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2010 Minnesota gubernatorial election

The 2010 Minnesota gubernatorial election was held on Tuesday, November 2, 2010 to elect the 40th Governor of the U.S. state of Minnesota for a four-year term to begin in January 2011. The general election was contested by the major party candidates State Representative Tom Emmer (RDelano), former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton (DFL), and Independence Party candidate Tom Horner. After a very close race, Dayton was elected governor.[1] Emmer would be elected to the United States House of Representatives four years later.[2]

2010 Minnesota gubernatorial election

← 2006 November 2, 2010 2014 →
 
Nominee Mark Dayton Tom Emmer Tom Horner
Party Democratic (DFL) Republican Independence
Running mate Yvonne Prettner Solon Annette Meeks Jim Mulder
Popular vote 919,232 910,462 251,487
Percentage 43.6% 43.2% 11.9%

Dayton:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Emmer:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Horner:      30–40%      40–50%      60–70%      >90%
Tie:      30–40%      40–50%      50%      No votes

Governor before election

Tim Pawlenty
Republican

Elected Governor

Mark Dayton
Democratic (DFL)

This was the first time the Democrats won the governorship since Rudy Perpich won re-election in 1986. With a margin of 0.4%, this election was the closest race of the 2010 gubernatorial election cycle.

Republican primary edit

After incumbent Governor Tim Pawlenty announced in June 2009 that he would not seek a third term,[3] the field was open for Republicans to seek their party's endorsement. At the Minnesota GOP's off-year state convention in October 2009, former Representative Marty Seifert took first place in a straw poll with 37% of the vote. Representative Tom Emmer took second place with 23%, Patricia Anderson had 14%, and the rest of the participating candidates received less than 10% each.[4][5]

Seifert had another victory in the February 2 precinct caucuses, winning a statewide straw poll of caucus attendees with 50% of the vote, followed by Emmer with 39%. None of the other candidates got beyond single digits.[6] Delegates to the state convention, however, were more closely divided between Emmer and Seifert than the initial straw poll indicated. Both camps claimed a delegate lead throughout the process leading up to the state convention, but the outcome was uncertain and was ultimately decided on the convention floor.[7]

On April 30, Emmer won the Republican endorsement at the party's state convention in Minneapolis. After Emmer won 56% of the vote on the second ballot, Seifert withdrew from the race and threw his support to Emmer. Emmer then chose Metropolitan Council member Annette Meeks as his running mate for lieutenant governor.[8]

Emmer won the August 10 primary, earning a spot on the November ballot.[9]

Candidates edit

Declared edit

Withdrew edit

Declined edit

Results edit

Republican primary results[32]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Tom Emmer 107,558 82.5
Republican Bob Carney Jr. 9,856 7.6
Republican Leslie Davis 8,598 6.6
Republican Ole Savior 4,396 3.4
Total votes 130,408 100

Democratic–Farmer–Labor primary edit

The list of candidates seeking the DFL's nomination was long going into the February 2 caucuses, with over 11 candidates having submitted their names for the candidate preference ballot. Former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton notably declined to be included on the ballot. Minneapolis Mayor R. T. Rybak won the straw poll with 21.8% of the vote, with State House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher receiving 20.1%, and "uncommitted" receiving 14.7%. The other each candidates received single-digit support.[33][34]

Former State Senator Steve Kelley dropped out of the race after a disappointing result in the straw poll. State Senator Tom Bakk also dropped out on March 20 after announcing at the St. Louis County Convention that he believed his chances of winning were slim.

On April 24, the DFL State Convention was held in Duluth. State Senator John Marty withdrew from the race after seeing lower than expected support on the first ballot, and State Representative Tom Rukavina withdrew after the fourth ballot, endorsing Kelliher. State Representative Paul Thissen withdrew after the fifth ballot, and before the results of the sixth ballot were announced, Rybak withdrew as well, endorsing Kelliher.[35] Kelliher was subsequently endorsed by the convention. Ramsey County Attorney Susan Gaertner, who had not sought the DFL endorsement but was planning to run in the primary, dropped out two days later. That left Kelliher facing Dayton and former State House Minority Leader Matt Entenza in the August primary.

Shortly after the end of the 2010 legislative term, all three major DFL candidates had announced their choices for lieutenant governor. On May 21, Kelliher announced that John Gunyou would be her running mate. Gunyou is Minnetonka City Manager and was state finance commissioner in Republican Governor Arne Carlson's administration.[36] On May 24, Dayton announced Yvonne Prettner Solon as his running mate. Solon is a psychologist and three-term state senator.[37] On May 27, Entenza announced Robyne Robinson as his running mate. Robinson is a small-business owner and former TV anchor.[38]

Dayton narrowly won the August 10 primary, earning the right to serve as his party's nominee.[39] He was formally endorsed by the DFL on August 21.[40]

Candidates edit

 
Candidate Mark Dayton speaking at a debate, 2009

Declared edit

Withdrew edit

Declined edit

Polling edit

Poll source Dates administered Mark Dayton Matt Entenza Margaret Anderson Kelliher Undecided Sampling error
Survey USA August 2–4, 2010 43% 22% 27% 8% 4.5%
Minnesota Poll[permanent dead link] July 26–29, 2010 40% 17% 30% 13% 7.3%
Survey USA June 14–16, 2010 39% 22% 26% 11% 4.5%
May 13–16, 2010 38% 6% 28% 28% 8.75%

Results edit

 
Results by county:
Dayton
  •   30-40%
  •   40-50%
  •   50-60%
  •   60-70%
Kelliher
  •   30–40%
  •   40-50%
Entenza
  •   30-40%
  •   50-60%

At 11:50 p.m. on primary night, Dayton took the lead from Kelliher, who had held an ever-shrinking lead since the polls closed.

