Wikipedia
List of recessions in the United Kingdom
This is a list of recessions (and depressions) that have affected the economy of the United Kingdom and its predecessor states. In the United Kingdom and all other[clarification needed] EU member states, a recession is generally defined as two successive quarters of negative economic growth, as measured by the seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter figures for real GDP.[1][2]
| Name | Dates | Duration | Real GDP reduction | Causes | Other data |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Great Slump | c. 1430 – c. 1490 | c. 60 years | |||
| War of the Spanish Succession | 1706 | −15%[3] | War of the Spanish Succession compounded by failure of harvest | ||
| The Great Frost | 1709 | 3 months[4] | −14%[3] | Failure of harvest caused by the Great Frost | |
| Crisis of 1772 | 1772 | Great Bengal famine of 1770 | |||
| Post-Napoleonic depression | 1812–1821 | c. 9 years[5] | Post-Napoleonic Wars readjustment | ||
| 1857–58 recession | 1857–58 | c. 1 year[6][7] | c. 1%[8] | Panic of 1857 (originating in America) as the first global economic crisis, confidence eroded by Palmerston government relaxing the provisions of the Peel Banking Act of 1844 | Comparatively brief contraction of approximately 3.5%[6] nominal GDP? |
| 1867–1869 recession | 1867–1869 | c. 2 years[6][7] | c. 1%[9] | Impact on exports resulting from American recession post-American Civil War | 1.9%[6] fall in GDP |
| Long Depression | 1873–1896 | Periodic falls in real GDP over c. 20 years | Deflation but a large rise real GDP | Panic of 1873 | Previously known as the "Great Depression". Real GDP rose over this period. Agricultural deflation hit farmers and their workers, although industrial output continued to grow. |
| 1919–1926 depression | 1919–1921 | c. 3 years | The end of World War I | Deflation c. 10% in 1921, and c. 14% in 1922.[12] | |
| Great Depression | 1930–31 | c. 2 years |
| US Depression. Reducing demand for UK exports, also high interest rate defending the gold standard. | UK came off gold standard September 1931. 3–5% deflation pa. UK much less affected than US. Took 16 quarters for GDP to recover to that at start of recession[13] after a 'double dip'. |
| 1956 recession | 1956 Q2 1956 Q3 | 0.5 years (2 Qtrs)[14] |
| Uncompetitive motor industry,[15] inflationary pressures, credit squeeze caused by high bank rate, effects of the Suez crisis – oil embargo by NATO and other Arab countries.[16] | Average inflation in 1956 totalled 4.9%.[citation needed] Interest rate held at 5.5%, an increase of 1.0% on the previous year.[citation needed] |
| 1961 recession |
| 0.5 years (2 Qtrs)[14] |
| Time lag from the 'Rolling Adjustment' recession in America[17] and high bank rate. | Interest rates were hiked from 5.0% to 7.0% in July 1961, reducing to 6.5% in October 1961 and then to 6.0% from November 1961 onwards.[citation needed] |
| Mid-1970s recessions |
| 0.75 years (3 Qtrs)[14] |
| 1973 oil crisis, stagflation, the decline of traditional British industries, inefficient production, high inflation caused industrial disputes over pay. | The economy surpassed its pre-recession peak by 1976 Q4, fourteen quarters after its beginning.[12][13] There were two single-quarterly setbacks during the recovery (aside from the double-dip) in 1974 Q4 and 1976 Q2. Average inflation was 9.2% in 1973, 16.0% in 1974, 24.2% in 1975 and 16.5% in 1976.[citation needed] Interest rates fluctuated wildly during the recession with a low of 9.0% in March 1976 and a high of 15.0% in October 1976. |
| 0.5 years (2 Qtrs)[14] |
| |||
| Early 1980s recession |
| 1.25 years (5 Qtr)[14] |
| Deflationary government policies including spending cuts, pursuance of monetarism to reduce inflation, switch from a manufacturing economy to a services economy. | Company earnings decline 35%. Unemployment rises from 5.3% of the working population in August 1979 to 11.9% in 1984.[18] Took thirteen quarters for GDP to recover to its pre-recession peak at the end of 1979.[12] Annual inflation was 18.0% in 1980, 11.9% in 1981, 8.6% in 1982 and 4.6% in 1983.[citation needed] Interest rates generally declined during the recession from a peak of 17.0% at the beginning of 1980 to a low of 9.6% in October 1982.[citation needed] |
| Early 1990s recession |
| 1.25 years (5 Qtrs)[14] |
