fbpx
Wikipedia

Fragile States Index

January 01, 1970

This article is about the Fragile States Index. For a list of countries, see List of countries by Fragile States Index.

The Fragile States Index (FSI; formerly the Failed States Index) is an annual report mainly published and supported by the United States think tank the Fund for Peace. The FSI is also published by the American magazine Foreign Policy from 2005 to 2018, then by The New Humanitarian since 2019.[1] The list aims to assess states' vulnerability to conflict or collapse, ranking all sovereign states with membership in the United Nations where there is enough data available for analysis.[2] Taiwan, Northern Cyprus, Kosovo and Western Sahara are not ranked, despite being recognized as sovereign by one or more other nations. The Palestinian Territories were ranked together with Israel until 2021. Ranking is based on the sum of scores for 12 indicators (see below). Each indicator is scored on a scale of 0 to 10, with 0 being the lowest intensity (most stable) and 10 being the highest intensity (least stable), creating a scale spanning 0−120.[2]

Fragile States according to the "Fragile States Index", 2005–2013
  Alert
  Warning
  Moderate
  Sustainable
  No Information / Dependent Territory

Methodology edit

The index's ranks are based on twelve indicators of state vulnerability, grouped by category: Cohesion, Economic, Political, Social.[3] The ranking is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are outweighing a states’ capacity to manage those pressures. By highlighting pertinent vulnerabilities which contribute to the risk of state fragility, the Index — and the social science framework and data analysis tools upon which it is built — makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.[4]

Scores are obtained via a process involving content analysis, quantitative data, and qualitative review. In the content analysis phase, millions of documents from over 100,000 English-language or translated sources (social media are excluded)[5] are scanned and filtered through the Fund for Peace's Conflict Assessment Systems Tool (CAST), which utilizes specific filters and search parameters to sort data based on Boolean phrases linked to indicators, and assigns scores based on algorithms.[6] Following CAST analysis, quantitative data from sources such as the United Nations (UN), World Health Organization (WHO), World Factbook, Transparency International, World Bank, and Freedom House are incorporated, which then leads to the final phase of qualitative reviews of each indicator for each country.[5]

Considered together in the index, the indicators are a way of assessing a state's vulnerability to collapse or conflict, ranking states on a spectrum of categories labeled sustainable, stable, warning, and alert. Within each bracket, scores are also subdivided by severity. The score breakdown[7] is as follows:

Category FSI score* Brackets (2016) 2015–2016 color 2005–2014 color
Alert 90.0–120.0 Very high: 110+

High: 100–109.9

Alert: 90–99.9

Red Red
Warning 60.0–89.9 High: 80–89.9

Warning: 70–79.9

Low: 60–69.9

Yellow-Orange Orange
Stable 30.0–59.9 Less stable: 50–59.9

Stable: 40–49.9

More stable: 30–39.9

Green Yellow
Sustainable 0.0–29.9 Sustainable: 20–29.9

Very sustainable: 0–19.9

Blue Green
Not assessed N/A — Light gray Light gray

All countries in the top three categories display features that make their societies and institutions vulnerable to failure. However, the FSI is not intended as a tool to predict when states may experience violence or collapse, as it does not measure direction or pace of change. It is possible for a state sorted into the 'stable' zone to be deteriorating at a faster rate than those in the more fragile 'warning' or 'alert' zones, and could experience violence sooner. Conversely, states in the red zone, though fragile, may exhibit positive signs of recovery or be deteriorating slowly, giving them time to adopt mitigating strategies.[7]

Indicators edit

See also: Risk factors for genocide

Twelve conflict risk indicators are used to measure the condition of a state at any given moment. The indicators provide a snapshot in time that can be measured against other snapshots in a time series to determine whether conditions are improving or worsening. Below is the list of indicators used both in the CAST framework and also in the Fragile States Index.[8]

  • Security Apparatus
  • Factionalized Elites
  • Group Grievance
  • Economic Decline and Poverty
  • Uneven Economic Development
  • Human Flight and Brain Drain
  • State Legitimacy
  • Public Services
  • Human Rights and Rule of Law
  • Demographic Pressures
  • Refugees and Internally Displaced Persons
  • External Intervention

Criticism edit

Nomenclature edit

Years of controversy over the "failed state" terminology in the index's name contributed to change in 2014, with a shift from the Failed States Index to the Fragile States Index. Critics had argued that the term established a false binary division, or false dichotomy, between states that were salvageable and those that were beyond recovery.[9][10] Krista Hendry, FFP's executive director, explained the change in part as a reaction to the debate the term failed state had generated, noting that "the name was negatively impacting our ability to get the right kind of attention for the FSI".[11]