Democratic–Farmer–Labor primary results[32]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic (DFL) Mark Dayton 182,738 41.3
Democratic (DFL) Margaret Anderson Kelliher 175,767 39.8
Democratic (DFL) Matt Entenza 80,509 18.2
Democratic (DFL) Peter Idusogie 3,123 0.7
Total votes 442,137 100

Independence primary edit

On Sunday, May 9, 2010, Tom Horner won the endorsement of the Independence Party for governor. His main opponent, Rob Hahn, said he would contest the primary.[53]

Horner won the August 10 primary, defeating Hahn to earn a place on the November ballot.[9]

Candidates edit

  • Rob Hahn[54]
    • Thomas J. Harens[11]
  • Tom Horner, public affairs consultant[55]
  • Phil Ratté[56][11]
    • Gayle-Lynn Lemaster[57]
  • John T. Uldrich[11]
    • Stephen Williams
  • Rahn V. Workcuff[11]
    • Mark F. Workcuff

Withdrew edit

Declined edit

Results edit

Independence Party primary results[62]
Party Candidate Votes %
Independence Tom Horner 11,380 64.2
Independence Rob Hahn 2,538 14.3
Independence John T. Uldrich 1,766 10.0
Independence Phile Ratté 1,215 7.0
Independence Rahn V. Workcuff 815 4.5
Total votes 17,714 100

General election edit

Early polls showed Emmer even with his likely DFL opponents, with Horner trailing far behind, and a large percentage of voters undecided.[63][64][65] As the race progressed, polls showed the candidates even, or Dayton with a small but significant lead.[66] The nonpartisan Cook Political Report, CQ Politics and pollster Rasmussen Reports rated the gubernatorial election a tossup,[67][68][69][70][71] while New York Times political statistician Nate Silver gave Dayton an 86% chance of winning and Emmer 14%.[72]

Dayton led Emmer at the close of balloting by 8770 votes (0.42%).[73] The margin of victory was small enough to trigger an automatic recount under state law, but analysts generally thought it unlikely that Dayton's lead would be overturned.[74]

Dayton became just the fourth victorious Minnesota Democrat to win a gubernatorial election with a Democrat in the White House in 28 cycles.[75]

Candidates edit

Predictions edit

Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[76] Tossup October 14, 2010
Rothenberg[77] Tilt D (flip) October 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics[78] Tossup November 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball[79] Lean D (flip) October 28, 2010
CQ Politics[80] Tossup October 28, 2010

