2006 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania
The 2006 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania was held on November 7, 2006. Incumbent Republican Rick Santorum ran for re-election to a third term, but was defeated by Democratic State Treasurer Bob Casey, Jr., the son of former Pennsylvania governor Bob Casey Sr.[1] Casey was elected to serve between January 3, 2007 and January 3, 2013.
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Casey: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Santorum: 50–60% 60–70% | |||||||||||||||||
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Santorum trailed Casey in every public poll taken during the campaign. Casey's margin of victory (nearly 18% of those who voted) was the largest ever for a Democratic Senate nominee in Pennsylvania, the largest margin of victory for a Senate challenger in the 2006 elections, and the largest general election margin of defeat for an incumbent U.S. Senator since 1980.[2] Casey was the first Pennsylvania Democrat to win a full term in the Senate since Joseph S. Clark Jr. in 1962, and the first Democrat to win a Senate election since 1991. He was the first Democrat to win a full term for this seat since 1940.
As of 2024, this was the last time the following counties have voted Democratic in a Senate election: Greene, Washington, Westmoreland, Somerset, Lawrence, Mercer, Armstrong, Indiana, Cambria, Warren, Forest, Elk, Clearfield, Clinton, Schuylkill, Columbia, and Carbon. To date, this is the last time that an incumbent Senator from Pennsylvania lost re-election.
Republican primary edit
Candidates edit
- Rick Santorum, incumbent U.S. Senator and former U.S. congressman for Pennsylvania's 18th congressional district (1991–1995)
Withdrew edit
- John Featherman, Libertarian nominee for U.S. Senate in 2000
Featherman withdrew his candidacy after a Republican party petition challenge because he did not have the necessary number of signatures to get on the ballot. As a result, Santorum won the Republican nomination unopposed.[3]
Results edit
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Rick Santorum | 561,952 | 100.00% | |
| Total votes | 561,952 | 100.00% | ||
Democratic primary edit
The Democratic primary was held May 16, 2006.
Candidates edit
- Bob Casey, Jr., State Treasurer, former State Auditor General, candidate for Governor in 2002 and son of former Governor Bob Casey, Sr.[5]
- Chuck Pennacchio, University of the Arts history professor
- Alan Sandals, attorney
Declined edit
- Barbara Hafer, former State Auditor General and State Treasurer[6]
- Joe Hoeffel, U.S. Representative[7]
Results edit
Casey won a landslide victory in the primary.[8]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Bob Casey, Jr. | 629,271 | 84.48% | |
| Democratic | Chuck Pennacchio | 66,364 | 8.91% | |
| Democratic | Alan Sandals | 48,113 | 6.46% | |
| Write-in | 1,114 | 0.15% | ||
| Total votes | 744,862 | 100.00% | ||
General election edit
Candidates edit
- Bob Casey Jr., State Treasurer (Democratic)
- Rick Santorum, incumbent U.S. Senator (Republican)
Declined edit
- Kate Michelman, former president of NARAL Pro-Choice America (Independent)
Michelman decided against running and tacitly endorsed Casey in March 2006[9]
Disqualified edit
- Carl Romanelli, rail industry consultant (Green)
Romanelli was removed from the ballot by a Commonwealth Court judge on September 25, 2006 following a challenge from Democrats for failing to collect enough valid signatures required of third-party candidates. He lost the appeal to the state Supreme Court challenging the required number of signatures, on October 3, 2006[10] Carl Romanelli was ordered to pay more than $80,000 in legal fees stemming from his failed effort to make the ballot.[11]
Campaign edit
Santorum's support for Arlen Specter edit
Republican strategists took Santorum's primary result in 2006 as a bad omen, in which he ran unopposed for the Republican nomination. Republican gubernatorial nominee Lynn Swann, also unopposed, garnered 22,000 more votes statewide than Santorum in the primary, meaning thousands of Republican voters abstained from endorsing Santorum for another Senate term. This may have been partly due to Santorum's support for Arlen Specter, over Congressman Pat Toomey in the 2004 Republican primary for the U.S. Senate. Even though Santorum is only slightly less conservative than Toomey, he joined virtually all of the state and national Republican establishment in supporting the moderate Specter. This led many socially and fiscally conservative Republicans to consider Santorum's support of Specter to be a betrayal of their cause.[12][13][14] However, Santorum says he supported Specter to avoid risking a Toomey loss in the general election, which would prevent President George W. Bush's judicial nominees from getting through the Senate.[15] Santorum says Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito would not have been confirmed without the help of Specter, who was chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee at the time.[15]
Santorum's controversial views edit
In the Senate, Santorum was an outspoken conservative from a state with a history of electing moderates. This led many political commentators to speculate that his low approval ratings were due to some of his more controversial statements and opinions.
