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Correlation

In statistics, correlation or dependence is any statistical relationship, whether causal or not, between two random variables or bivariate data. Although in the broadest sense, "correlation" may indicate any type of association, in statistics it usually refers to the degree to which a pair of variables are linearly related. Familiar examples of dependent phenomena include the correlation between the height of parents and their offspring, and the correlation between the price of a good and the quantity the consumers are willing to purchase, as it is depicted in the so-called demand curve.

Several sets of (xy) points, with the Pearson correlation coefficient of x and y for each set. The correlation reflects the noisiness and direction of a linear relationship (top row), but not the slope of that relationship (middle), nor many aspects of nonlinear relationships (bottom). N.B.: the figure in the center has a slope of 0 but in that case, the correlation coefficient is undefined because the variance of Y is zero.

Correlations are useful because they can indicate a predictive relationship that can be exploited in practice. For example, an electrical utility may produce less power on a mild day based on the correlation between electricity demand and weather. In this example, there is a causal relationship, because extreme weather causes people to use more electricity for heating or cooling. However, in general, the presence of a correlation is not sufficient to infer the presence of a causal relationship (i.e., correlation does not imply causation).

Formally, random variables are dependent if they do not satisfy a mathematical property of probabilistic independence. In informal parlance, correlation is synonymous with dependence. However, when used in a technical sense, correlation refers to any of several specific types of mathematical operations between the tested variables and their respective expected values. Essentially, correlation is the measure of how two or more variables are related to one another. There are several correlation coefficients, often denoted or , measuring the degree of correlation. The most common of these is the Pearson correlation coefficient, which is sensitive only to a linear relationship between two variables (which may be present even when one variable is a nonlinear function of the other). Other correlation coefficients – such as Spearman's rank correlation – have been developed to be more robust than Pearson's, that is, more sensitive to nonlinear relationships.[1][2][3] Mutual information can also be applied to measure dependence between two variables.

Pearson's product-moment coefficient

 
Example scatterplots of various datasets with various correlation coefficients.

The most familiar measure of dependence between two quantities is the Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient (PPMCC), or "Pearson's correlation coefficient", commonly called simply "the correlation coefficient". It is obtained by taking the ratio of the covariance of the two variables in question of our numerical dataset, normalized to the square root of their variances. Mathematically, one simply divides the covariance of the two variables by the product of their standard deviations. Karl Pearson developed the coefficient from a similar but slightly different idea by Francis Galton.[4]

A Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient attempts to establish a line of best fit through a dataset of two variables by essentially laying out the expected values and the resulting Pearson's correlation coefficient indicates how far away the actual dataset is from the expected values. Depending on the sign of our Pearson's correlation coefficient, we can end up with either a negative or positive correlation if there is any sort of relationship between the variables of our data set.

The population correlation coefficient   between two random variables   and   with expected values   and   and standard deviations   and   is defined as:

 

where   is the expected value operator,   means covariance, and   is a widely used alternative notation for the correlation coefficient. The Pearson correlation is defined only if both standard deviations are finite and positive. An alternative formula purely in terms of moments is:

 

Correlation and independence

It is a corollary of the Cauchy–Schwarz inequality that the absolute value of the Pearson correlation coefficient is not bigger than 1. Therefore, the value of a correlation coefficient ranges between −1 and +1. The correlation coefficient is +1 in the case of a perfect direct (increasing) linear relationship (correlation), −1 in the case of a perfect inverse (decreasing) linear relationship (anti-correlation),[5] and some value in the open interval   in all other cases, indicating the degree of linear dependence between the variables. As it approaches zero there is less of a relationship (closer to uncorrelated). The closer the coefficient is to either −1 or 1, the stronger the correlation between the variables.

If the variables are independent, Pearson's correlation coefficient is 0, but the converse is not true because the correlation coefficient detects only linear dependencies between two variables.

 

For example, suppose the random variable   is symmetrically distributed about zero, and  . Then   is completely determined by  , so that   and   are perfectly dependent, but their correlation is zero; they are uncorrelated. However, in the special case when   and   are jointly normal, uncorrelatedness is equivalent to independence.

Even though uncorrelated data does not necessarily imply independence, one can check if random variables are independent if their mutual information is 0.

Sample correlation coefficient

Given a series of   measurements of the pair   indexed by  , the sample correlation coefficient can be used to estimate the population Pearson correlation   between   and  . The sample correlation coefficient is defined as

 

where   and   are the sample means of   and  , and   and   are the corrected sample standard deviations of   and  .

Equivalent expressions for   are

 

where   and   are the uncorrected sample standard deviations of   and  .

If   and   are results of measurements that contain measurement error, the realistic limits on the correlation coefficient are not −1 to +1 but a smaller range.[6] For the case of a linear model with a single independent variable, the coefficient of determination (R squared) is the square of  , Pearson's product-moment coefficient.

Example

Consider the joint probability distribution of X and Y given in the table below.

 
y
x
−1 0 1
0 0 1/3 0
1 1/3 0 1/3

For this joint distribution, the marginal distributions are:

 
 

This yields the following expectations and variances:

 
 
 
 

Therefore:

 

Rank correlation coefficients

Rank correlation coefficients, such as Spearman's rank correlation coefficient and Kendall's rank correlation coefficient (τ) measure the extent to which, as one variable increases, the other variable tends to increase, without requiring that increase to be represented by a linear relationship. If, as the one variable increases, the other decreases, the rank correlation coefficients will be negative. It is common to regard these rank correlation coefficients as alternatives to Pearson's coefficient, used either to reduce the amount of calculation or to make the coefficient less sensitive to non-normality in distributions. However, this view has little mathematical basis, as rank correlation coefficients measure a different type of relationship than the Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient, and are best seen as measures of a different type of association, rather than as an alternative measure of the population correlation coefficient.[7][8]

To illustrate the nature of rank correlation, and its difference from linear correlation, consider the following four pairs of numbers  :

(0, 1), (10, 100), (101, 500), (102, 2000).