Polling edit

Graphical summary
Poll source Dates administered Margion of Error Tom
Emmer (R)
Mark
Dayton (DFL)
Tom
Horner (I)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling Oct. 27 – 29, 2010 ±2.2% 40% 43% 15% 3%
SurveyUSA Oct. 24 – 27, 2010 ±4% 38% 39% 13% 9%
Minnesota Public Radio Oct. 21 – 25, 2010 ±3.6% 29% 41% 11% 20%
Oct. 10 – 21, 2010 ±5.0% 30% 40% 19% 10%
Oct. 18 – 21, 2010 ±3.9% 34% 41% 13% 12%
Rasmussen Reports Oct. 20, 2010 ±4.0% 41% 44% 10% 5%
Survey USA 2010-10-17 at the Wayback Machine Oct. 11 – 13, 2010 ±3.7% 37% 42% 14% 7%
Rasmussen Reports Oct. 6, 2010 ±4% 38% 40% 15% 7%
Humphrey Institute/MPR Sep. 22 – 26, 2010 ±3.6% 27% 38% 16% 19%
Minnesota Poll Sep. 20–23, 2010 ±4.1% 30% 39% 18% 13%
Rasmussen Reports Sep. 22, 2010 ±4% 42% 41% 9% 2%
Survey USA Sep. 12 – 14, 2010 ±3.9% 36% 38% 18% 4%
Humphrey Institute/MPR Aug. 31, 2010 ±5.3% 34% 34% 13% 19%
Rasmussen Reports Aug. 12, 2010 ±4.0% 36% 45% 10% 10%
Survey USA Aug. 2 – 4, 2010 ±2.7% 32% 46% 9% 13%
Minnesota Poll[permanent dead link] Jul. 26 – 29, 2010 ±4.3% 30% 40% 13% 17%
Rasmussen Reports Jul. 19, 2010 ±4.5% 36% 40% 10% 14%
Survey USA Jun. 14 – 16, 2010 ±2.5% 35% 38% 12% 15%
Decision Resources, Ltd. May 28 – Jun. 2, 2010 ±3.5% 28% 40% 18% 14%
Rasmussen Reports May 24, 2010 ±4.5% 37% 35% 12% 16%
May 13 – 16, 2010 ±5.8% 31% 35% 9% 25%
Survey USA May 3 – 5, 2010 ±4.1% 42% 34% 9% 15%
Rasmussen Reports Mar. 10, 2010 ±3% 35% 38% 7% 20%
Hypothetical polling
With Entenza
Poll source Dates administered Tom Emmer (R) Matt Entenza (DFL) Tom Horner (I) Undecided Sampling error
Survey USA August 2–4, 2010 33% 38% 12% 17% 2.7%
Minnesota Poll[permanent dead link] July 26–29, 2010 31% 36% 15% 17% 4.3%
Rasmussen Reports July 19, 2010 36% 37% 12% 15% 4.5%
Survey USA June 14–16, 2010 37% 33% 12% 18% 2.5%
Decision Resources, Ltd. May 28 – June 2, 2010 27% 34% 19% 20% 3.5%
Rasmussen Reports May 24, 2010 37% 34% 12% 17% 4.5%
May 13–16, 2010 32% 28% 11% 29% 5.8%
Survey USA May 3–5, 2010 42% 31% 10% 16% 4.1%
Rasmussen Reports March 10, 2010 37% 28% 8% 26% 3%
With Kelliher
Poll source Dates administered Tom Emmer (R) Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL) Tom Horner (I) Undecided Sampling error
Survey USA August 2–4, 2010 33% 39% 12% 17% 2.7%
Minnesota Poll[permanent dead link] July 26–29, 2010 29% 38% 13% 18% 4.3%
Rasmussen Reports July 19, 2010 35% 40% 11% 14% 4.5%
Survey USA June 14–16, 2010 35% 33% 12% 21% 2.5%
Decision Resources, Ltd. May 28 – June 2, 2010 28% 38% 17% 17% 3.5%
Rasmussen Reports May 24, 2010 38% 36% 11% 15% 4.5%
May 13–16, 2010 32% 29% 10% 30% 5.8%
Survey USA May 3–5, 2010 41% 33% 9% 17% 4.1%
Rasmussen Reports March 10, 2010 37% 34% 8% 19% 3%
With Pawlenty
Source Date Tim Pawlenty Mark Dayton
KSTP-TV/SurveyUSA May 20, 2009 47% 43%
Source Date Tim Pawlenty R. T. Rybak
KSTP-TV/SurveyUSA May 20, 2009 47% 42%
Source Date Tim Pawlenty Chris Coleman
KSTP-TV/SurveyUSA May 20, 2009 48% 37%
Source Date Tim Pawlenty Matt Entenza
KSTP-TV/SurveyUSA May 20, 2009 51% 37%
Source Date Tim Pawlenty Susan Gaertner
KSTP-TV/SurveyUSA May 20, 2009 50% 36%
Source Date Tim Pawlenty Tom Bakk
KSTP-TV/SurveyUSA May 20, 2009 52% 34%
Source Date Tim Pawlenty John Marty
KSTP-TV/SurveyUSA May 20, 2009 51% 34%
Source Date Tim Pawlenty Margaret Anderson Kelliher
KSTP-TV/SurveyUSA May 20, 2009 51% 34%
Source Date Tim Pawlenty Paul Thissen
KSTP-TV/SurveyUSA May 20, 2009 51% 32%
With Emmer
Source Date Tom Emmer Mark Dayton
Rasmussen Reports March 10, 2010 35% 38%
Source Date Tom Emmer Margaret Anderson Kelliher
Rasmussen Reports March 10, 2010 37% 34%
Source Date Tom Emmer R.T. Rybak
Rasmussen Reports March 10, 2010 35% 38%
Source Date Tom Emmer Tom Bakk
Rasmussen Reports March 10, 2010 36% 29%
Source Date Tom Emmer Tom Rukavina
Rasmussen Reports March 10, 2010 38% 29%
Source Date Tom Emmer Matt Entenza
Rasmussen Reports March 10, 2010 37% 28%
With Seifert
Source Date Marty Seifert Mark Dayton
Rasmussen Reports March 10, 2010 39% 38%
Source Date Marty Seifert Margaret Anderson Kelliher
Rasmussen Reports March 10, 2010 39% 35%
Source Date Marty Seifert R.T. Rybak
Rasmussen Reports March 10, 2010 38% 38%
Source Date Marty Seifert Tom Bakk
Rasmussen Reports March 10, 2010 37% 30%
Source Date Marty Seifert Tom Rukavina
Rasmussen Reports March 10, 2010 39% 30%
Source Date Marty Seifert Matt Entenza
Rasmussen Reports March 10, 2010 38% 30%
With Coleman
Source Date Norm Coleman R.T. Rybak
Public Policy Polling June 7–8, 2009 37% 43%
Source Date Norm Coleman Mark Dayton
Public Policy Polling June 7–8, 2009 39% 41%
Source Date Norm Coleman Margaret Anderson Kelliher
Public Policy Polling June 7–8, 2009 42% 34%

Results edit

 
 
 
County Results for the Independence Party:
Horner
  •      <9%
  •      9-10%
  •      10-11%
  •      11-12%
  •      12-13%
  •      13-14%
  •      14-15%
  •      15-16%
  •      16%<
2010 gubernatorial election results, Minnesota[73]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic (DFL) Mark Dayton 919,232 43.63% -2.07%
Republican Tom Emmer 910,462 43.21% -3.49%
Independence Tom Horner 251,487 11.94% +5.54%
Grassroots Chris Wright 7,516 0.36% n/a
Green Farheen Hakeem 6,188 0.29% -0.21%
Ecology Democracy Ken Pentel 6,180 0.29% n/a
Resource Party Linda Eno 4,092 0.19% n/a
Write-ins 1,864 0.09%
Total votes 2,106,979 100
Democratic (DFL) gain from Republican

Certified Results After Recount edit

The recount was carried out by the Minnesota Secretary of State, Mark Ritchie, as part of a State Canvassing Board, which consists of the secretary of state, two justices of the Minnesota Supreme Court, and two judges of a Minnesota district court.[81] The vote totals were not changed, and Dayton was declared the governor-elect.

