Blue Chip Economic Indicators is a monthly survey and associated publication by Wolters Kluwer collecting macroeconomic forecasts related to the economy of the United States.[1] The survey polls America's top business economists, collecting their forecasts of U.S. economic growth, inflation, interest rates, and a host of other critical indicators of future business activity.[1] It has a sister publication called Blue Chip Financial Forecasts, which surveys forecasts of the future direction and level of U.S. interest rates.[1]
Blue Chip Economic Indicators and Blue Chip Financial Forecasts started in 1976.[1]
Variables reportededit
The Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey provides forecasts for this year and next from each panel member, plus and average, or consensus, of their forecasts for each of these variables associated with the economy of the United States:[1]
Real GDP
GDP price index
Nominal GDP
Consumer price index
Industrial production
Real disposable personal income
Real personal consumption expenditures
Real non-residential fixed investment
Pre-tax corporate profits
3-month Treasury bill rate
10-year Treasury note yield
Unemployment rate
Total housing starts
Auto and light truck sales
Real Net exports
Receptionedit
Academic receptionedit
Many papers in the academic literature on the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts have used the Blue Chip Economic Indicators for a data set of forecasts whose accuracy is to be evaluated.[2][3] A paper by Laster, Bennett, and Geoum (1999) made a theoretical argument for how rational forecasters with identical information and incentives may still come up with divergent forecasts to maximize their probability of winning, and used the Blue chip Economic Indicators data to provide evidence supportive of their model. The paper noted: "The publisher of Blue Chip Economic Indicators, a monthly newsletter compiling dozens of professional economic forecasts, holds an annual dinner at which the most accurate forecaster for the previous year is honored. The winning forecaster is also identified in later issues of the newsletter."[4]
The results of the Blue Chip Economic Indicators have also been used to inform discussion in the financial press and blogs, including Forbes and Barron's.[6][7][8]
In March 2009, PolitiFact reported that a controversial statement made by Christina Romer based on Blue Chip Economic Indicators data had correctly cited the Blue Chip Economic Indicators.[9]
^ abcde"Blue Chip Economic and Financial Indicators". Wolters Kluwer. Retrieved September 21, 2022.
^Swidler, Steve; Ketcher, David (February 1990). "Economic Forecasts, Rationality, and the Processing of New Information over Time". Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking. 22 (1): 65–76. doi:10.2307/1992128. JSTOR 1992128.
^Laster, David; Bennett, Paul; Geoum, In Sun (1999). "Rational Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts". The Quarterly Journal of Economics. 114 (1): 293–318. CiteSeerX10.1.1.201.35. doi:10.1162/003355399555918.
^Conerly, Bill (September 2, 2013). "Economic Assumptions For Your 2014 Business Plan". Forbes. Retrieved April 21, 2014.
^Epstein, Gene (June 23, 2012). "The Chips Are a Mixed Bag: Blue Chip Economic Indicators puts its consensus odds of a recession over the next year at nearly one in four -- but it may be overemphasizing a soft patch". Barron's. Retrieved April 13, 2014.
^Barbera, Robert; Wright, Jonathan (March 2, 2014). . Center for Financial Economics, Johns Hopkins University. Archived from the original on April 15, 2014. Retrieved April 13, 2014.
^Romer, Christina (March 15, 2009). "Last week the Blue Chip Economic Indicators came out that surveys lots of private forecasters. Almost all of them are predicting a turnaround in the third quarter and positive growth in the fourth quarter". PolitiFact. Retrieved April 13, 2014.