As we go from each pair to the next pair   increases, and so does  . This relationship is perfect, in the sense that an increase in   is always accompanied by an increase in  . This means that we have a perfect rank correlation, and both Spearman's and Kendall's correlation coefficients are 1, whereas in this example Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient is 0.7544, indicating that the points are far from lying on a straight line. In the same way if   always decreases when   increases, the rank correlation coefficients will be −1, while the Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient may or may not be close to −1, depending on how close the points are to a straight line. Although in the extreme cases of perfect rank correlation the two coefficients are both equal (being both +1 or both −1), this is not generally the case, and so values of the two coefficients cannot meaningfully be compared.[7] For example, for the three pairs (1, 1) (2, 3) (3, 2) Spearman's coefficient is 1/2, while Kendall's coefficient is 1/3.

Other measures of dependence among random variables

The information given by a correlation coefficient is not enough to define the dependence structure between random variables.[9] The correlation coefficient completely defines the dependence structure only in very particular cases, for example when the distribution is a multivariate normal distribution. (See diagram above.) In the case of elliptical distributions it characterizes the (hyper-)ellipses of equal density; however, it does not completely characterize the dependence structure (for example, a multivariate t-distribution's degrees of freedom determine the level of tail dependence).

Distance correlation[10][11] was introduced to address the deficiency of Pearson's correlation that it can be zero for dependent random variables; zero distance correlation implies independence.

The Randomized Dependence Coefficient[12] is a computationally efficient, copula-based measure of dependence between multivariate random variables. RDC is invariant with respect to non-linear scalings of random variables, is capable of discovering a wide range of functional association patterns and takes value zero at independence.

For two binary variables, the odds ratio measures their dependence, and takes range non-negative numbers, possibly infinity:  . Related statistics such as Yule's Y and Yule's Q normalize this to the correlation-like range  . The odds ratio is generalized by the logistic model to model cases where the dependent variables are discrete and there may be one or more independent variables.

The correlation ratio, entropy-based mutual information, total correlation, dual total correlation and polychoric correlation are all also capable of detecting more general dependencies, as is consideration of the copula between them, while the coefficient of determination generalizes the correlation coefficient to multiple regression.

Sensitivity to the data distribution

The degree of dependence between variables X and Y does not depend on the scale on which the variables are expressed. That is, if we are analyzing the relationship between X and Y, most correlation measures are unaffected by transforming X to a + bX and Y to c + dY, where a, b, c, and d are constants (b and d being positive). This is true of some correlation statistics as well as their population analogues. Some correlation statistics, such as the rank correlation coefficient, are also invariant to monotone transformations of the marginal distributions of X and/or Y.

 
Pearson/Spearman correlation coefficients between X and Y are shown when the two variables' ranges are unrestricted, and when the range of X is restricted to the interval (0,1).

Most correlation measures are sensitive to the manner in which X and Y are sampled. Dependencies tend to be stronger if viewed over a wider range of values. Thus, if we consider the correlation coefficient between the heights of fathers and their sons over all adult males, and compare it to the same correlation coefficient calculated when the fathers are selected to be between 165 cm and 170 cm in height, the correlation will be weaker in the latter case. Several techniques have been developed that attempt to correct for range restriction in one or both variables, and are commonly used in meta-analysis; the most common are Thorndike's case II and case III equations.[13]

Various correlation measures in use may be undefined for certain joint distributions of X and Y. For example, the Pearson correlation coefficient is defined in terms of moments, and hence will be undefined if the moments are undefined. Measures of dependence based on quantiles are always defined. Sample-based statistics intended to estimate population measures of dependence may or may not have desirable statistical properties such as being unbiased, or asymptotically consistent, based on the spatial structure of the population from which the data were sampled.

Sensitivity to the data distribution can be used to an advantage. For example, scaled correlation is designed to use the sensitivity to the range in order to pick out correlations between fast components of time series.[14] By reducing the range of values in a controlled manner, the correlations on long time scale are filtered out and only the correlations on short time scales are revealed.

Correlation matrices

The correlation matrix of   random variables   is the   matrix   whose   entry is

 

Thus the diagonal entries are all identically one. If the measures of correlation used are product-moment coefficients, the correlation matrix is the same as the covariance matrix of the standardized random variables   for  . This applies both to the matrix of population correlations (in which case   is the population standard deviation), and to the matrix of sample correlations (in which case   denotes the sample standard deviation). Consequently, each is necessarily a positive-semidefinite matrix. Moreover, the correlation matrix is strictly positive definite if no variable can have all its values exactly generated as a linear function of the values of the others.

The correlation matrix is symmetric because the correlation between   and   is the same as the correlation between   and  .

A correlation matrix appears, for example, in one formula for the coefficient of multiple determination, a measure of goodness of fit in multiple regression.

In statistical modelling, correlation matrices representing the relationships between variables are categorized into different correlation structures, which are distinguished by factors such as the number of parameters required to estimate them. For example, in an exchangeable correlation matrix, all pairs of variables are modeled as having the same correlation, so all non-diagonal elements of the matrix are equal to each other. On the other hand, an autoregressive matrix is often used when variables represent a time series, since correlations are likely to be greater when measurements are closer in time. Other examples include independent, unstructured, M-dependent, and Toeplitz.

In exploratory data analysis, the iconography of correlations consists in replacing a correlation matrix by a diagram where the “remarkable” correlations are represented by a solid line (positive correlation), or a dotted line (negative correlation).

Nearest valid correlation matrix

In some applications (e.g., building data models from only partially observed data) one wants to find the "nearest" correlation matrix to an "approximate" correlation matrix (e.g., a matrix which typically lacks semi-definite positiveness due to the way it has been computed).

In 2002, Higham[15] formalized the notion of nearness using the Frobenius norm and provided a method for computing the nearest correlation matrix using the Dykstra's projection algorithm, of which an implementation is available as an online Web API.[16]

This sparked interest in the subject, with new theoretical (e.g., computing the nearest correlation matrix with factor structure[17]) and numerical (e.g. usage the Newton's method for computing the nearest correlation matrix[18]) results obtained in the subsequent years.

Uncorrelatedness and independence of stochastic processes

Similarly for two stochastic processes   and  : If they are independent, then they are uncorrelated.[19]: p. 151  The opposite of this statement might not be true. Even if two variables are uncorrelated, they might not be independent to each other.

