mar 2020 None open as of 7 May 2020 Min 2 years as of 7 May 2020 Max 15 nb 6 for 2019 Max 2 9 nb 21 as of 31 Mar 2020 Yes 53 54 as of 24 March 2020 Max 3 0 Fiscal year 2019 55 Max 60 Fiscal year 2019 55 Hungary 3 7 None No 2 0 2 3 No2 0 66 3 2022 ECB Report nb 22 Reference values Max 4 9 nb 23 as of April 2022 None open as of 25 May 2022 Min 2 years as of 25 May 2022 Max 15 nb 6 for 2021 Max 2 6 nb 23 as of April 2022 Yes 56 57 as of 25 March 2022 Max 3 0 Fiscal year 2021 56 Max 60 Fiscal year 2021 56 Hungary 6 8 None No 2 1 4 1 No6 8 exempt 76 8 exempt Criterion fulfilled Criterion potentially fulfilled If the budget deficit exceeds the 3 limit but is close to this value the European Commission has deemed 3 5 to be close by in the past 58 then the criteria can still potentially be fulfilled if either the deficits in the previous two years are significantly declining towards the 3 limit or if the excessive deficit is the result of exceptional circumstances which are temporary in nature i e one off expenditures triggered by a significant economic downturn or by the implementation of economic reforms that are expected to deliver a significant positive impact on the government s future fiscal budgets However even if such special circumstances are found to exist additional criteria must also be met to comply with the fiscal budget criterion 59 60 Additionally if the debt to GDP ratio exceeds 60 but is sufficiently diminishing and approaching the reference value at a satisfactory pace it can be deemed to be in compliance 60 Criterion not fulfilled Notes The rate of increase of the 12 month average HICP over the prior 12 month average must be no more than 1 5 larger than the unweighted arithmetic average of the similar HICP inflation rates in the 3 EU member states with the lowest HICP inflation If any of these 3 states have a HICP rate significantly below the similarly averaged HICP rate for the eurozone which according to ECB practice means more than 2 below and if this low HICP rate has been primarily caused by exceptional circumstances i e severe wage cuts or a strong recession then such a state is not included in the calculation of the reference value and is replaced by the EU state with the fourth lowest HICP rate The arithmetic average of the annual yield of 10 year government bonds as of the end of the past 12 months must be no more than 2 0 larger than the unweighted arithmetic average of the bond yields in the 3 EU member states with the lowest HICP inflation If any of these states have bond yields which are significantly larger than the similarly averaged yield for the eurozone which according to previous ECB reports means more than 2 above and at the same time does not have complete funding access to financial markets which is the case for as long as a government receives bailout funds then such a state is not be included in the calculation of the reference value The change in the annual average exchange rate against the euro Reference values from the ECB convergence report of May 2012 38 Sweden Ireland and Slovenia were the reference states 38 a b c d e f g The maximum allowed change in rate is 2 25 for Denmark Sweden and Slovenia were the reference states with Ireland excluded as an outlier 38 Reference values from the ECB convergence report of June 2013 41 a b Sweden Latvia and Ireland were the reference states 41 Reference values from the ECB convergence report of June 2014 44 Latvia Portugal and Ireland were the reference states with Greece Bulgaria and Cyprus excluded as outliers 44 Latvia Ireland and Portugal were the reference states 44 Reference values from the ECB convergence report of June 2016 47 Bulgaria Slovenia and Spain were the reference states with Cyprus and Romania excluded as outliers 47 Slovenia Spain and Bulgaria were the reference states 47 Reference values from the ECB convergence report of May 2018 50 Cyprus Ireland and Finland were the reference states 50 Cyprus Ireland and Finland were the reference states 50 Reference values from the ECB convergence report of June 2020 53 Portugal Cyprus and Italy were the reference states 53 Portugal Cyprus and Italy were the reference states 53 Reference values from the Convergence Report of June 2022 56 a b France Finland and Greece were the reference states 56 See also Edit Hungary portal Money portalEnlargement of the eurozoneNotes Edit The political status of Kosovo is disputed Having unilaterally declared independence from Serbia in 2008 Kosovo is formally recognised as an independent state by 101 UN member states with another 13 states recognising it at some point but then withdrawing their recognition and 92 states not recognizing it while Serbia continues to claim it as part of its own territory References Edit About the impact of the EMU entry Science Direct doi 10 1016 j jimonfin 2007 12 005 S2CID 8884997 Archived from the original on 12 September 2012 Retrieved 31 December 2009 a href Template Cite journal html title Template Cite journal cite journal a Cite journal requires journal help a b Orban We will not join the Euro Pact In Hungarian Hirszerzo Archived from the original on 25 March 2011 Retrieved 26 March 2011 When will we have the euro In Hungarian Origo Retrieved 14 December 2008 MET Magyarorszagi Europa Tarsasag On the Introduction of the Euro in Hungary Let s Stick to 2010 Europatarsasag hu Retrieved 26 April 2011 Veres Euro can come in 2010 In Hungarian Sulinet Archived from the original on 14 February 2009 Retrieved 14 December 2008 Slovak euro application approved In Hungarian FigyeloNet Retrieved 14 December 2008 