2010 gubernatorial election results, Minnesota[73]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic (DFL) Mark Dayton/Yvonne Prettner Solon 919,232 43.63% -2.07%
Republican Tom Emmer/Annette Meeks 910,462 43.21% -3.49%
Independence Tom Horner/Jim Mulder 251,487 11.94% +5.54%
Grassroots Chris Wright 7,516 0.36% n/a
Green Farheen Hakeem 6,188 0.29% -0.21%
Ecology Democracy Ken Pentel 6,180 0.29% n/a
Resource Party Linda Eno 4,092 0.19% n/a
Write-ins 1,864 0.09%
Total votes 2,106,979 100
Democratic (DFL) gain from Republican
 
Olmsted County, Minnesota officials recounting votes on November 29, 2010

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican edit

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic edit

References edit

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External links edit

Official campaign websites (Archived)
  • (DFL)
  • (DFL)
  • (IP)
  • (R)
  • (EDP)

2010, minnesota, gubernatorial, election, held, tuesday, november, 2010, elect, 40th, governor, state, minnesota, four, year, term, begin, january, 2011, general, election, contested, major, party, candidates, state, representative, emmer, delano, former, sena. The 2010 Minnesota gubernatorial election was held on Tuesday November 2 2010 to elect the 40th Governor of the U S state of Minnesota for a four year term to begin in January 2011 The general election was contested by the major party candidates State Representative Tom Emmer R Delano former U S Senator Mark Dayton DFL and Independence Party candidate Tom Horner After a very close race Dayton was elected governor 1 Emmer would be elected to the United States House of Representatives four years later 2 2010 Minnesota gubernatorial election 2006 November 2 2010 2014 Nominee Mark Dayton Tom Emmer Tom Horner Party Democratic DFL Republican Independence Running mate Yvonne Prettner Solon Annette Meeks Jim Mulder Popular vote 919 232 910 462 251 487 Percentage 43 6 43 2 11 9 County resultsPrecinct resultsDayton 30 40 40 50 50 60 60 70 70 80 80 90 gt 90 Emmer 30 40 40 50 50 60 60 70 70 80 80 90 gt 90 Horner 30 40 40 50 60 70 gt 90 Tie 30 40 40 50 50 No votesGovernor before election Tim Pawlenty Republican Elected Governor Mark Dayton Democratic DFL This was the first time the Democrats won the governorship since Rudy Perpich won re election in 1986 With a margin of 0 4 this election was the closest race of the 2010 gubernatorial election cycle Contents 1 Republican primary 1 1 Candidates 1 1 1 Declared 1 1 2 Withdrew 1 1 3 Declined 1 2 Results 2 Democratic Farmer Labor primary 2 1 Candidates 2 1 1 Declared 2 1 2 Withdrew 2 1 3 Declined 2 2 Polling 2 3 Results 3 Independence primary 3 1 Candidates 3 2 Withdrew 3 3 Declined 3 4 Results 4 General election 4 1 Candidates 4 2 Predictions 4 3 Polling 4 4 Results 4 5 Certified Results After Recount 4 5 1 Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican 4 5 2 Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic 5 References 6 External linksRepublican primary editAfter incumbent Governor Tim Pawlenty announced in June 2009 that he would not seek a third term 3 the field was open for Republicans to seek their party s endorsement At the Minnesota GOP s off year state convention in October 2009 former Representative Marty Seifert took first place in a straw poll with 37 of the vote Representative Tom Emmer took second place with 23 Patricia Anderson had 14 and the rest of the participating candidates received less than 10 each 4 5 Seifert had another victory in the February 2 precinct caucuses winning a statewide straw poll of caucus attendees with 50 of the vote followed by Emmer with 39 None of the other candidates got beyond single digits 6 Delegates to the state convention however were more closely divided between Emmer and Seifert than the initial straw poll indicated Both camps claimed a delegate lead throughout the process leading up to the state convention but the outcome was uncertain and was ultimately decided on the convention floor 7 On April 30 Emmer won the Republican endorsement at the party s state convention in Minneapolis After Emmer won 56 of the vote on the second ballot Seifert withdrew from the race and threw his support to Emmer Emmer then chose Metropolitan Council member Annette Meeks as his running mate for lieutenant governor 8 Emmer won the August 10 primary earning a spot on the November ballot 9 Candidates edit Declared edit Bob Carney Jr inventor 10 William McGaughey 11 12 Leslie Davis environmental activist 11 13 14 Gregory K Soderberg Tom Emmer state representative 15 Annette Meeks Metropolitan Council Member Ole Savior perennial candidate artist poet Todd Elvis Anderson Elvis impersonator 16 Withdrew edit Patricia Anderson former State Auditor 17 Bill Haas former state representative former mayor of Champlin 18 David Hann state senator 19 Phil Herwig activist 4 20 Mike Jungbauer state senator former mayor of East Bethel 21 Paul Kohls state representative 22 Marty Seifert state representative former State House Minority Leader Declined edit Laura Brod state representative 23 Norm Coleman former U S Senator former St Paul mayor 24 25 Paul Koering state senator 26 27 Tim Pawlenty incumbent governor 3 Jim Ramstad former U S Representative 28 Brian Sullivan businessman 29 Steve Sviggum Commissioner of Labor and Industry and former State House Speaker 30 Charlie