Common misconceptions

Correlation and causality

The conventional dictum that "correlation does not imply causation" means that correlation cannot be used by itself to infer a causal relationship between the variables.[20] This dictum should not be taken to mean that correlations cannot indicate the potential existence of causal relations. However, the causes underlying the correlation, if any, may be indirect and unknown, and high correlations also overlap with identity relations (tautologies), where no causal process exists. Consequently, a correlation between two variables is not a sufficient condition to establish a causal relationship (in either direction).

A correlation between age and height in children is fairly causally transparent, but a correlation between mood and health in people is less so. Does improved mood lead to improved health, or does good health lead to good mood, or both? Or does some other factor underlie both? In other words, a correlation can be taken as evidence for a possible causal relationship, but cannot indicate what the causal relationship, if any, might be.

Simple linear correlations

 
Anscombe's quartet: four sets of data with the same correlation of 0.816

The Pearson correlation coefficient indicates the strength of a linear relationship between two variables, but its value generally does not completely characterize their relationship.[21] In particular, if the conditional mean of   given  , denoted  , is not linear in  , the correlation coefficient will not fully determine the form of  .

The adjacent image shows scatter plots of Anscombe's quartet, a set of four different pairs of variables created by Francis Anscombe.[22] The four   variables have the same mean (7.5), variance (4.12), correlation (0.816) and regression line (y = 3 + 0.5x). However, as can be seen on the plots, the distribution of the variables is very different. The first one (top left) seems to be distributed normally, and corresponds to what one would expect when considering two variables correlated and following the assumption of normality. The second one (top right) is not distributed normally; while an obvious relationship between the two variables can be observed, it is not linear. In this case the Pearson correlation coefficient does not indicate that there is an exact functional relationship: only the extent to which that relationship can be approximated by a linear relationship. In the third case (bottom left), the linear relationship is perfect, except for one outlier which exerts enough influence to lower the correlation coefficient from 1 to 0.816. Finally, the fourth example (bottom right) shows another example when one outlier is enough to produce a high correlation coefficient, even though the relationship between the two variables is not linear.

These examples indicate that the correlation coefficient, as a summary statistic, cannot replace visual examination of the data. The examples are sometimes said to demonstrate that the Pearson correlation assumes that the data follow a normal distribution, but this is only partially correct.[4] The Pearson correlation can be accurately calculated for any distribution that has a finite covariance matrix, which includes most distributions encountered in practice. However, the Pearson correlation coefficient (taken together with the sample mean and variance) is only a sufficient statistic if the data is drawn from a multivariate normal distribution. As a result, the Pearson correlation coefficient fully characterizes the relationship between variables if and only if the data are drawn from a multivariate normal distribution.

Bivariate normal distribution

If a pair   of random variables follows a bivariate normal distribution, the conditional mean   is a linear function of  , and the conditional mean   is a linear function of  . The correlation coefficient   between   and  , along with the marginal means and variances of   and  , determines this linear relationship:

 

where   and   are the expected values of   and  , respectively, and   and   are the standard deviations of   and  , respectively.


The empirical correlation   is an estimate of the correlation coefficient  . A distribution estimate for   is given by

 
where   is the Gaussian hypergeometric function and   . This density is both a Bayesian posterior density and an exact optimal confidence distribution density.[23][24]

See also

References

  1. ^ Croxton, Frederick Emory; Cowden, Dudley Johnstone; Klein, Sidney (1968) Applied General Statistics, Pitman. ISBN 9780273403159 (page 625)
  2. ^ Dietrich, Cornelius Frank (1991) Uncertainty, Calibration and Probability: The Statistics of Scientific and Industrial Measurement 2nd Edition, A. Higler. ISBN 9780750300605 (Page 331)
  3. ^ Aitken, Alexander Craig (1957) Statistical Mathematics 8th Edition. Oliver & Boyd. ISBN 9780050013007 (Page 95)
  4. ^ a b Rodgers, J. L.; Nicewander, W. A. (1988). "Thirteen ways to look at the correlation coefficient". The American Statistician. 42 (1): 59–66. doi:10.1080/00031305.1988.10475524. JSTOR 2685263.
  5. ^ Dowdy, S. and Wearden, S. (1983). "Statistics for Research", Wiley. ISBN 0-471-08602-9 pp 230
  6. ^ Francis, DP; Coats AJ; Gibson D (1999). "How high can a correlation coefficient be?". Int J Cardiol. 69 (2): 185–199. doi:10.1016/S0167-5273(99)00028-5. PMID 10549842.
  7. ^ a b Yule, G.U and Kendall, M.G. (1950), "An Introduction to the Theory of Statistics", 14th Edition (5th Impression 1968). Charles Griffin & Co. pp 258–270
  8. ^ Kendall, M. G. (1955) "Rank Correlation Methods", Charles Griffin & Co.
  9. ^ Mahdavi Damghani B. (2013). "The Non-Misleading Value of Inferred Correlation: An Introduction to the Cointelation Model". Wilmott Magazine. 2013 (67): 50–61. doi:10.1002/wilm.10252.
  10. ^ Székely, G. J. Rizzo; Bakirov, N. K. (2007). "Measuring and testing independence by correlation of distances". Annals of Statistics. 35 (6): 2769–2794. arXiv:0803.4101. doi:10.1214/009053607000000505. S2CID 5661488.
  11. ^ Székely, G. J.; Rizzo, M. L. (2009). "Brownian distance covariance". Annals of Applied Statistics. 3 (4): 1233–1303. arXiv:1010.0297. doi:10.1214/09-AOAS312. PMC 2889501. PMID 20574547.
  12. ^ Lopez-Paz D. and Hennig P. and Schölkopf B. (2013). "The Randomized Dependence Coefficient", "Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems" Reprint
  13. ^ Thorndike, Robert Ladd (1947). Research problems and techniques (Report No. 3). Washington DC: US Govt. print. off.
  14. ^ Nikolić, D; Muresan, RC; Feng, W; Singer, W (2012). "Scaled correlation analysis: a better way to compute a cross-correlogram". European Journal of Neuroscience. 35 (5): 1–21. doi:10.1111/j.1460-9568.2011.07987.x. PMID 22324876. S2CID 4694570.
  15. ^ Higham, Nicholas J. (2002). "Computing the nearest correlation matrix—a problem from finance". IMA Journal of Numerical Analysis. 22 (3): 329–343. CiteSeerX 10.1.1.661.2180. doi:10.1093/imanum/22.3.329.
  16. ^ "Portfolio Optimizer". portfoliooptimizer.io/. Retrieved 2021-01-30.
  17. ^ Borsdorf, Rudiger; Higham, Nicholas J.; Raydan, Marcos (2010). "Computing a Nearest Correlation Matrix with Factor Structure" (PDF). SIAM J. Matrix Anal. Appl. 31 (5): 2603–2622. doi:10.1137/090776718.
  18. ^ Qi, HOUDUO; Sun, DEFENG (2006). "A quadratically convergent Newton method for computing the nearest correlation matrix". SIAM J. Matrix Anal. Appl. 28 (2): 360–385. doi:10.1137/050624509.
  19. ^ Park, Kun Il (2018). Fundamentals of Probability and Stochastic Processes with Applications to Communications. Springer. ISBN 978-3-319-68074-3.
  20. ^ Aldrich, John (1995). "Correlations Genuine and Spurious in Pearson and Yule". Statistical Science. 10 (4): 364–376. doi:10.1214/ss/1177009870. JSTOR 2246135.
  21. ^ Mahdavi Damghani, Babak (2012). "The Misleading Value of Measured Correlation". Wilmott Magazine. 2012 (1): 64–73. doi:10.1002/wilm.10167. S2CID 154550363.
  22. ^ Anscombe, Francis J. (1973). "Graphs in statistical analysis". The American Statistician. 27 (1): 17–21. doi:10.2307/2682899. JSTOR 2682899.
  23. ^ Taraldsen, Gunnar (2021). "The Confidence Density for Correlation". Sankhya A. doi:10.1007/s13171-021-00267-y. ISSN 0976-8378. S2CID 244594067.
  24. ^ Taraldsen, Gunnar (2020). "Confidence in Correlation". doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.23673.49769. {{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires |journal= (help)

