2015 United Kingdom general election in Wales

Main article: 2015 United Kingdom general election

The 2015 United Kingdom general election in Wales was held on 7 May 2015 and all 40 seats in Wales were contested.^[1][2] The election for each seat was conducted on the basis of first-past-the-post.

2015 United Kingdom general election in Wales

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All 40 Welsh seats to the House of Commons
First party Second party   Leader Ed Miliband David Cameron Party Labour Conservative Leader since 25 September 2010 6 December 2005 Last election 26 seats, 36.2% 8 seats, 26.1% Seats won 25 11 Seat change 1 3 Popular vote 552,473 408,213 Percentage 36.9% 27.2% Swing 0.6% 1.1%   Third party Fourth party   Leader Leanne Wood Nick Clegg Party Plaid Cymru Liberal Democrats Leader since 16 March 2012 18 December 2007 Last election 3 seats, 11.3% 3 seats, 20.1% Seats won 3 1 Seat change 2 Popular vote 181,704 97,783 Percentage 12.1% 6.5% Swing 0.8% 13.6%
Results of the 2015 election in Wales

Despite the Labour party winning the most votes in Wales, the Conservatives won across the UK.^[3]

Results overview

A full list of the results in Wales can be found in the House of Commons Library General Elections Online.^[2] The following is an overall table of results for Wales by the BBC.^[4]

Party		Seats					Votes
		Total	Gains	Losses	Net +/-	% seats	Total	%	Change
	Labour	25	1	2	1	62.5	552,473	36.9	0.6
	Conservative	11	3	0	3	27.5	407,813	27.2	1.1
	UKIP	0	0	0		—	204,330	13.6	11.2
	Plaid Cymru	3	0	0		7.5	181,704	12.1	0.8
	Liberal Democrats	1	0	2	2	2.5	97,783	6.5	13.6
	Green	0	0	0		—	38,344	2.6	2.1
	Socialist Labour	0	0	0		—	3,481	0.2	0.2
	TUSC	0	0	0		—	1,780	0.1	0.1
	Others	0	0	0		—	10,355	0.7	0.5
Total		40					1,498,063

Popular vote Labour   36.87% Conservative   27.22% UKIP   13.64% Plaid Cymru   12.13% Liberal Democrats   6.53% Greens   2.56% Other   1.05%

Parliament seats Labour   62.50% Conservative   27.50% Plaid Cymru   7.50% Liberal Democrats   2.50%

Turnout statistics

Election turnout statistics		source and comment
Estimated total population of Wales	3.1M	^[5] data for 30 June 2015
Total eligible electorate	2.281M	^1^[6]
electorate as proportion of total population	74%
Total valid votes	1.498M	^1^[7]
Mean turnout based on total valid votes	65.67%
Mean as average of constituency results	65.64%
Mean as above but based on ballot box turnout	65.77%	^1 ballot box turnout includes rejected ballots^[7]
Median valid vote turnout	65.0%	turnout midway between 20th and 21st constituency
UK median valid vote turnout	66.7%	^[8] for comparison with above

¹ valid vote, count of rejected ballots and total electorate come from the source(s) given in 'Table of results by constituency' below.

Results by constituency

Table of results by constituency

Constituency ^1	Total electorate ^2	Winning party	Majority	Source(s)
Aberavon	49,821	Welsh Labour hold	10,445	^[9]
Aberconwy	45,525	Welsh Conservatives hold	3,999	^[10]
Alyn and Deeside	62,016	Welsh Labour hold	3,343	^[11]
Arfon	40,492	Plaid Cymru hold	3,668	^[12]^[13]
Blaenau Gwent	51,335	Welsh Labour hold	12,703	^[14]
Brecon and Radnorshire	54,441	Welsh Conservatives gain	5,102	^[15]^[16]
Bridgend	59,998	Welsh Labour hold	1,927	^[17]
Caerphilly	63,603	Welsh Labour hold	10,073	^[18]
Cardiff Central	57,456	Welsh Labour gain	4,981	^[19]
Cardiff North	67,196	Welsh Conservatives hold	2,137	^[20]
Cardiff South and Penarth	76,006	Labour Co-operative Party hold	7,453	^[21]
Cardiff West	66,762	Welsh Labour hold	6,789	^[22]
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	55,605	Plaid Cymru hold	5,599	^[23]^[24]
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire	57,777^[25]	Welsh Conservatives hold	6,054	^[26]
Ceredigion	54,243	Welsh Liberal Democrats hold	3,067	^[27]
Clwyd South	54,996	Welsh Labour hold	2,402	^[28]
Clwyd West	58,644	Welsh Conservatives hold	6,730	^[29]
Cynon Valley	51,422	Welsh Labour hold	9,406	^[30]
Delyn	53,639	Welsh Labour hold	2,930	^[31]
Dwyfor Meirionnydd	44,394	Plaid Cymru hold	5,261	^[12]^[32]
Gower	61,820	Welsh Conservatives gain	27	^[33]
Islwyn	55,697	Labour Co-operative Party hold	10,404	^[34]
Llanelli	59,796	Welsh Labour hold	7,095	^[35]^[36]
Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney	61,716	Welsh Labour hold	11,513	^[37]
Monmouth	62,248	Welsh Conservatives hold	10,982	^[38]
Montgomeryshire	48,690	Welsh Conservatives hold	5,325	^[15]^[39]
Neath	56,097	Welsh Labour hold	9,546	^[9]
Newport East	56,015	Welsh Labour hold	4,705	^[40]^[41]
Newport West	62,137	Welsh Labour hold	3,510	^[40]^[42]
Ogmore	55,320^[43]	Welsh Labour hold	13,043	^[17]
Pontypridd	58,940	Welsh Labour hold	8,985	^[30]
Preseli Pembrokeshire	57,371^[25]	Welsh Conservatives hold	4,969	^[26]
Rhondda	51,811	Welsh Labour hold	7,455	^[30]
Swansea East	58,011	Welsh Labour hold	12,028	^[33]
Swansea West	58,776	Welsh Labour ^3 hold	7,036	^[33]
Torfaen	61,896	Welsh Labour hold	8,169	^[44]
Vale of Clwyd	56,505	Welsh Conservatives gain	237	^[45]
Vale of Glamorgan	72,187	Welsh Conservatives hold	6,880	^[46]
Wrexham	50,992	Welsh Labour hold	1,831	^[47]
Ynys Môn	49,939	Welsh Labour hold	229	^[48]^[49]