Purpose edit

Several academics and journalists have also criticized the FSI for a lack of utility and its measurement criteria. Authors writing for The National Interest and The Washington Post have argued that the FSI sends a message that the solution to problems in the developing world is "more state-building",[12][13] when in fact state-building could be viewed as a cause of instability or fragility. Claire Leigh, writing for The Guardian in 2012, condemned the index as a "useless policy tool" which focused only on the symptoms of struggling states, ignoring causes or potential cures.[9]

Methodology edit

Critics have also identified flaws with the FSI's measurement criteria, as well as the lack of transparency surrounding its base data analysis.[12][14] For example, indicators related to refugees and human flight have allowed North Korea's score to improve as human emigration has declined;[15] while this may indicate a stronger security apparatus in the state, it should not necessarily be recognized as an improvement.[14] Additionally, analysis of the indicators has led several commentators to conclude that a combination of too many categories and a failure to distinguish between "government" and "state" (sometimes allowing political moves, such as Iran agreeing to negotiations with the West, to positively impact a score) complicates efforts to utilize findings.[12][16][17] Several have argued for greater transparency in scoring methods,[9][12] a reworking of the criteria to give the index predictive value,[12] and a consolidation of indicators into umbrella groups for easier comparison.[17]

Furthermore, criticism related to the way the ranking is put together since it was first published seventeen years ago in Foreign Policy magazine, seems to be disappearing as the ranking is focused on trends and rate-of-change. In addition, it is worth mentioning that the ranking focuses on measuring a country's performance over time against itself rather than against other countries' performance. The attention is then paid to a country’s individual indicator scores instead of only its total composite score.

Related indices edit

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has based its annual Fragile States Report, now named ‘States of Fragility,’[18] on the FSI, as well as on data from the World Bank (which publishes its own lists of fragile states[19]), since 2005.[20]

On a monthly basis, International Crisis Group (ICG), a transnational non-governmental organization (NGO), publishes CrisisWatch, a bulletin designed to inform readers about the development of state-based conflict across the globe. The reports indicate whether or not situations have improved, deteriorated, or remained unchanged from the previous month, and seek to highlight where there may be risks of new/escalated (or opportunities for resolution of) conflicts in the coming month.[21]

See also edit

External links edit

  • Fragile States Index
  • OECD States of Fragility Reports

References edit

  1. ^ "Tipping points 2019 | Lessons from fragility". The New Humanitarian. 2019-04-10. Retrieved 2019-12-23.
  2. ^ a b . the Fund for Peace. Archived from the original on 2010-11-18. Retrieved 2007-08-25.
  3. ^ . Foreign Policy magazine. Archived from the original on 2007-06-20. Retrieved 2007-06-19.
  4. ^ https://fragilestatesindex.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/fsi2021-report.pdf [bare URL PDF]
  5. ^ a b . fsi.fundforpeace.org. Archived from the original on 2017-09-04. Retrieved 2017-09-02.
  6. ^ . fsi.fundforpeace.org. Archived from the original on 2017-09-16. Retrieved 2017-09-02.
  7. ^ a b . fsi.fundforpeace.org. Archived from the original on 2018-03-15. Retrieved 2017-09-02.
  8. ^ . library.fundforpeace.org. Archived from the original on 2016-01-14. Retrieved 2016-01-20.
  9. ^ a b c Leigh, Claire (2012-07-02). "Failed States Index belongs in the policy dustbin". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 2016-01-20.
  10. ^ "The Failure of the Failed States Index | World Policy Institute". www.worldpolicy.org. Retrieved 2016-01-20.
  11. ^ "From Failed to Fragile: Renaming the Index". library.fundforpeace.org. Retrieved 2016-01-20.
  12. ^ a b c d e Beehner, Lionel; Young, Joseph (2014-07-14). "Is ranking failed or fragile states a futile business?". The Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved 2016-01-20.
  13. ^ Evers, Miles M. (15 July 2014). "The Fatally Flawed Fragile States Index". The National Interest. Retrieved 2016-01-20.
  14. ^ a b "Fragile is the New Failure". Political Violence @ a Glance. 27 June 2014. Retrieved 2016-01-20.
  15. ^ . fsi.fundforpeace.org. Archived from the original on 2016-04-14. Retrieved 2016-01-20.
  16. ^ "Why the Failed State Index is a fail". www.africareview.com. Retrieved 2016-01-20.
  17. ^ a b "2009 Failed States Index – Disorder in the Ranks". Foreign Policy. Retrieved 2016-01-20.
  18. ^ "States of Fragility 2020 - OECD". www.oecd.org. Retrieved 2020-09-21.
  19. ^ "Fragility, Conflict and Violence". www.worldbank.org. Retrieved 2016-01-20.
  20. ^ "States of Fragility Report - OECD". www.oecd.org. Retrieved 2020-09-21.
  21. ^ . www.crisisgroup.org. Archived from the original on 2016-01-12. Retrieved 2016-01-20.