Further reading

  • Cohen, J.; Cohen P.; West, S.G. & Aiken, L.S. (2002). Applied multiple regression/correlation analysis for the behavioral sciences (3rd ed.). Psychology Press. ISBN 978-0-8058-2223-6.
  • "Correlation (in statistics)", Encyclopedia of Mathematics, EMS Press, 2001 [1994]
  • Oestreicher, J. & D. R. (February 26, 2015). Plague of Equals: A science thriller of international disease, politics and drug discovery. California: Omega Cat Press. p. 408. ISBN 978-0963175540.

External links

  • MathWorld page on the (cross-)correlation coefficient/s of a sample
  • Compute significance between two correlations, for the comparison of two correlation values.
  • . Archived from the original on 24 April 2021.
  • Proof that the Sample Bivariate Correlation has limits plus or minus 1
  • Interactive Flash simulation on the correlation of two normally distributed variables by Juha Puranen.
  • R-Psychologist Correlation visualization of correlation between two numeric variables

correlation, this, article, about, correlation, dependence, statistical, data, other, uses, disambiguation, statistics, correlation, dependence, statistical, relationship, whether, causal, between, random, variables, bivariate, data, although, broadest, sense,. This article is about correlation and dependence in statistical data For other uses see Correlation disambiguation In statistics correlation or dependence is any statistical relationship whether causal or not between two random variables or bivariate data Although in the broadest sense correlation may indicate any type of association in statistics it usually refers to the degree to which a pair of variables are linearly related Familiar examples of dependent phenomena include the correlation between the height of parents and their offspring and the correlation between the price of a good and the quantity the consumers are willing to purchase as it is depicted in the so called demand curve Several sets of x y points with the Pearson correlation coefficient of x and y for each set The correlation reflects the noisiness and direction of a linear relationship top row but not the slope of that relationship middle nor many aspects of nonlinear relationships bottom N B the figure in the center has a slope of 0 but in that case the correlation coefficient is undefined because the variance of Y is zero Correlations are useful because they can indicate a predictive relationship that can be exploited in practice For example an electrical utility may produce less power on a mild day based on the correlation between electricity demand and weather In this example there is a causal relationship because extreme weather causes people to use more electricity for heating or cooling However in general the presence of a correlation is not sufficient to infer the presence of a causal relationship i e correlation does not imply causation Formally random variables are dependent if they do not satisfy a mathematical property of probabilistic independence In informal parlance correlation is synonymous with dependence However when used in a technical sense correlation refers to any of several specific types of mathematical operations between the tested variables and their respective expected values Essentially correlation is the measure of how two or more variables are related to one another There are several correlation coefficients often denoted r displaystyle rho or r displaystyle r measuring the degree of correlation The most common of these is the Pearson correlation coefficient which is sensitive only to a linear relationship between two variables which may be present even when one variable is a nonlinear function of the other Other correlation coefficients such as Spearman s rank correlation have been developed to be more robust than Pearson s that is more sensitive to nonlinear relationships 1 2 3 Mutual information can also be applied to measure dependence between two variables Contents 1 Pearson s product moment coefficient 1 1 Correlation and independence 1 2 Sample correlation coefficient 2 Example 3 Rank correlation coefficients 4 Other measures of dependence among random variables 5 Sensitivity to the data distribution 6 Correlation matrices 6 1 Nearest valid correlation matrix 7 Uncorrelatedness and independence of stochastic processes 8 Common misconceptions 8 1 Correlation and causality 8 2 Simple linear correlations 9 Bivariate normal distribution 10 See also 11 References 12 Further reading 13 External linksPearson s product moment coefficient EditMain article Pearson product moment correlation coefficient Example scatterplots of various datasets with various correlation coefficients The most familiar measure of dependence between two quantities is the Pearson product moment correlation coefficient PPMCC or Pearson s correlation coefficient commonly called simply the correlation coefficient It is obtained by taking the ratio of the covariance of the two variables in question of our numerical dataset normalized to the square root of their variances Mathematically one simply divides the covariance of the two variables by the product of their standard deviations Karl Pearson developed the coefficient from a similar but slightly different idea by Francis Galton 4 A Pearson product moment correlation coefficient attempts to establish a line of best fit through a dataset of two variables by essentially laying out the expected values and the resulting Pearson s correlation coefficient indicates how far away the actual dataset is from the expected values Depending on the sign of our Pearson s correlation coefficient we can end up with either a negative or positive correlation if there is any sort of relationship between the variables of our data set The population correlation coefficient r X Y displaystyle rho X Y between two random variables X displaystyle X and Y displaystyle Y with expected values m X displaystyle mu X and m Y displaystyle mu Y and standard deviations s X displaystyle sigma X and s Y displaystyle sigma Y is defined as r X Y corr X Y cov X Y s X s Y E X m X Y m Y s X s Y if s X s Y gt 0 displaystyle rho X Y operatorname corr X Y operatorname cov X Y over sigma X sigma Y operatorname E X mu X Y mu Y over sigma X sigma Y quad text if sigma X sigma Y gt 0 where E displaystyle operatorname E is the expected value operator cov displaystyle operatorname cov means covariance and corr displaystyle operatorname corr is a widely used alternative notation for the correlation coefficient The Pearson correlation is defined only if both standard deviations are finite and positive An alternative