Among these controversies were his views on the privatization of Social Security[16][17] and the teaching of intelligent design in public schools.[18] In addition, his involvement in the Terri Schiavo case was considered by many in his state to be out of place.[19][20]
All this left Santorum in a precarious position throughout the race. On May 31, 2006, the polling firm Rasmussen Reports declared that Santorum was the "most vulnerable incumbent" among the Senators running for re-election.[21] SurveyUSA polling taken right before the election showed that Santorum was the least popular of all 100 Senators, with a 38% approval rating and a net approval rating of -19%.[22]
Santorum's residency edit
While Santorum maintained a small residence in Penn Hills, a township near Pittsburgh, his family primarily lived in a large house in Leesburg, a suburb of Washington, D.C. in Northern Virginia. Santorum faced charges of hypocrisy from critics who noted the similarities between his living situation and that of former Representative Doug Walgren, who Santorum defeated in 1990. Back then, Santorum had claimed that Walgren was out of touch with his district; these claims were backed up with commercials showing Walgren's home in the Virginia suburbs.[23]
On NBC's Meet the Press on September 3, 2006, Santorum admitted that he only spent "maybe a month a year, something like that" at his Pennsylvania residence.[24]
Santorum also drew criticism for enrolling five of his six children in an online "cyber school" in Pennsylvania's Allegheny County (home to Pittsburgh and most of its suburbs), despite the fact that the children lived in Virginia. The Penn Hills School District was billed $73,000 in tuition for the cyber classes.[25]
Casey's momentum edit
Santorum began his contrast campaign against Casey early, charging him with relentlessly seeking higher political office[26] and failing to take definitive stands on issues.[27] While these charges kept the race competitive, in late September and through October, Casey's campaign seemed to regain the momentum it had had throughout most of the campaign, as most polls showed Casey widening his lead after a summer slump. In a Quinnipiac University Polling Institute poll, released on September 26, 2006, Casey was favored by 14 points.[28] An October 18, 2006 poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports showed Casey with a similar double-digit lead. In the Rasmussen poll, only 46% of voters surveyed had a favorable view of Santorum, while 57% of voters viewed Casey favorably.[29]
Negative advertisements edit
At least one of Santorum's television ads called into question his campaign's use of the facts regarding Casey and people who had donated money to the Casey campaign.[30] The ad, which aired in September, showed several men seated around a table, while talking amongst themselves and smoking cigars, inside a jail cell. While none of the figures, who were played by actors, were named personally, the narrator provided the job descriptions, previous donations to Casey, and ethical and/or legal troubles of each. The Santorum campaign later provided the names of the people portrayed. An editorial in Casey's hometown newspaper, The Times-Tribune, pointed out that all but one of the contributions "[was] made to Casey campaigns when he was running for other offices, at which time none of the contributors were known to be under investigation for anything."[31] In fact, two of the persons cited in the Santorum campaign ad had actually given contributions to Santorum's 2006 Senate campaign. Another of the figures portrayed had died in 2004. Political scientist Larry Sabato called the ad "over the top" and suspected that the fallout would hurt Santorum.[32]