Can we really have the euro first in the region In Hungarian Menedzser Forum Archived from the original on 26 December 2009 Retrieved 14 December 2008 Crisis can make faster euro adoption In Hungarian KEMKIK Archived from the original on 28 August 2009 Retrieved 14 December 2008 Hungary to get 25 1 billion in IMF led aid deal The Economic Times 29 October 2008 Retrieved 14 December 2008 Csanyi Euro adoption anyway In Hungarian FigyeloNet Retrieved 14 December 2008 Matolcsy in Luxembourg we will keep the deficit at 3 8 In Hungarian Hirszerzo Archived from the original on 3 March 2016 Retrieved 26 March 2011 Matolcsy deficit will be under 3 in 2011 In Hungarian Index 8 September 2010 Retrieved 26 March 2011 Hungary May Name Euro Entry Target Date in 2012 Matolcsy Says Businessweek Retrieved 26 March 2011 Varga promises euro in 2014 or 2015 In Hungarian GazdasagiRadio Archived from the original on 6 October 2011 Retrieved 26 March 2011 Orban We won t have euro until 2020 in Hungarian Index 5 February 2011 Retrieved 26 March 2011 Matolcsy Hungarian euro is possible in 2020 in Hungarian Vilaggazdasag 4 March 2011 Retrieved 26 March 2011 European Economic Forecast Spring 2015 17 Hungary PDF European Commission 5 May 2015 Ungarn Euro Einfuhrung noch nicht absehbar Wirtschaft in Ungarn Balaton zeitung info 1 December 2009 Retrieved 26 April 2011 Orban Hungary will keep forint until its GDP reaches 90 of eurozone average All Hungary Media Group 26 April 2013 Archived from the original on 19 January 2015 Retrieved 19 January 2015 Purchasing power parities PPPs price level indices and real expenditures for ESA2010 aggregates GDP Volume indices of real expenditure per capita in PPS EU28 100 Eurostat 16 June 2015 Hungary election PM Viktor Orban declares victory BBC 6 April 2014 Hungary s New Notes Speak of Late Conversion to Euro The Wall Street Journal 1 September 2014 Orban Hungary will not adopt the euro for many decades to come Hungarian Free Press 3 June 2015 HUNGARY S ECONOMY MINISTER SEES POSSIBILITY FOR ADOPTING EURO BY 2020 UPDATE Daily News Hungary 3 June 2015 Hungary mulls euro adoption by 2020 BR epaper 19 July 2016 Eurobarometer Portfolio hu Hungarian public debt lowered and rose as well In Hungarian Napi Gazdasag Archived from the original on 12 May 2012 Retrieved 26 March 2011 Hungarian National Bank Interest rate Hungarian National Bank Retrieved 9 December 2013 HICP 2005 100 Monthly data 12 month average rate of annual change Eurostat 16 August 2012 Retrieved 6 September 2012 The corrective arm Excessive Deficit Procedure European Commission Retrieved 2 June 2018 Long term interest rate statistics for EU Member States monthly data for the average of the past year Eurostat Retrieved 18 December 2012 Government deficit surplus data Eurostat 22 April 2013 Retrieved 22 April 2013 General government gross debt EDP concept consolidated annual data Eurostat Retrieved 2 June 2018 ERM II the EU s Exchange Rate Mechanism European Commission Retrieved 2 June 2018 Euro ECU exchange rates annual data average Eurostat Retrieved 5 July 2014 Former euro area national currencies vs euro ECU annual data average Eurostat Retrieved 5 July 2014 a b c d Convergence Report May 2012 PDF European Central Bank May 2012 Retrieved 20 January 2013 Convergence Report 2012 PDF European Commission March 2012 Retrieved 26 September 2014 a b European economic forecast spring 2012 PDF European Commission 1 May 2012 Retrieved 1 September 2012 a b c Convergence Report PDF European Central Bank June 2013 Retrieved 17 June 2013 Convergence Report 2013 PDF European Commission March 2013 Retrieved 26 September 2014 a b European economic forecast spring 2013 PDF European Commission February 2013 Retrieved 4 July 2014 a b c d Convergence Report PDF European Central Bank June 2014 Retrieved 5 July 2014 Convergence Report 2014 PDF European Commission April 2014 Retrieved 26 September 2014 a b European economic forecast spring 2014 PDF European Commission March 2014 Retrieved 5 July 2014 a b c d Convergence Report PDF European Central Bank June 2016 Retrieved 7 June 2016 Convergence Report June 2016 PDF European Commission June 2016 Retrieved 7 June 2016 a b European economic forecast spring 2016 PDF European Commission May 2016 Retrieved 7 June 2016 a b c d Convergence Report 2018 European Central Bank 22 May 2018 Retrieved 2 June 2018 Convergence Report May 2018 European Commission May 2018 Retrieved 2 June 2018 a b European economic forecast spring 2018 European Commission May 2018 Retrieved 2 June 2018 a b c d Convergence Report 2020 PDF European Central Bank 1 June 2020 Retrieved 13 June 2020 Convergence Report June 2020 European Commission June 2020 Retrieved 13 June 2020 a b European economic forecast spring 2020 European Commission 6 May 2020 Retrieved 13 June 2020 a b c d e Convergence Report June 2022 PDF European Central Bank 1 June 2022 Retrieved 1 June 2022 Convergence Report 2022 PDF European Commission 1 June 2022 Retrieved 1 June 2022 Luxembourg Report prepared in accordance with Article 126 3 of the Treaty PDF European Commission 12 May 2010 Retrieved 18 November 2012 EMI Annual Report 1994 PDF European Monetary Institute EMI April 1995 Retrieved 22 November 2012 a b Progress towards convergence November 1995 report prepared in accordance with article 7 of the EMI statute PDF European Monetary Institute EMI November 1995 Retrieved 22 November 2012 Retrieved from https en wikipedia org w index php title Hungary and the euro amp oldid 1135213329, wikipedia, wiki, book, books, library,

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