China's final warning

"China's final warning" (Russian: последнее китайское предупреждение) is a Russian proverb that originated as a Soviet political joke in the Soviet Union during the 1950s, referring to a warning that carries no real consequences.^[1]

View from Kinmen of the Taiwan Strait, the source of the proverb

Origin and Cold War usage

Relations between the People's Republic of China and the United States during the 1950s and 1960s were strained because of the Taiwan Strait issues. American military fighter jets regularly patrolled and performed fighter maneuvers in the Taiwan Strait, which led to formal protests being regularly lodged by the Chinese Communist Party in the form of a "final warning". However, no real consequences were given for ignoring the "final warnings".^[2]

The People's Republic of China released its first "final warning" to the United States for their reconnaissance flights on 7 September 1958, during the Second Taiwan Strait Crisis. At the time, the United States considered the Republic of China the sole legitimate representative of China and conducted reconnaissance flights in waters controlled by the People's Republic of China. China would then record such incidents, and issue a "final warning" through diplomatic channels for each incident that occurred. More than 900 Chinese "final warnings" had been issued by the end of 1964.^{[citation needed]}

Modern usage

Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the proverb has retained its use as a common metaphorical catchphrase within the post-Soviet countries, especially in Estonia.^[3][4]

The term was popularized in English-language social media during the lead-up to Nancy Pelosi's 2022 visit to Taiwan to refer to China's threats which are said to be superficially strong, but actually weak.^[5][6]

See also

• The Boy Who Cried Wolf – Aesop's fable
• Crossing the Rubicon – Idiom to mean a point of no return
• Hurting the feelings of the Chinese people – Chinese political catchphrase
• Paper tiger – Chinese phrase for an ineffectual threat
• Point of no return – Point beyond which turning back is no longer possible
• Red line (phrase) – Figurative phrase meaning a limit
• Red lines in the Russo-Ukrainian War – Veiled threats of engagement
• Ultimatum – Final demand backed up by a threat

References

1. "Когда было последнее китайское предупреждение?". ВокругСвета.ру.
2. "Малая воздушная война в Китае". www.airwar.ru (in Russian). Retrieved 2 August 2022.
3. "Toomas Alatalu: Põhja-Korea ja USA ootamatult tuliseks kujunenud olukorras on suureks õli tulle valajaks silmatorkavalt sõjajanune ajakirjandus". Eesti Päevaleht. Retrieved 2022-01-22.
4. OKIA. "Kas sõjahirm või sõjaootus?". Sirp (in Estonian). Retrieved 2022-01-22.
5. Birtles, Bill (2022-08-03). "Analysis: Xi Jinping failed to derail Nancy Pelosi's trip to Taiwan, but he's still beating the drums of a 'defensive' war". ABC News. from the original on 2022-09-30. Retrieved 2022-10-05.
6. Birtles, Bill (2022-08-03). "'Xi can't appear weak': Nancy Pelosi has embarrassed China's leader in what could be his most important year". ABC News. Retrieved 2023-01-20.