External linksedit
Official website
January 01, 1970
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This article is about a specific survey and associated publication by Aspen Publishers For the concept of a stock in a corporation known for quality reliability and dependable profitability see blue chip stock market For the state wise forecast for the Western United States see Western Blue Chip Economic Forecast Blue Chip Economic Indicators is a monthly survey and associated publication by Wolters Kluwer collecting macroeconomic forecasts related to the economy of the United States 1 The survey polls America s top business economists collecting their forecasts of U S economic growth inflation interest rates and a host of other critical indicators of future business activity 1 It has a sister publication called Blue Chip Financial Forecasts which surveys forecasts of the future direction and level of U S interest rates 1 Contents 1 History 2 Variables reported 3 Reception 3 1 Academic reception 3 2 Reception in the financial press and blogs 4 See also 5 References 6 External linksHistory editBlue Chip Economic Indicators and Blue Chip Financial Forecasts started in 1976 1 Variables reported editThe Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey provides forecasts for this year and next from each panel member plus and average or consensus of their forecasts for each of these variables associated with the economy of the United States 1 Real GDP GDP price index Nominal GDP Consumer price index Industrial production Real disposable personal income Real personal consumption expenditures Real non residential fixed investment Pre tax corporate profits 3 month Treasury bill rate 10 year Treasury note yield Unemployment rate Total housing starts Auto and light truck sales Real Net exportsReception editAcademic reception edit Many papers in the academic literature on the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts have used the Blue Chip Economic Indicators for a data set of forecasts whose accuracy is to be evaluated 2 3 A paper by Laster Bennett and Geoum 1999 made a theoretical argument for how rational forecasters with identical information and incentives may still come up with divergent forecasts to maximize their probability of winning and used the Blue chip Economic Indicators data to provide evidence supportive of their model The paper noted The publisher of Blue Chip Economic Indicators a monthly newsletter compiling dozens of professional economic forecasts holds an annual dinner at which the most accurate forecaster for the previous year is honored The winning forecaster is also identified in later issues of the newsletter 4 The Congressional Budget Office has also cited Blue Chip Economic Indicators data in some of its publications 5 Reception in the financial press and blogs edit The results of the Blue Chip Economic Indicators have also been used to inform discussion in the financial press and blogs including Forbes and Barron s 6 7 8 In March 2009 PolitiFact reported that a controversial statement made by Christina Romer based on Blue Chip Economic Indicators data had correctly cited the Blue Chip Economic Indicators 9 See also editEconomic forecasting Greenbook Western Blue Chip Economic Forecast Survey of Professional Forecasters ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters Consensus Economics Surveys of International Economic Forecasts Livingston SurveyReferences edit a b c d e Blue Chip Economic and Financial Indicators Wolters Kluwer Retrieved September 21 2022 Swidler Steve Ketcher David February 1990 Economic Forecasts Rationality and the Processing of New Information over Time Journal of Money Credit and Banking 22 1 65 76 doi 10 2307 1992128 JSTOR 1992128 Batchelor Roy Dua Pami November 1991 Blue Chip Rationality Tests Journal of Money Credit and Banking 23 4 692 705 doi 10 2307 1992704 JSTOR 1992704 Laster David Bennett Paul Geoum In Sun 1999 Rational Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts The Quarterly Journal of Economics 114 1 293 318 CiteSeerX 10 1 1 201 35 doi 10 1162 003355399555918 Elmendorf Douglas William March 27 2013 How Different Future Interest Rates Would Affect Budget Deficits Congressional Budget Office Retrieved April 13 2014 Conerly Bill September 2 2013 Economic Assumptions For Your 2014 Business Plan Forbes Retrieved April 21 2014 Epstein Gene June 23 2012 The Chips Are a Mixed Bag Blue Chip Economic Indicators puts its consensus odds of a recession over the next year at nearly one in four but it may be overemphasizing a soft patch Barron s Retrieved April 13 2014 Barbera Robert Wright Jonathan March 2 2014 A Consistent Set of Interest Rate and Real Growth Assumptions Suggests Stable Debt to GDP Ratios in the Out years Center for Financial Economics Johns Hopkins University Archived from the original on April 15 2014 Retrieved April 13 2014 Romer Christina March 15 2009 Last week the Blue Chip Economic Indicators came out that surveys lots of private forecasters Almost all of them are predicting a turnaround in the third quarter and positive growth in the fourth quarter PolitiFact Retrieved April 13 2014 External links editOfficial website Retrieved from https en wikipedia org w index php title Blue Chip Economic Indicators amp oldid 1111444265, wikipedia, wiki, book, books, library,