Debates edit
- Complete video of debate, September 3, 2006
- Complete video of debate, October 12, 2006
- Complete video of debate, October 16, 2006
Predictions edit
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[33] | Lean D (flip) | November 6, 2006 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[34] | Safe D (flip) | November 6, 2006 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[35] | Likely D (flip) | November 6, 2006 |
| Real Clear Politics[36] | Likely D (flip) | November 6, 2006 |
Polling edit
| Source | Date | Bob Casey Jr. (D) | Rick Santorum (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
| February 16, 2005 | 46% | 41% | |
| SurveyUSA | March 8–9, 2005 | 49% | 42% |
| March 22, 2005 | 44% | 43% | |
| April 23, 2005 | 49% | 35% | |
| June 6, 2005 | 44% | 37% | |
| July 13, 2005 | 50% | 39% | |
| Rasmussen | July 22, 2005 | 52% | 41% |
| July 31, 2005 | 51% | 40% | |
| September 12, 2005 | 52% | 38% | |
| September 13, 2005 | 50% | 37% | |
| October 3, 2005 | 52% | 34% | |
| October 16, 2005 | 52% | 36% | |
| Keystone | November 10, 2005 | 51% | 35% |
| Rasmussen | November 10, 2005 | 54% | 34% |
| November 16, 2005 | 51% | 36% | |
| December 13, 2005 | 50% | 38% | |
| December 18, 2005 | 50% | 39% | |
| January 15, 2006 | 53% | 38% | |
| January 25, 2006 | 50% | 40% | |
| February 9, 2006 | 50% | 39% | |
| February 13, 2006 | 51% | 36% | |
| February 16, 2006 | 52% | 36% | |
| Muhlenberg College | March 2, 2006 | 49% | 37% |
| March 7, 2006 | 45% | 31% | |
| March 14, 2006 | 48% | 38% | |
| March 29, 2006 | 50% | 41% | |
| April 6, 2006 | 48% | 37% | |
| April 13, 2006 | 50% | 40% | |
| April 20, 2006 | 51% | 38% | |
| April 26, 2006 | 46% | 38% | |
| May 4, 2006 | 47% | 41% | |
| May 10, 2006 | 49% | 41% | |
| May 11, 2006 | 49% | 36% | |
| May 22, 2006 | 56% | 33% | |
| American Research Group | May 25, 2006 | 54% | 41% |
| June 15, 2006 | 49% | 40% | |
| June 19, 2006 | 52% | 37% | |
| June 21, 2006 | 52% | 34% | |
| July 20, 2006 | 50% | 40% | |
| Rasmussen August 30, 2006, at the Wayback Machine | July 26, 2006 | 50% | 39% |
| Muhlenberg College | August 5, 2006 | 45% | 39% |
| August 15, 2006 | 47% | 40% | |
| August 16, 2006 | 51% | 37% | |
| August 17, 2006 | 47% | 41% | |
| August 22, 2006 | 48% | 40% | |
| August 24, 2006 | 44% | 39% | |
| USA Today/Gallup | August 27, 2006 | 56% | 38% |
| Keystone[permanent dead link] | September 18, 2006 | 45% | 38% |
| Princeton Research Associates | September 18, 2006 | 52% | 31% |
| September 20, 2006 | 49% | 39% | |
| Temple/Philadelphia Inquirer | September 24, 2006 | 49% | 39% |
| September 26, 2006 | 54% | 40% | |
| September 28, 2006 | 50% | 40% | |
| Mason-Dixon/McClatchy-MSNBC | October 2, 2006 | 49% | 40% |
| October 5, 2006 | 50% | 37% | |
| October 5, 2006 | 48% | 36% | |
| October 8, 2006 | 46% | 41% | |
| October 16, 2006 | 55% | 43% | |
| Democracy Corps | October 17, 2006 | 54% | 37% |
| Strategic Vision (R) | October 23, 2006 | 49% | 42% |
| October 27, 2006 | 50% | 39% | |
| October 28, 2006 | 55% | 42% | |
| Temple/Philadelphia Inquirer | October 29, 2006 | 54% | 38% |
| Strategic Vision (R) | October 30, 2006 | 49% | 39% |
| November 1, 2006 | 52% | 42% | |
| Keystone[permanent dead link] | November 1, 2006 | 53% | 38% |
| November 2, 2006 | 48% | 40% | |
| November 3, 2006 | 51% | 43% | |
| Mason-Dixon/McClatchy-MSNBC | November 5, 2006 | 52% | 39% |
| November 6, 2006 | 52% | 40% |
Results edit
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Bob Casey, Jr. | 2,392,984 | 58.64% | +13.2% | |
| Republican | Rick Santorum (incumbent) | 1,684,778 | 41.28% | -11.1% | |
| Write-in | 3,281 | 0.08% | N/A | ||
