2024 Georgian parliamentary election

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Georgia on 26 October 2024.^[1][2]

2024 Georgian parliamentary election

← 2020 26 October 2024 2028 →

All 150 seats in Parliament 76 seats needed for a majority

Party Leader Current seats Georgian Dream Irakli Garibashvili 75 UNM Levan Khabeishvili 20 People's Power Sozar Subari 9 For Georgia Giorgi Gakharia 5 Girchi Iago Khvichia 4 European Socialists Fridon Injia 4 State for the People Nika Machutadze 3 Progress and Freedom Kakha Okriashvili 3 Lelo Mamuka Khazaradze 2 Strategy Builder Giorgi Vashadze 2 Citizens Aleko Elisashvili 2 NDP Bachuki Kardava 1 VG Gubaz Sanikidze 1 Republican Party of Georgia Khatuna Samnidze 1 Law and Justice Tako Charkviani 1 Independents – 9 Incumbent Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze Georgian Dream

Background

Political context

By the time of elections, Georgian Dream (GD) had been the ruling party in Georgia since defeating Mikheil Saakashvili's United National Movement (UNM) in the 2012 parliamentary election. Announcing its plans to pursue a policy of joining the European Union and NATO, the Georgian Dream has also professed a more conciliatory approach towards Russia compared to its anti-Russian opponents.^[3]

However, the geopolitical strains of war in Ukraine and Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict made it more difficult to maintain a "balancing act", amid the statements from Ukrainian politicians that Georgia would have "greatly aided" Ukraine by opening a "second front" against Russia^[4] and the Western efforts to isolate Russia with international sanctions.

The Georgian government condemned Russian actions and provided humanitarian assistance to Ukraine, but did not join sanctions against Russia, which allowed an influx of Russian capital and highly skilled Russians dodging the military mobilization. Russia, in turn, did not approve the proposal of Georgia's breakaway de facto South Ossetian republic to hold a referendum on joining the Russian Federation^[5] and, despite otherwise hostile relations, has not put Georgia on its Unfriendly Countries List.^[6]

However, in June 2022, the European Union refused to approve Georgia's application to join the union, citing an alleged media censorship and the government's refusal to join the international sanctions on Russia.^[7] This led to a mobilization on behalf of the opposition against the government.^[8] In turn, a sovereignist faction People’s Power broke off the Georgian Dream in August 2022, and proposed a legislation to regulate a foreign influence by creating a special registry to monitor politically active foreign-funded organizations, many of which promote democracy in Georgia.^[9][10] While the government claimed that the bill was necessary for public disclosure and transparency, the opposition and civil society have mobilized mass citizen support for democracy and saying that it would have jeopardized the Euro-Atlantic Integration, ultimately leading to the Parliament withdrawing the bill.^[11]

Amid riots in Tbilisi, Russian Foreign Ministry issued a statement, cautioning against democracy in Georgia,^[12] with some Russian politicians suggesting Russia might use military means in case of "instability on Russian border". In September 2023, the State Security Service of Georgia claimed to have uncovered the plans of the opposition and the Western-funded groups to stage a coup in Georgia with the support of democratic Georgian oppositionist politicians.^[13][14] This in turn led to the pro-Russian Georgian opposition Conservative Movement party and the media channel Alt-Info starting to mobilize "Anti-Maidan movement" to counter the alleged coup.^[15]

However, in December 2023, the European Union decided to grant Georgia a candidate status following a release from prison of the oppositionist journalist Nika Gvaramia arrested on charges of abuse of power and embezzlement, and the Parliament's decision to turn down an impeachment proceeding against the pro-oppositionist president Salome Zourabichvili.^[16][17][18] In late December 2023, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili summerized the year by saying that the government managed to "preserve the peace" amid a threat of destabilization caused by "radical groups and hostile forces operating within the country",^[19] and also to secure a EU candidate status for Georgia.^[20]

Parties

The ruling Georgian Dream party will seek to get a fourth term in office by winning the election.^[21]

In January 2023, Levan Khabeishvili unseated Nika Melia from the position of the United National Movement chairman after winning internal party elections. Accusing Khabeishvili of being a protégé of Davit Kezerashvili, a shadowy businessman, Melia announced a break with the UNM and plans for his own party in December 2023.^[22]

On 20 July 2023, the United National Movement, the largest opposition party, announced an alliance with the Strategy Aghmashenebeli of Giorgi Vashadze.^[23] According to Khabeishvili, the coalition, named Victory Platform, will center around former president Mikheil Saakashvili. Imprisoned on charges of abuse of power and violence, Saakashvili will lead his party in the election from prison.^[24]

On 30 December 2023, Bidzina Ivanishvili, an influential businessman and a founder of the Georgian Dream party, announced his return to politics as a honorary chairman of Georgian Dream, suggesting he would take an active role in the election campaign.^[25]

On 8 February 2024, Irakli Kobakhidze was confirmed by the Parliament as the new Prime Minister of Georgia from the ruling Georgian Dream party.^[26]

In March 2024, the People's Power movement was registered as the political party, and it is expected to run in the election.^[27]

On 11 April, the Public Registry revoked registration of the Conservative Movement party, banning it from participating in the election.^[28]

Electoral system

The Parliament of Georgia is composed of 150 members, elected for a term of four years.