formula purely in terms of moments is r X Y E X Y E X E Y E X 2 E X 2 E Y 2 E Y 2 displaystyle rho X Y operatorname E XY operatorname E X operatorname E Y over sqrt operatorname E X 2 operatorname E X 2 cdot sqrt operatorname E Y 2 operatorname E Y 2 Correlation and independence Edit It is a corollary of the Cauchy Schwarz inequality that the absolute value of the Pearson correlation coefficient is not bigger than 1 Therefore the value of a correlation coefficient ranges between 1 and 1 The correlation coefficient is 1 in the case of a perfect direct increasing linear relationship correlation 1 in the case of a perfect inverse decreasing linear relationship anti correlation 5 and some value in the open interval 1 1 displaystyle 1 1 in all other cases indicating the degree of linear dependence between the variables As it approaches zero there is less of a relationship closer to uncorrelated The closer the coefficient is to either 1 or 1 the stronger the correlation between the variables If the variables are independent Pearson s correlation coefficient is 0 but the converse is not true because the correlation coefficient detects only linear dependencies between two variables X Y independent r X Y 0 X Y uncorrelated r X Y 0 X Y uncorrelated X Y independent displaystyle begin aligned X Y text independent quad amp Rightarrow quad rho X Y 0 quad X Y text uncorrelated rho X Y 0 quad X Y text uncorrelated quad amp nRightarrow quad X Y text independent end aligned For example suppose the random variable X displaystyle X is symmetrically distributed about zero and Y X 2 displaystyle Y X 2 Then Y displaystyle Y is completely determined by X displaystyle X so that X displaystyle X and Y displaystyle Y are perfectly dependent but their correlation is zero they are uncorrelated However in the special case when X displaystyle X and Y displaystyle Y are jointly normal uncorrelatedness is equivalent to independence Even though uncorrelated data does not necessarily imply independence one can check if random variables are independent if their mutual information is 0 Sample correlation coefficient Edit Given a series of n displaystyle n measurements of the pair X i Y i displaystyle X i Y i indexed by i 1 n displaystyle i 1 ldots n the sample correlation coefficient can be used to estimate the population Pearson correlation r X Y displaystyle rho X Y between X displaystyle X and Y displaystyle Y The sample correlation coefficient is defined as r x y d e f i 1 n x i x y i y n 1 s x s y i 1 n x i x y i y i 1 n x i x 2 i 1 n y i y 2 displaystyle r xy quad overset underset mathrm def quad frac sum limits i 1 n x i bar x y i bar y n 1 s x s y frac sum limits i 1 n x i bar x y i bar y sqrt sum limits i 1 n x i bar x 2 sum limits i 1 n y i bar y 2 where x displaystyle overline x and y displaystyle overline y are the sample means of X displaystyle X and Y displaystyle Y and s x displaystyle s x and s y displaystyle s y are the corrected sample standard deviations of X displaystyle X and Y displaystyle Y Equivalent expressions for r x y displaystyle r xy are r x y x i y i n x y n s x s y n x i y i x i y i n x i 2 x i 2 n y i 2 y i 2 displaystyle begin aligned r xy amp frac sum x i y i n bar x bar y ns x s y 5pt amp frac n sum x i y i sum x i sum y i sqrt n sum x i 2 sum x i 2 sqrt n sum y i 2 sum y i 2 end aligned where s x displaystyle s x and s y displaystyle s y are the uncorrected sample standard deviations of X displaystyle X and Y displaystyle Y If x displaystyle x and y displaystyle y are results of measurements that contain measurement error the realistic limits on the correlation coefficient are not 1 to 1 but a smaller range 6 For the case of a linear model with a single independent variable the coefficient of determination R squared is the square of r x y displaystyle r xy Pearson s product moment coefficient Example EditConsider the joint probability distribution of X and Y given in the table below P X x Y y displaystyle mathrm P X x Y y yx 1 0 10 0 1 3 01 1 3 0 1 3For this joint distribution the marginal distributions are P X x 1 3 for x 0 2 3 for x 1 displaystyle mathrm P X x begin cases frac 1 3 amp quad text for x 0 frac 2 3 amp quad text for x 1 end cases P Y y 1 3 for y 1 1 3 for y 0 1 3 for y 1 displaystyle mathrm P Y y begin cases frac 1 3 amp quad text for y 1 frac 1 3 amp quad text for y 0 frac 1 3 amp quad text for y 1 end cases This yields the following expectations and variances m X 2 3 displaystyle mu X frac 2 3 m Y 0 displaystyle mu Y 0 s X 2 2 9 displaystyle sigma X 2 frac 2 9 s Y 2 2 3 displaystyle sigma Y 2 frac 2 3 Therefore r X Y 1 s X s Y E X m X Y m Y 1 s X s Y x y x m X y m Y P X x Y y 1 2 3 1 0 1 3 0 2 3 0 0 1 3 1 2 3 1 0 1 3 0 displaystyle begin aligned rho X Y amp frac 1 sigma X sigma Y mathrm E X mu X Y mu Y 5pt amp frac 1 sigma X sigma Y sum x y x mu X y mu Y mathrm P X x Y y 5pt amp left 1 frac 2 3 right 1 0 frac 1 3 left 0 frac 2 3 right 0 0 frac 1 3 left 1 frac 2 3 right 1 0 frac 1 3 0 end aligned Rank correlation coefficients EditMain articles Spearman s rank correlation coefficient and Kendall tau rank correlation coefficient Rank correlation coefficients such as Spearman s rank correlation coefficient and Kendall s rank correlation coefficient t measure the extent to which as one variable increases the other variable tends to increase without requiring that increase to be represented by a linear relationship If as the one variable increases the other decreases the rank correlation coefficients will be negative It is common to regard these rank correlation coefficients as alternatives to Pearson s coefficient used either to reduce the amount of calculation or to make the coefficient less sensitive to non normality in distributions However this view has little mathematical basis as rank correlation coefficients measure a different type of relationship than the Pearson product moment correlation coefficient and are best seen as measures of a different type of association rather than as an alternative measure of the population correlation coefficient 7 8 To illustrate the nature of rank correlation and its difference from linear correlation consider the following four pairs of numbers x y displaystyle x y 0 1 10 100 101 500 102 2000 As we go from each pair to the next pair x displaystyle x increases and so does y displaystyle y This relationship is perfect in the sense that an increase in x displaystyle x is always accompanied by an increase in y displaystyle y This means that we have a perfect rank correlation and both Spearman s and Kendall s correlation coefficients are 1 whereas in this example Pearson