Weaver former Commissioner of Public Safety 31 Results edit Republican primary results 32 Party Candidate Votes Republican Tom Emmer 107 558 82 5 Republican Bob Carney Jr 9 856 7 6 Republican Leslie Davis 8 598 6 6 Republican Ole Savior 4 396 3 4 Total votes 130 408 100Democratic Farmer Labor primary editThe list of candidates seeking the DFL s nomination was long going into the February 2 caucuses with over 11 candidates having submitted their names for the candidate preference ballot Former U S Senator Mark Dayton notably declined to be included on the ballot Minneapolis Mayor R T Rybak won the straw poll with 21 8 of the vote with State House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher receiving 20 1 and uncommitted receiving 14 7 The other each candidates received single digit support 33 34 Former State Senator Steve Kelley dropped out of the race after a disappointing result in the straw poll State Senator Tom Bakk also dropped out on March 20 after announcing at the St Louis County Convention that he believed his chances of winning were slim On April 24 the DFL State Convention was held in Duluth State Senator John Marty withdrew from the race after seeing lower than expected support on the first ballot and State Representative Tom Rukavina withdrew after the fourth ballot endorsing Kelliher State Representative Paul Thissen withdrew after the fifth ballot and before the results of the sixth ballot were announced Rybak withdrew as well endorsing Kelliher 35 Kelliher was subsequently endorsed by the convention Ramsey County Attorney Susan Gaertner who had not sought the DFL endorsement but was planning to run in the primary dropped out two days later That left Kelliher facing Dayton and former State House Minority Leader Matt Entenza in the August primary Shortly after the end of the 2010 legislative term all three major DFL candidates had announced their choices for lieutenant governor On May 21 Kelliher announced that John Gunyou would be her running mate Gunyou is Minnetonka City Manager and was state finance commissioner in Republican Governor Arne Carlson s administration 36 On May 24 Dayton announced Yvonne Prettner Solon as his running mate Solon is a psychologist and three term state senator 37 On May 27 Entenza announced Robyne Robinson as his running mate Robinson is a small business owner and former TV anchor 38 Dayton narrowly won the August 10 primary earning the right to serve as his party s nominee 39 He was formally endorsed by the DFL on August 21 40 Candidates edit nbsp Candidate Mark Dayton speaking at a debate 2009 Declared edit Mark Dayton former United States Senator 41 Yvonne Prettner Solon Minnesota State Senator 37 Matt Entenza former State House Minority Leader 42 Robyne Robinson former television personality 38 Margaret Anderson Kelliher State Speaker of the House John Gunyou Minnetonka City Manager 36 Peter Idusogie Lady Jayne Fontaine 11 Withdrew edit Tom Bakk state senator 43 Susan Gaertner Ramsey County Attorney 44 Steve Kelley former state senator 45 46 John Marty state senator and 1994 DFL gubernatorial nominee 45 Patricia Torres Ray state senator 47 Tom Rukavina state representative 48 R T Rybak Minneapolis mayor 49 Paul Thissen state representative 50 Declined edit Chris Coleman Mayor of Saint Paul 51 Mike Opat Chairman of the Hennepin County Board of Commissioners 52 Polling edit Poll source Dates administered Mark Dayton Matt Entenza Margaret Anderson Kelliher Undecided Sampling error Survey USA August 2 4 2010 43 22 27 8 4 5 Minnesota Poll permanent dead link July 26 29 2010 40 17 30 13 7 3 Survey USA June 14 16 2010 39 22 26 11 4 5 Humphrey Institute MPR May 13 16 2010 38 6 28 28 8 75 Results edit nbsp Results by county Dayton 30 40 40 50 50 60 60 70 Kelliher 30 40 40 50 Entenza 30 40 50 60 At 11 50 p m on primary night Dayton took the lead from Kelliher who had held an ever shrinking lead since the polls closed Democratic Farmer Labor primary results 32 Party Candidate Votes Democratic DFL Mark Dayton 182 738 41 3 Democratic DFL Margaret Anderson Kelliher 175 767 39 8 Democratic DFL Matt Entenza 80 509 18 2 Democratic DFL Peter Idusogie 3 123 0 7 Total votes 442 137 100Independence primary editOn Sunday May 9 2010 Tom Horner won the endorsement of the Independence Party for governor His main opponent Rob Hahn said he would contest the primary 53 Horner won the August 10 primary defeating Hahn to earn a place on the November ballot 9 Candidates edit Rob Hahn 54 Thomas J Harens 11 Tom Horner public affairs consultant 55 Jim Mulder 11 Phil Ratte 56 11 Gayle Lynn Lemaster 57 John T Uldrich 11 Stephen Williams Rahn V Workcuff 11 Mark F Workcuff Withdrew edit Joe Repya former lieutenant colonel in the U S Army 58 59 Declined edit Tim Penny former U S Representative 60 Dean Barkley former U S Senator 61 Peter Bell Metropolitan Council Chair 61 David Olson Minnesota Chamber of Commerce President 61 Results edit Independence Party primary results 62 Party Candidate Votes Independence Tom Horner 11 380 64 2 Independence Rob Hahn 2 538 14 3 Independence John T Uldrich 1 766 10 0 Independence Phile Ratte 1 215 7 0 Independence Rahn V Workcuff 815 4 5 Total votes 17 714 100General election editEarly polls showed Emmer even with his likely DFL opponents with Horner trailing far behind and a large percentage of voters undecided 63 64 65 As