2024 United States Senate election in Montana

The 2024 United States Senate election in Montana will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Montana. Incumbent three-term Democratic Senator Jon Tester was re-elected with 50.3% of the vote in 2018. Tester is one of three Democratic senators up for re-election in states that Donald Trump won in both 2016 and 2020, alongside Senators Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Sherrod Brown of Ohio. Tester's re-election is considered essential for Democrats' chances to retain the Senate majority in 2024.^[1]

2024 United States Senate election in Montana

← 2018 November 5, 2024 2030 →

Party Democratic Republican

Incumbent U.S. senator Jon Tester Democratic

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

• Jon Tester, incumbent U.S. Senator (2007–present)^[2]

Endorsements

Jon Tester

U.S. Senators

• Martin Heinrich, U.S. Senator from New Mexico (2013–present)^[3]

Republican primary

Candidates

Publicly expressed interest

• Austin Knudsen, Attorney General of Montana (2021–present) and 53rd Speaker of the Montana House of Representatives (2015–2019)^[4]
• Matt Rosendale, U.S. Representative from Montana's 2nd congressional district (2023–present) and at-large district (2021–2023); nominee for U.S. Senate in 2018^[5][6]
• Ryan Zinke, U.S. Representative from Montana's 1st congressional district (2023–present) and at-large district (2015–2017); former U.S. Secretary of the Interior (2017–2019)^[5]

Potential

• Greg Gianforte, Governor of Montana (2021–present) and former U.S. Representative from Montana's at-large congressional district (2017–2021)^[5]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report^[7]	Lean D	January 24, 2023
Inside Elections^[8]	Battleground	January 6, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[9]	Tossup	January 24, 2023

Polling

Hypothetical polling

Jon Tester vs. Greg Gianforte

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Jon Tester (D)	Greg Gianforte (R)	Undecided
Political Company (R)	January 30 – February 1, 2023	534 (LV)	± 4%	45%	45%	10%

Jon Tester vs. Matt Rosendale

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Jon Tester (D)	Matt Rosendale (R)	Undecided
Political Company (R)	January 30 – February 1, 2023	534 (LV)	± 4%	45%	40%	15%

Jon Tester vs. Ryan Zinke

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Jon Tester (D)	Ryan Zinke (R)	Undecided
Political Company (R)	January 30 – February 1, 2023	534 (LV)	± 4%	46%	40%	14%

Notes

1. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear

References

1. Everett, Burgess. "GOP eyes 2024 payback for Manchin's Dems-only deal". Politico. Retrieved August 29, 2022.
2. Concepcion, Summer (February 22, 2023). "Sen. Jon Tester to seek re-election in 2024". NBC News. Retrieved February 22, 2023.
3. "I wish everyone in public office could be more like my friend @JonTester. He's fought tirelessly for our veterans, rural communities, and has never stopped working for the people. Let's make sure we've got his back". Twitter. February 22, 2023. Retrieved March 2, 2023.
4. Holt, Matt (February 2, 2023). "Montana machinations: How Republicans are preparing to take on Jon Tester". National Journal. Retrieved February 3, 2023.
5. Brown, Matthew (November 12, 2022). "Surging Montana GOP eyes big prize: US Senate seat in 2024". The Intelligencer. Retrieved November 12, 2022.
6. Slacik, Sophia (November 23, 2022). "The 2024 Senate battle has begun and the electoral map does not favor Democrats". Rosendale has communicated interest in a rematch with Tester
7. "2024 Senate Race Ratings". Amy Walter. January 24, 2023. Retrieved January 24, 2023.
8. "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
9. "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.

External links

Official campaign websites

• Jon Tester (D) for Senate