product moment correlation coefficient is 0 7544 indicating that the points are far from lying on a straight line In the same way if y displaystyle y always decreases when x displaystyle x increases the rank correlation coefficients will be 1 while the Pearson product moment correlation coefficient may or may not be close to 1 depending on how close the points are to a straight line Although in the extreme cases of perfect rank correlation the two coefficients are both equal being both 1 or both 1 this is not generally the case and so values of the two coefficients cannot meaningfully be compared 7 For example for the three pairs 1 1 2 3 3 2 Spearman s coefficient is 1 2 while Kendall s coefficient is 1 3 Other measures of dependence among random variables EditSee also Pearson product moment correlation coefficient Variants The information given by a correlation coefficient is not enough to define the dependence structure between random variables 9 The correlation coefficient completely defines the dependence structure only in very particular cases for example when the distribution is a multivariate normal distribution See diagram above In the case of elliptical distributions it characterizes the hyper ellipses of equal density however it does not completely characterize the dependence structure for example a multivariate t distribution s degrees of freedom determine the level of tail dependence Distance correlation 10 11 was introduced to address the deficiency of Pearson s correlation that it can be zero for dependent random variables zero distance correlation implies independence The Randomized Dependence Coefficient 12 is a computationally efficient copula based measure of dependence between multivariate random variables RDC is invariant with respect to non linear scalings of random variables is capable of discovering a wide range of functional association patterns and takes value zero at independence For two binary variables the odds ratio measures their dependence and takes range non negative numbers possibly infinity 0 displaystyle 0 infty Related statistics such as Yule s Y and Yule s Q normalize this to the correlation like range 1 1 displaystyle 1 1 The odds ratio is generalized by the logistic model to model cases where the dependent variables are discrete and there may be one or more independent variables The correlation ratio entropy based mutual information total correlation dual total correlation and polychoric correlation are all also capable of detecting more general dependencies as is consideration of the copula between them while the coefficient of determination generalizes the correlation coefficient to multiple regression Sensitivity to the data distribution EditFurther information Pearson product moment correlation coefficient Sensitivity to the data distribution The degree of dependence between variables X and Y does not depend on the scale on which the variables are expressed That is if we are analyzing the relationship between X and Y most correlation measures are unaffected by transforming X to a bX and Y to c dY where a b c and d are constants b and d being positive This is true of some correlation statistics as well as their population analogues Some correlation statistics such as the rank correlation coefficient are also invariant to monotone transformations of the marginal distributions of X and or Y Pearson Spearman correlation coefficients between X and Y are shown when the two variables ranges are unrestricted and when the range of X is restricted to the interval 0 1 Most correlation measures are sensitive to the manner in which X and Y are sampled Dependencies tend to be stronger if viewed over a wider range of values Thus if we consider the correlation coefficient between the heights of fathers and their sons over all adult males and compare it to the same correlation coefficient calculated when the fathers are selected to be between 165 cm and 170 cm in height the correlation will be weaker in the latter case Several techniques have been developed that attempt to correct for range restriction in one or both variables and are commonly used in meta analysis the most common are Thorndike s case II and case III equations 13 Various correlation measures in use may be undefined for certain joint distributions of X and Y For example the Pearson correlation coefficient is defined in terms of moments and hence will be undefined if the moments are undefined Measures of dependence based on quantiles are always defined Sample based statistics intended to estimate population measures of dependence may or may not have desirable statistical properties such as being unbiased or asymptotically consistent based on the spatial structure of the population from which the data were sampled Sensitivity to the data distribution can be used to an advantage For example scaled correlation is designed to use the sensitivity to the range in order to pick out correlations between fast components of time series 14 By reducing the range of values in a controlled manner the correlations on long time scale are filtered out and only the correlations on short time scales are revealed Correlation matrices EditThe correlation matrix of n displaystyle n random variables X 1 X n displaystyle X 1 ldots X n is the n n displaystyle n times n matrix C displaystyle C whose i j displaystyle i j entry is c i j corr X i X j cov X i X j s X i s X j if s X i s X j gt 0 displaystyle c ij operatorname corr X i X j frac operatorname cov X i X j sigma X i sigma X j quad text if sigma X i sigma X j gt 0 Thus the diagonal entries are all identically one If the measures of correlation used are product moment coefficients the correlation matrix is the same as the covariance matrix of the standardized random variables X i s X i displaystyle X i sigma X i for i 1 n displaystyle i 1 dots n This applies both to the matrix of population correlations in which case s displaystyle sigma is the population standard deviation and to the matrix of sample correlations in which case s displaystyle sigma denotes the sample standard deviation Consequently each is necessarily a positive semidefinite matrix Moreover the correlation matrix is strictly positive definite if no variable can have all its values exactly generated as a linear function of the values of the others The correlation matrix is symmetric because the correlation between X i displaystyle X i and X j displaystyle X j is the same as the correlation between X j displaystyle X j and X i displaystyle X i A correlation matrix appears for example in one formula for the coefficient of multiple