¹ The information on the winning party and the majority come from the source(s) indicated.
² The total electorate comes from^[2] unless another reference is given.
³ The MP is a Labour Co-op Party member^[50] but he was nominated as 'Welsh Labour'.^[51]

Target seats

Labour

• Gower, Conservative, 0.1%
• Vale of Clwyd, Conservative, 0.7%
• Cardiff North, Conservative, 4.2%

Conservative

• Bridgend, Labour, 4.9%
• Wrexham, Labour, 5.6%
• Clwyd South, Labour, 6.9%
• Delyn, Labour, 7.8%
• Alyn and Deeside, Labour, 8.1%
• Newport West, Labour, 8.7%

Plaid Cymru

• Ynys Môn, Labour, 0.7%
• Ceredigion, Liberal Democrats, 8.2%

Opinion polling

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Plaid	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
16 April 2015	Five-way Opposition Leaders' Debate held on BBC One
13–15 April 2015	YouGov/ITV/Cardiff University	1,143	12%	40%	26%	6%	13%	4%	<0.5%	14%
2 April 2015	Seven-way Leaders' Debate on ITV
26–31 Mar 2015	YouGov/The Sun	1,035	9%	40%	27%	6%	13%	5%	1%	13%
30 March 2015	Dissolution of Parliament and the official start of the election campaign
24–27 Mar 2015	YouGov/ITV Wales	1,189	11%	40%	25%	5%	14%	5%	1%	15%
26 March 2015	First TV election interview by Jeremy Paxman with David Cameron and Ed Miliband on Sky and Channel 4
5–9 Mar 2015	YouGov/ITV Wales	1,279	10%	39%	25%	5%	14%	6%	1%	14%
19–21 Jan 2015	YouGov/ITV Wales	1,036	10%	37%	23%	6%	16%	8%	1%	14%
8–13 Jan 2015	ICM/BBC Wales	1,004	12%	38%	21%	7%	13%	6%	2%	17%
2–3 Dec 2014	YouGov/ITV Wales	1,131	11%	36%	23%	5%	18%	5%	2%	13%
19–22 Sep 2014		1,006	13%	39%	23%	5%	16%	2%	1%	16%
8–11 Sep 2014	YouGov/ITV Wales	1,025	11%	38%	23%	6%	17%	5%	1%	15%
26 Jun–1 Jul 2014	YouGov/ITV Wales	1,035	11%	41%	25%	5%	14%	3%	2%	16%
22 May 2014	2014 European Parliament elections
12–14 May 2014	YouGov/ITV Wales	1,092	11%	43%	22%	7%	13%	3%	2%	21%
11–22 Apr 2014	YouGov/University of Cardiff	1,027	11%	45%	24%	7%	10%	1%	2%	21%
21–24 Feb 2014		1,000	15%	45%	24%	6%	8%	2%	1%	21%
10–12 Feb 2014	YouGov/ITV Wales	1,250	11%	47%	22%	7%	9%	2%	2%	25%
2–4 Dec 2013	YouGov/ITV Wales	1,001	12%	46%	21%	8%	10%	2%	2%	25%
18–22 Jul 2013	YouGov	1,012	9%	48%	23%	8%	8%	2%	2%	25%
18–20 Feb 2013	YouGov/ITV Wales	1,007	10%	51%	22%	9%	7%	1%	1%	29%
2–4 Jul 2012	YouGov/ITV Wales	1,000	10%	54%	23%	4%	9%			21%
3 May 2012	2012 Welsh local elections
12–16 Apr 2012	YouGov	1,039	12%	50%	23%	7%	9%			27%
30 Jan–1 Feb 2012	YouGov/ITV Wales	1,008	11%	50%	25%	6%	5%	3%	2%	25%
5 May 2011	2011 Welsh Assembly election
2–4 May 2011	YouGov/ITV Wales	1,010	10%	50%	24%	8%	4%	2%	2%	25%
6 May 2010	General election results	1,466,690	11.3%	36.2%	26.1%	20.1%	2.4%	0.4%	3.4%	10%

See also

• 2015 United Kingdom general election in England
• 2015 United Kingdom general election in Northern Ireland
• 2015 United Kingdom general election in Scotland

References

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