As stipulated by the constitutional amendments which were adopted on 26 September 2017, the 2024 election will mark the move to a fully proportional system with a 5% minimal threshold for parties to enter parliament.^[29][30][31]

A similar seat distribution method as used in previous elections is being applied for the proportional system.^[32] For the 2024 election with 150-member proportional representation, the method involves multiplying the number of votes by 150 and then dividing it by the sum of votes received by all parties which passed 5% threshold (including by the votes of party for which the number of seats is determined with this calculation) to determine a number of seats the party will get in the parliament. If after these calculations for all parties the number of total seats distributed is still below 150, the remaining seats will be proportionally distributed among parties that crossed the 5% electoral threshold.^[33]

On 6 February 2023, the Central Election Commission of Georgia adopted a decree introducing an electronic voter registration and voting system on most of the polling stations.^[34]

Opinion polls

 

Local regression trend line of poll results (excluding undecideds and abstentions) since the last parliamentary election to the present day, with each line corresponding to a political party.

Date	Sample size	Pollster	GD	VP		EG	Lelo	APG	NPC-Girchi	Citizens	SLP	Ahali	For Georgia	Girchi-Droa		For the People	CM/Alt Info	PP	No party	Others	N/A	Lead
				UNM	SA									Girchi-MF	Droa
1–10 April 2024	1,601	ISSA	37.4	18.8		2.3	4.7	0.6	1.7	2.2	2.7	13.8	5.2	1.7		1.8	2.2	0.6	-	4.3	-	18.6
11–18 March 2024	1,711	Gorbi	60.4	12.6		4.5	4.7	0.9	1.4	0.6	0.6	1.6	3.7	3		-	-	-	-	6	-	47.8
1–22 December 2023	1,500	Edison Research	36.6	21.5		0.7	6.7	1.7	2.9	1.7	4.7	-	8.8	5		3.7	3	2.5	-	0.5	-	15.1
20 October–6 November 2023	1,000	Edison Research	37	21		1	5	2	4	3	4	-	9	4		4	3	3	-	1	-	16
30 September–20 October 2023	1,212	Gorbi	55	20		3	4	2	1	1	2	-	3	4		-	-	-	-	5	-	35
14 September–14 October 2023	1,200	IRI	25	16		1	2	1	3	2	2	-	4	2		2	1	1	24	1	5	9
7–24 September 2023	1,500	Edison Research	37	22		1	4	1	4	2	4	-	10	4		4	3	3	-	<1	-	15
25 May–14 June 2023	1,500	Edison Research	37	25	4	1	3	1	3	2	5	-	6	4	2	3	2	2	-	-	-	12
22 April–7 May 2023	1,212	GORBI	53	19	4	2	2	2	1	2	3	-	2	3	-	-	-	-	-	7	-	34
17–23 March 2023	1,032	NDI	20	5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	34	6	35	15
4–23 March 2023	1,500	IRI	19	14	2	1	2	<1	2	2	2	-	3	3	1	2	1	<1	25	<1	7	5
3–20 December 2022	2,519	NDI	25	6	1	-	1	1	1	1	2	-	2	2	1	1	1	-	39	-	17	19
17–30 November 2022	2,024	GORBI	52	23	3	3	3	3	2	2	1	-	1	3	-	-	-	-	-	4	-	29
13 September–2 October 2022	1,500	IRI	25	12	1	-	2	2	2	1	2	-	3	3	2	2	1	-	17	2	23	13
4–24 March 2022	1,486	IRI	31	16	2	-	2	1	-	1	2	-	4	1	2	2	1	-	15	2	19	15
2020 election			48.22	27.18	3.15	3.79	3.15	3.14	2.89	1.33	1.00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	6.13	-	21.04

References

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2. "CEC releases information on registration of political parties for 2024 elections". 1TV. Retrieved 2024-04-07.
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5. "South Ossetia again mulls referendum on joining Russia, but even Moscow doesn't seem keen". Emerging Europe.
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7. "European Council conclusions on Ukraine, the membership applications of Ukraine, the Republic of Moldova and Georgia, Western Balkans and external relations, 23 June 2022". European Council.
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15. "Alt-Info". Media Meter.
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19. ""We have avoided war". Georgian Prime Minister summarizes the results of the year". Jam News. Retrieved 2023-03-06.
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21. ""Saakashvili is an outgoing figure in Georgian politics." Experts on split in National Movement party". Jam News. 12 December 2023.
22. Former UNM Chair Quits Party, Reveals Plans to Launch his Own, civil.ge, retrieved 8 December 2023
23. "UNM, Strategy Agmashenebeli Strike Pre-Election Deal". Civil Georgia. 21 July 2023.
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28. "Georgia's Public Registry revokes registration of controversial Conservative Movement". Front News Georgia. 8 April 2024. Retrieved 11 April 2024.
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30. "Parliament Approves Constitution on Final Reading". Civil Georgia. 27 September 2017. Retrieved 27 September 2017.
31. "Key Points of Newly Adopted Constitution". Civil Georgia. 27 September 2017. Retrieved 27 September 2017.
32. "საპარლამენტო არჩევნების ისტორია". Publika (in Georgian). 30 October 2020. Retrieved 20 February 2022.
33. "Election Code of Georgia, article 125". Matsne. 9 February 2023. Retrieved 20 February 2023.
34. "90% of Voters Will Vote Electronically in 2024 Parliamentary Elections". Civil Georgia. 6 February 2023. Retrieved 10 February 2023.