determination a measure of goodness of fit in multiple regression In statistical modelling correlation matrices representing the relationships between variables are categorized into different correlation structures which are distinguished by factors such as the number of parameters required to estimate them For example in an exchangeable correlation matrix all pairs of variables are modeled as having the same correlation so all non diagonal elements of the matrix are equal to each other On the other hand an autoregressive matrix is often used when variables represent a time series since correlations are likely to be greater when measurements are closer in time Other examples include independent unstructured M dependent and Toeplitz In exploratory data analysis the iconography of correlations consists in replacing a correlation matrix by a diagram where the remarkable correlations are represented by a solid line positive correlation or a dotted line negative correlation Nearest valid correlation matrix Edit In some applications e g building data models from only partially observed data one wants to find the nearest correlation matrix to an approximate correlation matrix e g a matrix which typically lacks semi definite positiveness due to the way it has been computed In 2002 Higham 15 formalized the notion of nearness using the Frobenius norm and provided a method for computing the nearest correlation matrix using the Dykstra s projection algorithm of which an implementation is available as an online Web API 16 This sparked interest in the subject with new theoretical e g computing the nearest correlation matrix with factor structure 17 and numerical e g usage the Newton s method for computing the nearest correlation matrix 18 results obtained in the subsequent years Uncorrelatedness and independence of stochastic processes EditSimilarly for two stochastic processes X t t T displaystyle left X t right t in mathcal T and Y t t T displaystyle left Y t right t in mathcal T If they are independent then they are uncorrelated 19 p 151 The opposite of this statement might not be true Even if two variables are uncorrelated they might not be independent to each other Common misconceptions EditCorrelation and causality Edit Main article Correlation does not imply causation See also Normally distributed and uncorrelated does not imply independent The conventional dictum that correlation does not imply causation means that correlation cannot be used by itself to infer a causal relationship between the variables 20 This dictum should not be taken to mean that correlations cannot indicate the potential existence of causal relations However the causes underlying the correlation if any may be indirect and unknown and high correlations also overlap with identity relations tautologies where no causal process exists Consequently a correlation between two variables is not a sufficient condition to establish a causal relationship in either direction A correlation between age and height in children is fairly causally transparent but a correlation between mood and health in people is less so Does improved mood lead to improved health or does good health lead to good mood or both Or does some other factor underlie both In other words a correlation can be taken as evidence for a possible causal relationship but cannot indicate what the causal relationship if any might be Simple linear correlations Edit Anscombe s quartet four sets of data with the same correlation of 0 816 The Pearson correlation coefficient indicates the strength of a linear relationship between two variables but its value generally does not completely characterize their relationship 21 In particular if the conditional mean of Y displaystyle Y given X displaystyle X denoted E Y X displaystyle operatorname E Y mid X is not linear in X displaystyle X the correlation coefficient will not fully determine the form of E Y X displaystyle operatorname E Y mid X The adjacent image shows scatter plots of Anscombe s quartet a set of four different pairs of variables created by Francis Anscombe 22 The four y displaystyle y variables have the same mean 7 5 variance 4 12 correlation 0 816 and regression line y 3 0 5x However as can be seen on the plots the distribution of the variables is very different The first one top left seems to be distributed normally and corresponds to what one would expect when considering two variables correlated and following the assumption of normality The second one top right is not distributed normally while an obvious relationship between the two variables can be observed it is not linear In this case the Pearson correlation coefficient does not indicate that there is an exact functional relationship only the extent to which that relationship can be approximated by a linear relationship In the third case bottom left the linear relationship is perfect except for one outlier which exerts enough influence to lower the correlation coefficient from 1 to 0 816 Finally the fourth example bottom right shows another example when one outlier is enough to produce a high correlation coefficient even though the relationship between the two variables is not linear These examples indicate that the correlation coefficient as a summary statistic cannot replace visual examination of the data The examples are sometimes said to demonstrate that the Pearson correlation assumes that the data follow a normal distribution but this is only partially correct 4 The Pearson correlation can be accurately calculated for any distribution that has a finite covariance matrix which includes most distributions encountered in practice However the Pearson correlation coefficient taken together with the sample mean and variance is only a sufficient statistic if the data is drawn from a multivariate normal distribution As a result the Pearson correlation coefficient fully characterizes the relationship between variables if and only if the data are drawn from a multivariate normal distribution Bivariate normal distribution EditIf a pair X Y displaystyle X Y of random variables follows a bivariate normal distribution the conditional mean E X Y displaystyle operatorname E X mid Y is a linear function of Y displaystyle Y and the conditional mean E Y X displaystyle operatorname E Y mid X is a linear function of X displaystyle X The correlation coefficient r X Y displaystyle rho X Y between X displaystyle X and Y displaystyle Y along with the marginal means and variances of X displaystyle X and Y displaystyle Y determines this linear relationship E Y X E Y r X Y s Y X E X s X displaystyle operatorname E Y mid X