the race progressed polls showed the candidates even or Dayton with a small but significant lead 66 The nonpartisan Cook Political Report CQ Politics and pollster Rasmussen Reports rated the gubernatorial election a tossup 67 68 69 70 71 while New York Times political statistician Nate Silver gave Dayton an 86 chance of winning and Emmer 14 72 Dayton led Emmer at the close of balloting by 8770 votes 0 42 73 The margin of victory was small enough to trigger an automatic recount under state law but analysts generally thought it unlikely that Dayton s lead would be overturned 74 Dayton became just the fourth victorious Minnesota Democrat to win a gubernatorial election with a Democrat in the White House in 28 cycles 75 Candidates edit Tom Emmer R State Representative and Annette Meeks Metropolitan Council Member 15 Mark Dayton DFL former United States Senator and Yvonne Prettner Solon Minnesota State Senator 37 41 Tom Horner IP public affairs consultant and Jim Mulder 11 55 Ken Pentel EDP and Erin Wallace 11 Farheen Hakeem G and Dan Dittman 11 Chris Wright GR and Edwin Engelmann 11 Linda Eno Resource Party and Howard Hanson 11 Predictions edit Source Ranking As of Cook Political Report 76 Tossup October 14 2010 Rothenberg 77 Tilt D flip October 28 2010 RealClearPolitics 78 Tossup November 1 2010 Sabato s Crystal Ball 79 Lean D flip October 28 2010 CQ Politics 80 Tossup October 28 2010 Polling edit Graphical summary Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki org Poll source Dates administered Margion of Error TomEmmer R MarkDayton DFL TomHorner I Undecided Public Policy Polling Oct 27 29 2010 2 2 40 43 15 3 SurveyUSA Oct 24 27 2010 4 38 39 13 9 Minnesota Public Radio Oct 21 25 2010 3 6 29 41 11 20 St Cloud State University Oct 10 21 2010 5 0 30 40 19 10 Minnesota Poll Oct 18 21 2010 3 9 34 41 13 12 Rasmussen Reports Oct 20 2010 4 0 41 44 10 5 Survey USA Archived 2010 10 17 at the Wayback Machine Oct 11 13 2010 3 7 37 42 14 7 Rasmussen Reports Oct 6 2010 4 38 40 15 7 Humphrey Institute MPR Sep 22 26 2010 3 6 27 38 16 19 Minnesota Poll Sep 20 23 2010 4 1 30 39 18 13 Rasmussen Reports Sep 22 2010 4 42 41 9 2 Survey USA Sep 12 14 2010 3 9 36 38 18 4 Humphrey Institute MPR Aug 31 2010 5 3 34 34 13 19 Rasmussen Reports Aug 12 2010 4 0 36 45 10 10 Survey USA Aug 2 4 2010 2 7 32 46 9 13 Minnesota Poll permanent dead link Jul 26 29 2010 4 3 30 40 13 17 Rasmussen Reports Jul 19 2010 4 5 36 40 10 14 Survey USA Jun 14 16 2010 2 5 35 38 12 15 Decision Resources Ltd May 28 Jun 2 2010 3 5 28 40 18 14 Rasmussen Reports May 24 2010 4 5 37 35 12 16 Humphrey Institute MPR May 13 16 2010 5 8 31 35 9 25 Survey USA May 3 5 2010 4 1 42 34 9 15 Rasmussen Reports Mar 10 2010 3 35 38 7 20 Hypothetical pollingWith Entenza Poll source Dates administered Tom Emmer R Matt Entenza DFL Tom Horner I Undecided Sampling error Survey USA August 2 4 2010 33 38 12 17 2 7 Minnesota Poll permanent dead link July 26 29 2010 31 36 15 17 4 3 Rasmussen Reports July 19 2010 36 37 12 15 4 5 Survey USA June 14 16 2010 37 33 12 18 2 5 Decision Resources Ltd May 28 June 2 2010 27 34 19 20 3 5 Rasmussen Reports May 24 2010 37 34 12 17 4 5 Humphrey Institute MPR May 13 16 2010 32 28 11 29 5 8 Survey USA May 3 5 2010 42 31 10 16 4 1 Rasmussen Reports March 10 2010 37 28 8 26 3 With Kelliher Poll source Dates administered Tom Emmer R Margaret Anderson Kelliher DFL Tom Horner I Undecided Sampling error Survey USA August 2 4 2010 33 39 12 17 2 7 Minnesota Poll permanent dead link July 26 29 2010 29 38 13 18 4 3 Rasmussen Reports July 19 2010 35 40 11 14 4 5 Survey USA June 14 16 2010 35 33 12 21 2 5 Decision Resources Ltd May 28 June 2 2010 28 38 17 17 3 5 Rasmussen Reports May 24 2010 38 36 11 15 4 5 Humphrey Institute MPR May 13 16 2010 32 29 10 30 5 8 Survey USA May 3 5 2010 41 33 9 17 4 1 Rasmussen Reports March 10 2010 37 34 8 19 3 With Pawlenty Source Date Tim Pawlenty Mark Dayton KSTP TV SurveyUSA May 20 2009 47 43 Source Date Tim Pawlenty R T Rybak KSTP TV SurveyUSA May 20 2009 47 42 Source Date Tim Pawlenty Chris Coleman KSTP TV SurveyUSA May 20 2009 48 37 Source Date Tim Pawlenty Matt Entenza KSTP TV SurveyUSA May 20 2009 51 37 Source Date Tim Pawlenty Susan Gaertner KSTP TV SurveyUSA May 20 2009 50 36 Source Date Tim Pawlenty Tom Bakk KSTP TV SurveyUSA May 20 2009 52 34 Source Date Tim Pawlenty John Marty KSTP TV SurveyUSA May 20 2009 51 34 Source Date Tim Pawlenty Margaret Anderson Kelliher KSTP TV SurveyUSA May 20 2009 51 34 Source Date Tim Pawlenty Paul Thissen KSTP TV SurveyUSA May 20 2009 51 32 With Emmer Source Date Tom Emmer Mark Dayton Rasmussen Reports March 10 2010 35 38 Source Date Tom Emmer Margaret Anderson Kelliher Rasmussen Reports March 10 2010 37 34 Source Date Tom Emmer R T Rybak Rasmussen Reports March 10 2010 35 38 Source Date Tom Emmer Tom Bakk Rasmussen Reports March 10 2010 36 29 Source Date Tom Emmer Tom Rukavina Rasmussen Reports March 10 2010 38 29 Source Date Tom Emmer Matt Entenza Rasmussen Reports March 10 2010 37 28 With Seifert Source Date Marty Seifert Mark Dayton Rasmussen Reports March 10 2010 39 38 Source Date Marty Seifert Margaret Anderson Kelliher Rasmussen Reports March 10 2010 39 35 Source Date Marty Seifert R T Rybak Rasmussen Reports March 10 2010 38 38 Source Date Marty Seifert Tom Bakk Rasmussen Reports March 10 2010 37 30 Source Date Marty Seifert Tom Rukavina Rasmussen