| Total votes | 4,081,043 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic gain from Republican | |||||
At 9:45 PM EST on Election Night, Santorum called Casey to concede defeat.[38]
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic edit
- Armstrong (Largest city: Kittanning)
- Cambria (largest municipality: Johnstown)
- Carbon (largest municipality: Lehighton)
- Clearfield (Largest township: DuBois)
- Mercer (largest municipality: Hermitage)
- Clinton (Largest city: Lock Haven)
- Columbia (Largest city: Bloomsburg)
- Elk (Largest city: St. Marys)
- Forest (Largest city: Marienville)
- Indiana (Largest city: Indiana)
- Schuylkill (Largest city: Pottsville)
- Somerset (largest city: Somerset)
- Warren (Largest city: Warren)
- Westmoreland (Largest township: Hempfield Township)
- Bucks (largest municipality: Bensalem)
- Berks (largest borough: Reading)
- Centre (largest municipality: State College)
- Chester (largest municipality: West Chester)
- Delaware (largest city: Upper Darby)
- Dauphin (largest municipality: Harrisburg)
- Erie (largest municipality: Erie)
- Luzerne (largest municipality: Wilkes-Barre)
- Lehigh (largest municipality: Allentown)
- Monroe (largest borough: Stroudsburg)
- Montgomery (largest city: Lower Merion)
- Northampton (largest municipality: Bethlehem)
By congressional district edit
Bob Casey Jr won 14 of 19 congressional districts, including the 3rd, 6th, 15th and 18th districts, which elected Republicans to the House.[39]
| District | Casey Jr. | Santorum | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 87.7% | 12.3% | Bob Brady |
| 2nd | 89.6% | 10.4% | |
| Chaka Fattah | |||
| 3rd | 54.0% | 46.0% | Phil English |
| 4th | 54.9% | 45.1% | Melissa Hart (109th Congress) |
| Jason Altmire (110th Congress) | |||
| 5th | 49.9% | 50.1% | John E. Peterson |
| 6th | 58.5% | 41.5% | Jim Gerlach |
| 7th | 59.1% | 40.9% | Curt Weldon (109th Congress) |
| Joe Sestak (110th Congress) | |||
| 8th | 58.8% | 41.2% | Mike Fitzpatrick (109th Congress) |
| Patrick Murphy (110th Congress) | |||
| 9th | 44.9% | 55.1% | Bill Shuster |
| 10th | 49.1% | 50.9% | Don Sherwood (109th Congress) |
| Chris Carney (110th Congress) | |||
| 11th | 62.3% | 37.7% | Paul Kanjorski |
| 12th | 62.9% | 37.1% | John Murtha |
| 13th | 63.0% | 37.0% | Allyson Schwartz |
| 14th | 76.4% | 23.6% | Mike Doyle |
| 15th | 56.9% | 43.1% | Charlie Dent |
| 16th | 45.8% | 54.2% | Joe Pitts |
| 17th | 51.3% | 48.7% | Tim Holden |
| 18th | 55.2% | 44.8% | Tim Murphy |
| 19th | 45.6% | 54.4% | Todd R. Platts |
See also edit
References edit
- ^ James O'Toole. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. "Santorum in cross hairs for 2006 election." January 17, 2005. Accessed February 8, 2007.
- ^ Borys Krawczeniuk. The Times-Tribune. "Casey dominated like no one before." November 9, 2006. Accessed February 8, 2007.
- ^ Kimberly Hefling, The Associated Press. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. "Santorum's only GOP challenger bowing out of primary." March 16, 2006. Accessed February 8, 2007.
- ^ a b "Pennsylvania Elections | Summary Results". Retrieved September 27, 2023.
- ^ James O'Toole. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. "Voters Guide 2006: 2 battle Casey for Democratic U.S. Senate nomination." May 8, 2006. Accessed February 8, 2007.
- ^ Bob Casey for US Senate. "Hafer endorses Casey for U.S. Senate." October 17, 2015, at the Wayback Machine June 7, 2006. Accessed February 8, 2007.
- ^ Peter Jackson, The Associated Press. The Times-Tribune. Casey to seek Senate nominationl; Hafer and Hoeffel out." March 4, 2007. Accessed February 8, 2007.
- ^ Pennsylvania Department of State. Commonwealth of PA - Elections Information. Accessed February 8, 2007.