operatorname E Y rho X Y cdot sigma Y frac X operatorname E X sigma X where E X displaystyle operatorname E X and E Y displaystyle operatorname E Y are the expected values of X displaystyle X and Y displaystyle Y respectively and s X displaystyle sigma X and s Y displaystyle sigma Y are the standard deviations of X displaystyle X and Y displaystyle Y respectively The empirical correlation r displaystyle r is an estimate of the correlation coefficient r displaystyle rho A distribution estimate for r displaystyle rho is given byp r r G n 1 2 p G n 1 2 1 r 2 n 1 2 1 r 2 n 2 2 1 r r 1 2 n 2 F 3 2 1 2 n 1 2 1 r r 2 displaystyle pi rho r frac Gamma nu 1 sqrt 2 pi Gamma nu frac 1 2 1 r 2 frac nu 1 2 cdot 1 rho 2 frac nu 2 2 cdot 1 r rho frac 1 2 nu 2 F left frac 3 2 frac 1 2 nu frac 1 2 frac 1 r rho 2 right where F displaystyle F is the Gaussian hypergeometric function and n N 1 gt 1 displaystyle nu N 1 gt 1 This density is both a Bayesian posterior density and an exact optimal confidence distribution density 23 24 See also Edit Mathematics portalFurther information Correlation disambiguation Autocorrelation Canonical correlation Coefficient of determination Cointegration Concordance correlation coefficient Cophenetic correlation Correlation function Correlation gap Covariance Covariance and correlation Cross correlation Ecological correlation Fraction of variance unexplained Genetic correlation Goodman and Kruskal s lambda Iconography of correlations Illusory correlation Interclass correlation Intraclass correlation Lift data mining Mean dependence Modifiable areal unit problem Multiple correlation Point biserial correlation coefficient Quadrant count ratio Spurious correlation Statistical correlation ratio SubindependenceReferences Edit Croxton Frederick Emory Cowden Dudley Johnstone Klein Sidney 1968 Applied General Statistics Pitman ISBN 9780273403159 page 625 Dietrich Cornelius Frank 1991 Uncertainty Calibration and Probability The Statistics of Scientific and Industrial Measurement 2nd Edition A Higler ISBN 9780750300605 Page 331 Aitken Alexander Craig 1957 Statistical Mathematics 8th Edition Oliver amp Boyd ISBN 9780050013007 Page 95 a b Rodgers J L Nicewander W A 1988 Thirteen ways to look at the correlation coefficient The American Statistician 42 1 59 66 doi 10 1080 00031305 1988 10475524 JSTOR 2685263 Dowdy S and Wearden S 1983 Statistics for Research Wiley ISBN 0 471 08602 9 pp 230 Francis DP Coats AJ Gibson D 1999 How high can a correlation coefficient be Int J Cardiol 69 2 185 199 doi 10 1016 S0167 5273 99 00028 5 PMID 10549842 a b Yule G U and Kendall M G 1950 An Introduction to the Theory of Statistics 14th Edition 5th Impression 1968 Charles Griffin amp Co pp 258 270 Kendall M G 1955 Rank Correlation Methods Charles Griffin amp Co Mahdavi Damghani B 2013 The Non Misleading Value of Inferred Correlation An Introduction to the Cointelation Model Wilmott Magazine 2013 67 50 61 doi 10 1002 wilm 10252 Szekely G J Rizzo Bakirov N K 2007 Measuring and testing independence by correlation of distances Annals of Statistics 35 6 2769 2794 arXiv 0803 4101 doi 10 1214 009053607000000505 S2CID 5661488 Szekely G J Rizzo M L 2009 Brownian distance covariance Annals of Applied Statistics 3 4 1233 1303 arXiv 1010 0297 doi 10 1214 09 AOAS312 PMC 2889501 PMID 20574547 Lopez Paz D and Hennig P and Scholkopf B 2013 The Randomized Dependence Coefficient Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems Reprint Thorndike Robert Ladd 1947 Research problems and techniques Report No 3 Washington DC US Govt print off Nikolic D Muresan RC Feng W Singer W 2012 Scaled correlation analysis a better way to compute a cross correlogram European Journal of Neuroscience 35 5 1 21 doi 10 1111 j 1460 9568 2011 07987 x PMID 22324876 S2CID 4694570 Higham Nicholas J 2002 Computing the nearest correlation matrix a problem from finance IMA Journal of Numerical Analysis 22 3 329 343 CiteSeerX 10 1 1 661 2180 doi 10 1093 imanum 22 3 329 Portfolio Optimizer portfoliooptimizer io Retrieved 2021 01 30 Borsdorf Rudiger Higham Nicholas J Raydan Marcos 2010 Computing a Nearest Correlation Matrix with Factor Structure PDF SIAM J Matrix Anal Appl 31 5 2603 2622 doi 10 1137 090776718 Qi HOUDUO Sun DEFENG 2006 A quadratically convergent Newton method for computing the nearest correlation matrix SIAM J Matrix Anal Appl 28 2 360 385 doi 10 1137 050624509 Park Kun Il 2018 Fundamentals of Probability and Stochastic Processes with Applications to Communications Springer ISBN 978 3 319 68074 3 Aldrich John 1995 Correlations Genuine and Spurious in Pearson and Yule Statistical Science 10 4 364 376 doi 10 1214 ss 1177009870 JSTOR 2246135 Mahdavi Damghani Babak 2012 The Misleading Value of Measured Correlation Wilmott Magazine 2012 1 64 73 doi 10 1002 wilm 10167 S2CID 154550363 Anscombe Francis J 1973 Graphs in statistical analysis The American Statistician 27 1 17 21 doi 10 2307 2682899 JSTOR 2682899 Taraldsen Gunnar 2021 The Confidence Density for Correlation Sankhya A doi 10 1007 s13171 021 00267 y ISSN 0976 8378 S2CID 244594067 Taraldsen Gunnar 2020 Confidence in Correlation doi 10 13140 RG 2 2 23673 49769 a href Template Cite journal html title Template Cite journal cite journal a Cite journal requires journal help Further reading EditCohen J Cohen P West S G amp Aiken L S 2002 Applied multiple regression correlation analysis for the behavioral sciences 3rd ed Psychology Press ISBN 978 0 8058 2223 6 Correlation in statistics Encyclopedia of Mathematics EMS Press 2001 1994 Oestreicher J amp D R February 26 2015 Plague of Equals A science thriller of international disease politics and drug discovery California Omega Cat Press p 408 ISBN 978 0963175540 External links Edit Look up correlation or dependence in Wiktionary the free dictionary Wikimedia Commons has media related to Correlation Wikiversity has learning resources about Correlation MathWorld page on the cross correlation coefficient s of a sample Compute significance between two correlations for the comparison of two correlation values A MATLAB Toolbox for computing Weighted Correlation Coefficients Archived from the original on 24 April 2021 Proof that the Sample Bivariate Correlation has limits plus or minus 1 Interactive Flash simulation on the correlation of two normally distributed variables by Juha Puranen Correlation analysis Biomedical Statistics R Psychologist Correlation visualization of correlation between two numeric variables Retrieved from https en wikipedia org w index php title Correlation amp oldid 1149809031, wikipedia, wiki, book, books, 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