A shifting baseline (also known as a sliding baseline) is a type of change to how a system is measured, usually against previous reference points (baselines), which themselves may represent significant changes from an even earlier state of the system.
The concept arose in landscape architect Ian McHarg's 1969 manifesto Design With Nature[1] in which the modern landscape is compared to that on which ancient people once lived. The concept was then considered by the fisheries scientistDaniel Pauly in his paper "Anecdotes and the shifting baseline syndrome of fisheries".[2] Pauly developed the concept in reference to fisheries management where fisheries scientists sometimes fail to identify the correct "baseline" population size (e.g. how abundant a fish species population was before human exploitation) and thus work with a shifted baseline. He describes the way that radically depleted fisheries were evaluated by experts who used the state of the fishery at the start of their careers as the baseline, rather than the fishery in its untouched state. Areas that swarmed with a particular species hundreds of years ago, may have experienced long term decline, but it is the level of decades previously that is considered the appropriate reference point for current populations. In this way large declines in ecosystems or species over long periods of time were, and are, masked. There is a loss of perception of change that occurs when each generation redefines what is "natural".
Most modern fisheries' stock assessments do not ignore historical fishing and account for it by either including the historical catch or use other techniques to reconstruct the depletion level of the population at the start of the period for which adequate data is available. Anecdotes about historical populations levels can be highly unreliable and result in severe mismanagement of the fishery.[3][4]
The concept was further refined and applied to the ecology of kelp forests by Paul Dayton and others from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography. They used a slightly different version of the term in their paper, "Sliding baselines, ghosts, and reduced expectations in kelp forest communities".[5] Both terms refer to a shift over time in the expectation of what a healthy ecosystem baseline looks like.
The Shifting Baselines Ocean Media Project grew from its three founding partners (Scripps Institution of Oceanography, The Ocean Conservancy,[6] and Surfrider Foundation) to over twenty conservation groups and science organizations. The project has produced dozens of short films, public service announcements, and Flash videos along with photography, video, and stand-up comedy contests, all intended to promote the term to a broader audience. The Shifting Baselines Blog, "the cure for planetary amnesia" is run by the Shifting Baselines Ocean Media Project on the Seed (magazine) Science Blogs.[citation needed]
The concept has been broadened to apply to underappreciated, slowly-occurring positive change by Mark Henry who labelled it Progress Attention Deficit.[7]
See alsoedit
Bias of an estimator – Difference between an estimator's expected value from a parameter's true value
^Maunder, Mark N.; Piner, Kevin R. (1 January 2015). "Contemporary fisheries stock assessment: many issues still remain". ICES Journal of Marine Science. 72 (1): 7–18. doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsu015. Retrieved 21 October 2021.
^Casey, Shannon (1 February 2007). . Scripps Institution of Oceanography. Archived from the original on 12 July 2019. Retrieved 21 October 2021.
^Henry, Mark (October 2021). In Fact: An Optimist's Guide to Ireland at 100. Gill Books. pp. 398–401. ISBN9780717190386.
Referencesedit
Dayton PK, Tegner MJ, Edwards PB and Riser KL (1998) "Sliding baselines, ghosts, and reduced expectations in kelp forest communities." Ecological Applications, 8(2):309-322.
Papworth SK, Rist J, Coad L and Milner-Gulland EJ (2008) "Evidence for shifting baseline syndrome in conservation" Conservation Letters, 2(2):93-100.
Pauly, Daniel (1995) Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 10(10):430.
Pauly, Daniel (2001) "Importance of historical dimension policy management in natural resource systems." ACP-EU Fisheries: Research Report No 8.
External linksedit
Shifting Baselines website
Shifting Baselines Blog
Shifting baseline - Conservation Science Institute
Anne Canright. "California Coast & Ocean: Shifting Baselines" (PDF). seaaroundus.org. Sea Around Us (organization). Retrieved September 12, 2016. Volume 22, No.3, 2006
Puget Sound Partnership _ A 10-minute clip of the effect of shifting baseline on the health of the Puget Sound.
Proving the ‘shifting baselines’ theory: how humans consistently misperceive nature Mongabay.com, June 24, 2009.
Daniel Pauly: The ocean's shifting baseline TED, 2010.