January 01, 1970
fragile, states, index, this, article, about, list, countries, list, countries, formerly, failed, states, index, annual, report, mainly, published, supported, united, states, think, tank, fund, peace, also, published, american, magazine, foreign, policy, from,. This article is about the Fragile States Index For a list of countries see List of countries by Fragile States Index The Fragile States Index FSI formerly the Failed States Index is an annual report mainly published and supported by the United States think tank the Fund for Peace The FSI is also published by the American magazine Foreign Policy from 2005 to 2018 then by The New Humanitarian since 2019 1 The list aims to assess states vulnerability to conflict or collapse ranking all sovereign states with membership in the United Nations where there is enough data available for analysis 2 Taiwan Northern Cyprus Kosovo and Western Sahara are not ranked despite being recognized as sovereign by one or more other nations The Palestinian Territories were ranked together with Israel until 2021 Ranking is based on the sum of scores for 12 indicators see below Each indicator is scored on a scale of 0 to 10 with 0 being the lowest intensity most stable and 10 being the highest intensity least stable creating a scale spanning 0 120 2 Fragile States according to the Fragile States Index 2005 2013 Alert Warning Moderate Sustainable No Information Dependent Territory Contents 1 Methodology 2 Indicators 3 Criticism 3 1 Nomenclature 3 2 Purpose 3 3 Methodology 4 Related indices 5 See also 6 External links 7 ReferencesMethodology editThe index s ranks are based on twelve indicators of state vulnerability grouped by category Cohesion Economic Political Social 3 The ranking is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience but also in identifying when those pressures are outweighing a states capacity to manage those pressures By highlighting pertinent vulnerabilities which contribute to the risk of state fragility the Index and the social science framework and data analysis tools upon which it is built makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy makers and the public at large 4 Scores are obtained via a process involving content analysis quantitative data and qualitative review In the content analysis phase millions of documents from over 100 000 English language or translated sources social media are excluded 5 are scanned and filtered through the Fund for Peace s Conflict Assessment Systems Tool CAST which utilizes specific filters and search parameters to sort data based on Boolean phrases linked to indicators and assigns scores based on algorithms 6 Following CAST analysis quantitative data from sources such as the United Nations UN World Health Organization WHO World Factbook Transparency International World Bank and Freedom House are incorporated which then leads to the final phase of qualitative reviews of each indicator for each country 5 Considered together in the index the indicators are a way of assessing a state s vulnerability to collapse or conflict ranking states on a spectrum of categories labeled sustainable stable warning and alert Within each bracket scores are also subdivided by severity The score breakdown 7 is as follows Category FSI score Brackets 2016 2015 2016 color 2005 2014 color Alert 90 0 120 0 Very high 110 High 100 109 9Alert 90 99 9 Red Red Warning 60 0 89 9 High 80 89 9 Warning 70 79 9Low 60 69 9 Yellow Orange Orange Stable 30 0 59 9 Less stable 50 59 9 Stable 40 49 9More stable 30 39 9 Green Yellow Sustainable 0 0 29 9 Sustainable 20 29 9 Very sustainable 0 19 9 Blue Green Not assessed N A Light gray Light gray All countries in the top three categories display features that make their societies and institutions vulnerable to failure However the FSI is not intended as a tool to predict when states may experience violence or collapse as it does not measure direction or pace of change It is possible for a state sorted into the stable zone to be deteriorating at a faster rate than those in the more fragile warning or alert zones and could experience violence sooner Conversely states in the red zone though fragile may exhibit positive signs of recovery or be deteriorating slowly giving them time to adopt mitigating strategies 7 Indicators editSee also Risk factors for genocide Twelve conflict risk indicators are used to measure the condition of a state at any given moment The indicators provide a snapshot in time that can be measured against other snapshots in a time series to determine whether conditions are improving or worsening Below is the list of indicators used both in the CAST framework and also in the Fragile States Index 8 Security Apparatus Factionalized Elites Group Grievance Economic Decline and Poverty Uneven Economic Development Human Flight and Brain Drain State Legitimacy Public Services Human Rights and Rule of Law Demographic Pressures Refugees and Internally Displaced Persons External InterventionCriticism editNomenclature edit Years of controversy over the failed state terminology in the index s name contributed to change in 2014 with a shift from the Failed States Index to the Fragile States Index Critics had argued that the term established a false binary division or false dichotomy between states that were salvageable and those that were beyond recovery 9 10 Krista Hendry FFP s executive director explained the change in part as a reaction to the debate the term failed state had generated noting that the name was negatively impacting our ability to get the right kind of attention for the FSI 11 Purpose edit