Reports March 10 2010 39 30 Source Date Marty Seifert Matt Entenza Rasmussen Reports March 10 2010 38 30 With Coleman Source Date Norm Coleman R T Rybak Public Policy Polling June 7 8 2009 37 43 Source Date Norm Coleman Mark Dayton Public Policy Polling June 7 8 2009 39 41 Source Date Norm Coleman Margaret Anderson Kelliher Public Policy Polling June 7 8 2009 42 34 Results edit nbsp Swing by countyLegend Democratic 10 12 5 Democratic 7 5 10 Democratic 5 7 5 Democratic 2 5 5 Democratic 0 2 5 Republican 0 2 5 Republican 2 5 5 Republican 5 7 5 Republican 7 5 10 Republican 10 12 5 nbsp Trend by countyLegend Democratic 10 12 5 Democratic 7 5 10 Democratic 5 7 5 Democratic 2 5 5 Democratic 0 2 5 Republican 0 2 5 Republican 2 5 5 Republican 5 7 5 Republican 7 5 10 Republican 10 12 5 nbsp County Results for the Independence Party Horner lt 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 15 15 16 16 lt 2010 gubernatorial election results Minnesota 73 Party Candidate Votes Democratic DFL Mark Dayton 919 232 43 63 2 07 Republican Tom Emmer 910 462 43 21 3 49 Independence Tom Horner 251 487 11 94 5 54 Grassroots Chris Wright 7 516 0 36 n a Green Farheen Hakeem 6 188 0 29 0 21 Ecology Democracy Ken Pentel 6 180 0 29 n a Resource Party Linda Eno 4 092 0 19 n a Write ins 1 864 0 09 Total votes 2 106 979 100 Democratic DFL gain from Republican Certified Results After Recount edit The recount was carried out by the Minnesota Secretary of State Mark Ritchie as part of a State Canvassing Board which consists of the secretary of state two justices of the Minnesota Supreme Court and two judges of a Minnesota district court 81 The vote totals were not changed and Dayton was declared the governor elect 2010 gubernatorial election results Minnesota 73 Party Candidate Votes Democratic DFL Mark Dayton Yvonne Prettner Solon 919 232 43 63 2 07 Republican Tom Emmer Annette Meeks 910 462 43 21 3 49 Independence Tom Horner Jim Mulder 251 487 11 94 5 54 Grassroots Chris Wright 7 516 0 36 n a Green Farheen Hakeem 6 188 0 29 0 21 Ecology Democracy Ken Pentel 6 180 0 29 n a Resource Party Linda Eno 4 092 0 19 n a Write ins 1 864 0 09 Total votes 2 106 979 100 Democratic DFL gain from Republican nbsp Olmsted County Minnesota officials recounting votes on November 29 2010 Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican edit Clearwater Largest city Bagley Grant Largest city Elbow Lake Pennington Largest city Thief River Falls Lincoln largest city Tyler Pine largest city Pine City Fillmore largest city Spring Valley Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic edit Clay Largest city Moorhead Nicollet Largest city North Mankato References edit Democrat Dayton wins Minnesota Gov recount cnn com Archived from the original on March 4 2020 Retrieved April 4 2018 Minnesota Election Results The New York Times a b Kessler Pat June 2 2009 Pawlenty Won t Seek 3rd Term So What s Next WCCO Archived from the original on April 28 2010 Retrieved November 4 2010 a b Rachel E Stassen Berger Star Tribune October 3 2009 Seifert is top GOP pick for governor in straw poll StarTribune com Retrieved May 4 2010 KSTP TV Minneapolis and St Paul Seifert Wins GOP Straw Poll Kstp com Archived from the original on October 5 2009 Retrieved May 4 2010 Caucus night Seifert wins Kelliher Rybak too close to call Politicsinminnesota com February 3 2010 Retrieved May 4 2010 GOP gov hopefuls Seifert and Emmer take neck and neck race to convention delegates April 28 2010 Retrieved May 4 2010 GOP gubernatorial candidate Tom Emmer picks Met Council member Annette Meeks as his running mate TwinCities com April 27 2010 Retrieved May 4 2010 a b Star Tribune Elections startribune com Archived from the original on July 16 2011 Retrieved November 4 2010 Tim Pugmire January 11 2010 Field of gubernatorial candidates continues to grow Minnesota Public Radio Retrieved May 4 2010 a b c d e f g h i j k l m Candidates for State Office Minnesota Secretary of State Retrieved June 30 2010 News Release Republicancontract com April 25 2010 Retrieved August 21 2010 Leslie Davis for Governor Minnesota Lesliedavis org June 30 2009 Retrieved May 4 2010 GOP Plans Gubernatorial Straw Poll Saint Paul Pioneer Press July 18 2009 a b Tim Nelson July 6 2009 Rep Tom Emmer joins governor s race Minnesota Public Radio Retrieved June 30 2010 My Lt Governor is Elvis wordpress com May 19 2010 Retrieved April 4 2018 Twin Cities MN Anderson out of gov s race says Coleman a factor kare11 com Archived from the original on January 27 2013 Retrieved May 4 2010 Twin Cities MN former Minn GOP lawmaker to run for governor kare11 com Archived from the original on January 27 2013 Retrieved May 4 2010 Hann drops out of Minn governor s race StarTribune com Associated Press February 16 2010 Archived from the original on February 21 2010 Retrieved May 4 2010 Principal Campaign Committee Registration Information Cfboard state mn us Archived from the original on May 15 2010 Retrieved May 4 2010 Republican Jungbauer drops run for Minn governor Minnesota Public Radio NewsQ Minnesota publicradio org November 11 2009 Retrieved May 4 2010 Republican Kohls Suspends Campaign For MN Governor WCCO October 29 2009 Retrieved May 4 2010 dead link Kevin Duchschere Star Tribune July 7 2009 Seifert brings his farming roots into governor s race StarTribune com Retrieved May 4 2010 permanent dead link Coleman