- ^ James O'Toole. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. "Democratic long shots seek limelight." March 21, 2006. Accessed February 8, 2007.
- ^ James O'Toole. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. "Green Party hopeful is out; win for Casey." October 4, 2006. Accessed February 8, 2007.
- ^ . Archived from the original on September 30, 2007. Retrieved July 18, 2007.
- ^ Jerry Bowyer (October 10, 2006). . New York Sun. Archived from the original on January 19, 2008. Retrieved February 23, 2011.
- ^ Stephen Moore (April 15, 2004). "Santorum's Shame". National Review.
- ^ Carney, Timothy P. (November 1, 2009). "Betrayal in Pennsylvania". AFF's Brainwash.
- ^ a b In Iowa, Specter endorsement haunts Rick Santorum
- ^ Maeve Reston. Pittsburgh-Post Gazette. "Santorum finds many minds made up on Social Security." February 22, 2005. Accessed February 8, 2007.
- ^ Americans United. "Americans United announces "Mobilization against Privatization." October 22, 2006, at the Wayback Machine April 19, 2005. Accessed February 8, 2007.
- ^ The Associated Press. The Washington Post. Santorum breaks with Christian Right law center." December 23, 2005. Accessed February 8, 2007.
- ^ Tom Barnes. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. "Santorum defends Schiavo visit." June 18, 2005. Accessed February 8, 2007.
- ^ Page Rockwell. Salon. "Rick Santorum's Schiavo woes." June 6, 2011, at the Wayback Machine April 25, 2005. Accessed February 8, 2005.
- ^ Rasmussen Reports. "Pennsylvania Senate: Casey by 23." June 2, 2006, at the Wayback Machine May 31, 2006. Accessed February 8, 2007.
- ^ SurveyUSA. "Approval Ratings for all 100 U.S. Senators as of 10/24/06." October 24, 2006. Accessed February 8, 2007.
- ^ Brian O'Neill. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Santorum: Hoisted on his own back yard." May 25, 2006. Accessed February 8, 2007.
- ^ Meet the Press with Tim Russert. "MTP Transcript for Sept. 3." September 6, 2006. Accessed February 8, 2007.
- ^ Vera Miller (September 20, 2006). "Dems Press Cyber Cost Issue". Penn Hills Progress.[permanent dead link]
- ^ RickSantorum.com. "Hey There, Hi There, Ho There." December 14, 2006, at the Wayback Machine August 26, 2006. Accessed February 12, 2007.
- ^ Bill Toland. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. "Santorum, Casey go toe-to-toe in debate." October 13, 2006. Accessed February 12, 2007.
- ^ Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Casey leads Santorum among likely voters, Quinnipiac University Pennsylvania poll finds; incumbent's momentum has stalled." December 23, 2007, at the Wayback Machine September 26, 2006. Accessed February 8, 2007.
- ^ Rasmussen Reports. "Pennsylvania Senate: Santorum trailing by 13." October 19, 2006, at the Wayback Machine October 18, 2006. Accessed February 8, 2007.
- ^ RickSantorum.com. "Corner Bar." 2006-10-18 at the Wayback Machine September 13, 2006. Accessed February 8, 2007.
- ^ . The Scranton Times-Tribune. September 15, 2006. Archived from the original on September 27, 2007.
- ^ Eichel, Larry (September 14, 2006). . The Philadelphia Inquirer. Archived from the original on January 30, 2016. Retrieved December 16, 2019.
- ^ (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original (PDF) on June 5, 2008. Retrieved September 30, 2021.
- ^ "Election Eve 2006: THE FINAL PREDICTIONS". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved June 25, 2021.
- ^ "2006 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved June 25, 2021.
- ^ "Election 2006". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved June 25, 2021.
- ^ Commonwealth of PA - Elections Information May 29, 2008, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Carrie Budoff and Emilie Lounsberry. The Philadelphia Inquirer. "Sen. Santorum loses in a landslide." November 8, 2006. Accessed February 8, 2007.
- ^ "Twitter".
External links edit
- Casey's United States Senate Website
- (archived from November 2, 2006)
- (archived from November 16, 2006)
- On the Issues: Rick Santorum
- On the Issues: Bob Casey
- Washington Post Analysis on Senate Race