January 01, 1970
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A shifting baseline also known as a sliding baseline is a type of change to how a system is measured usually against previous reference points baselines which themselves may represent significant changes from an even earlier state of the system The concept arose in landscape architect Ian McHarg s 1969 manifesto Design With Nature 1 in which the modern landscape is compared to that on which ancient people once lived The concept was then considered by the fisheries scientist Daniel Pauly in his paper Anecdotes and the shifting baseline syndrome of fisheries 2 Pauly developed the concept in reference to fisheries management where fisheries scientists sometimes fail to identify the correct baseline population size e g how abundant a fish species population was before human exploitation and thus work with a shifted baseline He describes the way that radically depleted fisheries were evaluated by experts who used the state of the fishery at the start of their careers as the baseline rather than the fishery in its untouched state Areas that swarmed with a particular species hundreds of years ago may have experienced long term decline but it is the level of decades previously that is considered the appropriate reference point for current populations In this way large declines in ecosystems or species over long periods of time were and are masked There is a loss of perception of change that occurs when each generation redefines what is natural Most modern fisheries stock assessments do not ignore historical fishing and account for it by either including the historical catch or use other techniques to reconstruct the depletion level of the population at the start of the period for which adequate data is available Anecdotes about historical populations levels can be highly unreliable and result in severe mismanagement of the fishery 3 4 The concept was further refined and applied to the ecology of kelp forests by Paul Dayton and others from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography They used a slightly different version of the term in their paper Sliding baselines ghosts and reduced expectations in kelp forest communities 5 Both terms refer to a shift over time in the expectation of what a healthy ecosystem baseline looks like Contents 1 Broadened meaning 2 See also 3 Notes 4 References 5 External linksBroadened meaning editIn 2002 filmmaker and former marine biologist Randy Olson broadened the definition of shifting baselines with an op ed in the Los Angeles Times He explained the relevance of the concept to all aspects of change and the failure to notice change in the world today He and coral reef ecologist Jeremy Jackson of Scripps Institution of Oceanography co founded The Shifting Baselines Ocean Media Project in 2003 to help promote a wider understanding and use of the concept in conservation policy citation needed The Shifting Baselines Ocean Media Project grew from its three founding partners Scripps Institution of Oceanography The Ocean Conservancy 6 and Surfrider Foundation to over twenty conservation groups and science organizations The project has produced dozens of short films public service announcements and Flash videos along with photography video and stand up comedy contests all intended to promote the term to a broader audience The Shifting Baselines Blog the cure for planetary amnesia is run by the Shifting Baselines Ocean Media Project on the Seed magazine Science Blogs citation needed The concept has been broadened to apply to underappreciated slowly occurring positive change by Mark Henry who labelled it Progress Attention Deficit 7 See also editBias of an estimator Difference between an estimator s expected value from a parameter s true value Flynn effect Observer bias Cognitive bias Observer expectancy effect Cognitive bias of experimental subject Overton window Range of ideas tolerated in public discourse Normalization of deviance Sociological phenomenonNotes edit nbsp Scholia has a topic profile for Shifting baseline McHarg Ian 1969 Design With Nature The Natural History Press pp 67 70 Pauly 1995 Beddington John R Rettig R Bruce 1984 Techniques for Regulating Fishing Mortality Approaches to the regulation of fishing effort Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations ISBN 92 5 101492 2 Retrieved 21 October 2021 Maunder Mark N Piner Kevin R 1 January 2015 Contemporary fisheries stock assessment many issues still remain ICES Journal of Marine Science 72 1 7 18 doi 10 1093 icesjms fsu015 Retrieved 21 October 2021 Dayton 1998 Casey Shannon 1 February 2007 Around the Pier Shifting Baselines Scripps Institution of Oceanography Archived from the original on 12 July 2019 Retrieved 21 October 2021 Henry Mark October 2021 In Fact An Optimist s Guide to Ireland at 100 Gill Books pp 398 401 ISBN 9780717190386 References editDayton PK Tegner MJ Edwards PB and Riser KL 1998 Sliding baselines ghosts and reduced expectations in kelp forest communities Ecological Applications 8 2 309 322 Papworth SK Rist J Coad L and Milner Gulland EJ 2008 Evidence for shifting baseline syndrome in conservation Conservation Letters 2 2 93 100 Pauly Daniel 1995 Anecdotes and the shifting baseline syndrome of fisheries Trends in Ecology and Evolution 10 10 430 Pauly Daniel 2001 Importance of historical dimension policy management in natural resource systems ACP EU Fisheries Research Report No 8 External links editShifting Baselines website Shifting Baselines Blog Shifting baseline Conservation Science Institute Anne Canright California Coast amp Ocean Shifting Baselines PDF seaaroundus org Sea Around Us organization Retrieved September 12 2016 Volume 22 No 3 2006 Puget Sound Partnership A 10 minute clip of the effect of shifting baseline on the health of the Puget Sound Proving the shifting baselines theory how humans consistently misperceive nature Mongabay com June 24 2009 Daniel Pauly The ocean s shifting baseline TED 2010 Retrieved from https en wikipedia org w index php title Shifting baseline amp oldid 1172810261, wikipedia, wiki, book, books, library,