| US savings and loan crisis, high bank rate in response to rising inflation caused by the Lawson Boom and to maintain British membership of the Exchange Rate Mechanism. | Company earnings decline 25%. Peak budget deficit c. 8% of GDP. Unemployment rises from 6.9% of the working population in 1990 to 10.7% in 1993.[18] Took eleven quarters for GDP to recover to its pre-recession peak in the Spring of 1990.[12] Annual inflation was 9.5% in 1990, 5.9% in 1991, 3.7% in 1992. and 1.6% in 1993.[citation needed] Interest rates were stubbornly high initially but declined from a high of 14.8% at the start of the recession to a low of 5.9% by the end of the recession,[citation needed] though interest rates were hiked twice during Black Wednesday. |
| Great Recession |
| 1.25 years (5 Qtrs) |
| Late 2000s financial crisis, rising global commodity prices, subprime mortgage crisis infiltrating the British banking sector, significant credit crunch. | The recession lasted for five quarters and was the deepest UK recession since the Second World War.[14] Manufacturing output declined 7% by end 2008. It affected many sectors including banks and investment firms, with many well known and established businesses having to fold.[19] The unemployment rate rose to 8.3% (2.68m people) in August 2011, the highest level since 1994. There was much speculation of a 'double dip' recession during the 2010s, but this proved not to be the case. However, the 2010s saw four separate periods of quarter-on-quarter fall in growth: 2010 Q4 (−0.4); 2011 Q4 (−0.1); 2012 Q2 (−0.5); and 2012 Q4 (−0.2).[20] |
| COVID-19 recession |
| 0.5 years (2 Qtrs) |
| COVID-19 pandemic | Majority of the decrease in GDP occurred in March and April of 2020 and was followed by a sharp increase in June and July although GDP did not return to pre-pandemic levels until late 2021. |
See also
References
- ^ "Q&A: What is a recession?". BBC News. 8 July 2008.
- ^ . HM Treasury. Archived from the original on 2 November 2012. Retrieved 25 October 2012.
- ^ a b Inman, Phillip (7 May 2020). "War and the weather: what caused the huge economic slump of 1706?". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 2 July 2020.
- ^ "What happened in 1709? Why the UK economy slumped into a recession". inews.co.uk. 15 April 2020. Retrieved 15 May 2020.
- ^ "Public Spending Chart for United Kingdom 1800–1830 – Central Government Local Authorities". ukpublicspending.co.uk. Retrieved 9 August 2016.
- ^ a b c d "Public Spending Chart for United Kingdom 1800–1900 – Central Government Local Authorities". ukpublicspending.co.uk. Retrieved 9 August 2016.
- ^ a b Cain, P. J.; Hopkins, A. G. (2002). British Imperialism, 1688–2000. Longman. ISBN 9780582472860. Retrieved 9 August 2016.
- ^ "Public Spending Chart for United Kingdom 1856–1859 – Central Government Local Authorities". ukpublicspending.co.uk. Retrieved 9 August 2016.
- ^ "Public Spending Chart for United Kingdom 1865–1868 – Central Government Local Authorities". ukpublicspending.co.uk. Retrieved 9 August 2016.
- ^ a b D Smith, Sunday Times (UK) 9 November 2008
- ^ "NIESR graph of 6 UK recessions" (PDF).
- ^ a b c d "Bank of England February 2009 Quarterly inflation report" (PDF). Bank of England. Retrieved 9 August 2016.
- ^ a b "Economy tracker: GDP". BBC News. 27 January 2015. Retrieved 9 August 2016.
- ^ a b c d e f g "Quarterly National Accounts – National accounts aggregates (ABMI Gross Domestic Product: chained volume measures: Seasonally adjusted £m, constant prices)". Office for National Statistics. 20 December 2013.
- ^ "Economic policy and the motor recession". The Spectator. 12 July 1956. Retrieved 9 August 2016.
- ^ Love 1969, p. 651
- ^ "A Review Of Past Recessions | Investopedia". investopedia.com. Retrieved 9 August 2016.
- ^ a b "UK unemployment". Financial Tubes, 20 November 2008
- ^ "CBI February 2009 Economic forecast" (PDF). Confederation of British Industry. Retrieved 9 August 2016.
- ^ "UK GDP since 1955 | Business Rogers". The Guardian. 9 March 2009. Retrieved 9 August 2016.
External links
Wikinews has related news:
- United Kingdom officially enters economic recession
- Office for National Statistics website
- ONS quarterly GDP growth
- UK National Income, Expenditure and Output
- Latest Bank of England inflation report (PDF sections)
- Bank of England February 2009 Quarterly inflation report - Much data, including (on p20) previous 3 UK recessions.
- "What is the difference between a recession and a depression?" Saul Eslake November 2008
- UK economy tracker BBC News - comparison of UK recessions - updated quarterly