Several academics and journalists have also criticized the FSI for a lack of utility and its measurement criteria Authors writing for The National Interest and The Washington Post have argued that the FSI sends a message that the solution to problems in the developing world is more state building 12 13 when in fact state building could be viewed as a cause of instability or fragility Claire Leigh writing for The Guardian in 2012 condemned the index as a useless policy tool which focused only on the symptoms of struggling states ignoring causes or potential cures 9 Methodology edit Critics have also identified flaws with the FSI s measurement criteria as well as the lack of transparency surrounding its base data analysis 12 14 For example indicators related to refugees and human flight have allowed North Korea s score to improve as human emigration has declined 15 while this may indicate a stronger security apparatus in the state it should not necessarily be recognized as an improvement 14 Additionally analysis of the indicators has led several commentators to conclude that a combination of too many categories and a failure to distinguish between government and state sometimes allowing political moves such as Iran agreeing to negotiations with the West to positively impact a score complicates efforts to utilize findings 12 16 17 Several have argued for greater transparency in scoring methods 9 12 a reworking of the criteria to give the index predictive value 12 and a consolidation of indicators into umbrella groups for easier comparison 17 Furthermore criticism related to the way the ranking is put together since it was first published seventeen years ago in Foreign Policy magazine seems to be disappearing as the ranking is focused on trends and rate of change In addition it is worth mentioning that the ranking focuses on measuring a country s performance over time against itself rather than against other countries performance The attention is then paid to a country s individual indicator scores instead of only its total composite score Related indices editThe Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development OECD has based its annual Fragile States Report now named States of Fragility 18 on the FSI as well as on data from the World Bank which publishes its own lists of fragile states 19 since 2005 20 On a monthly basis International Crisis Group ICG a transnational non governmental organization NGO publishes CrisisWatch a bulletin designed to inform readers about the development of state based conflict across the globe The reports indicate whether or not situations have improved deteriorated or remained unchanged from the previous month and seek to highlight where there may be risks of new escalated or opportunities for resolution of conflicts in the coming month 21 See also editList of countries by Fragile States Index Rogue state Ochlocracy Crisis States Research Centre Violent non state actor Pariah state Banana republic International isolationExternal links editFragile States Index OECD States of Fragility ReportsReferences edit Tipping points 2019 Lessons from fragility The New Humanitarian 2019 04 10 Retrieved 2019 12 23 a b Failed States FAQ the Fund for Peace Archived from the original on 2010 11 18 Retrieved 2007 08 25 Failed States list 2007 Foreign Policy magazine Archived from the original on 2007 06 20 Retrieved 2007 06 19 https fragilestatesindex org wp content uploads 2021 05 fsi2021 report pdf bare URL PDF a b What Methodology Was Used for the Ratings The Fund for Peace fsi fundforpeace org Archived from the original on 2017 09 04 Retrieved 2017 09 02 Methodology The Fund for Peace fsi fundforpeace org Archived from the original on 2017 09 16 Retrieved 2017 09 02 a b What do the Colors and Categories in the Index and on the Map Signify The Fund for Peace fsi fundforpeace org Archived from the original on 2018 03 15 Retrieved 2017 09 02 CAST Conflict Assessment Framework Manual The Fund for Peace library fundforpeace org Archived from the original on 2016 01 14 Retrieved 2016 01 20 a b c Leigh Claire 2012 07 02 Failed States Index belongs in the policy dustbin The Guardian ISSN 0261 3077 Retrieved 2016 01 20 The Failure of the Failed States Index World Policy Institute www worldpolicy org Retrieved 2016 01 20 From Failed to Fragile Renaming the Index library fundforpeace org Retrieved 2016 01 20 a b c d e Beehner Lionel Young Joseph 2014 07 14 Is ranking failed or fragile states a futile business The Washington Post ISSN 0190 8286 Retrieved 2016 01 20 Evers Miles M 15 July 2014 The Fatally Flawed Fragile States Index The National Interest Retrieved 2016 01 20 a b Fragile is the New Failure Political Violence a Glance 27 June 2014 Retrieved 2016 01 20 North Korea The Fund for Peace fsi fundforpeace org Archived from the original on 2016 04 14 Retrieved 2016 01 20 Why the Failed State Index is a fail www africareview com Retrieved 2016 01 20 a b 2009 Failed States Index Disorder in the Ranks Foreign Policy Retrieved 2016 01 20 States of Fragility 2020 OECD www oecd org Retrieved 2020 09 21 Fragility Conflict and Violence www worldbank org Retrieved 2016 01 20 States of Fragility Report OECD www oecd org Retrieved 2020 09 21 CrisisWatch International Crisis Group www crisisgroup org Archived from the original on 2016 01 12 Retrieved 2016 01 20 Retrieved from https en wikipedia org w index php title Fragile States Index amp oldid 1221088445, wikipedia, wiki, book, books, library,

article

, read, download, free, free download, mp3, video, mp4, 3gp, jpg, jpeg, gif, png, picture, music, song, movie, book, game, games.