comments on gov run Polinaut Minnesota Public Radio June 4 2009 Retrieved May 4 2010 Norm Coleman ponders 2010 gubernatorial run Minnesota Public Radio NewsQ Minnesota publicradio org October 3 2009 Retrieved May 4 2010 Latest Minnesota news sports business and entertainment KXMC permanent dead link As a gay candidate for governor Paul Koering says he has no party support Archived from the original on August 15 2009 Retrieved August 21 2009 Ramstad says he won t run for Minn governor Star Tribune July 14 2009 Retrieved July 14 2009 permanent dead link At The Capitol Sullivan not running for governor in 2010 TwinCities com June 11 2009 Retrieved May 4 2010 Steve Sviggum interested in running for governor Rochester Post Bulletin June 3 2009 Archived from the original on July 15 2011 Retrieved July 5 2009 Stassen Rachel E November 23 2009 GOP s Charlie Weaver opts out of governor s race StarTribune com Archived from the original on April 11 2011 Retrieved May 4 2010 a b The 2010 Results Maps Politico Com Retrieved August 21 2010 Preference Ballot for Governor Unofficial results Results Statewide for Democratic Farmer Labor Party Minnesota Secretary of State February 3 2010 Caucus night Seifert wins GOP poll DFLers vote Rybak Star Tribune February 3 2010 Archived from the original on March 30 2010 Retrieved May 4 2010 Steve Perry February 3 2010 Ballot by ballot results Star Tribune Retrieved May 4 2010 a b Doug Grow May 21 2010 Kelliher takes a calculated risk with choice of John Gunyou as running mate MinnPost Archived from the original on May 24 2010 Retrieved May 22 2010 a b c Dayton picks state Sen Prettner Solon as running mate Minnesota Public Radio NewsQ May 24 2010 Retrieved August 21 2010 a b Entenza chooses Robinson as his running mate Star Tribune May 27 2010 Archived from the original on May 30 2010 Retrieved August 21 2010 AP Dayton Wins DFL Nomination For Governor WCCO August 11 2010 Retrieved November 4 2010 dead link DFL formally endorses Dayton candidate gives them red meat before annual barbecue MinnPost Archived from the original on September 8 2010 Retrieved November 4 2010 a b Former U S Senator Dayton Running For Governor Keyc com July 31 2009 Retrieved May 4 2010 permanent dead link Lopez Patricia April 23 2009 Entenza announces bid for Governor in 10 Star Tribune Retrieved May 4 2010 1 Archived August 2 2009 at the Wayback Machine Mannix Andy April 26 2010 Susan Gaertner drops out of governor race Blogs citypages com Archived from the original on May 5 2010 Retrieved May 4 2010 a b Suburban lawmaker Hann wants to be Minn governor Minneapolis Star Tribune permanent dead link DFLer Steve Kelley drops out of Minn gov race Minnesota Public radio NewsQ February 4 2010 Retrieved May 4 2010 Marty picks running mate state Sen Patricia Torres Ray MinnPost March 31 2010 Archived from the original on July 14 2010 Retrieved July 20 2010 Star Tribune July 23 2009 Thissen launches run for governor Rukavina explores run Star Tribune Archived from the original on July 26 2009 Retrieved May 4 2010 Kelliher endorsed Rybak concedes nomination Minnpost com Archived from the original on April 29 2010 Retrieved May 4 2010 Star Tribune July 23 2009 Thissen launches run for governor Rukavina explores run Star Tribune Retrieved May 4 2010 permanent dead link Campbell Bradley October 8 2009 Chris Coleman will NOT run for Governor Minneapolis St Paul News The Blotter Blogs citypages com Archived from the original on May 5 2010 Retrieved May 4 2010 Gubernatorial Candidates Ins and Outs and maybes of the Race MinnPost July 20 2009 Archived from the original on July 2 2009 Retrieved August 10 2008 Mannix Andy May 9 2010 Tom Horner wins IP endorsement Blogs citypages com Archived from the original on November 2 2010 Retrieved November 4 2010 Tim Pugmire January 14 2010 Rob Hahn publisher joins gov race for Independence Party a b Bob Von Sternberg March 2 2010 Tom Horner tops IP gubernatorial field Minneapolis Star Tribune permanent dead link Resume and Biography Community 2 webtv net Archived from the original on April 2 2012 Retrieved August 21 2010 LeMaster Gayle Lynn August 10 2010 Archived from the original on January 28 2011 Retrieved August 21 2010 Repya turns to fight for IP endorsement in gubernatorial race Twincities com January 20 2010 Retrieved May 4 2010 Joe Repya drops out of governor s race kare11 com February 22 2010 Archived from the original on July 23 2013 Retrieved July 23 2013 Who s in for 2010 Third party contenders Minnesota Independent News Politics Media Minnesotaindependent com Retrieved May 4 2010 a b c Who s in for 2010 Third party contenders Minnesotaindependent com Retrieved May 4 2010 Election Reporting Electionresults sos state mn us August 10 2010 Archived from the original on February 29 2012 Retrieved August 21 2010 Mark Zdechlik May 19 2010 MPR Humphrey Institute poll Dayton leads DFL race for governor Minnesota Public Radio Retrieved May 27 2010 Dayton Starts with Edge in Democratic Primary and Fall Election PDF Humphrey Institute University of Minnesota Archived from the original PDF on June 17 2010 KSTP TV Minneapolis and St Paul Exclusive Poll results in the 2010 Minn gov race Kstp com Archived from the original on May 16 2010 Retrieved August 21 2010 Rasmussen Reports Rasmussen Reports July 19 2010 Retrieved November 4 2010 2010 Governors Race Ratings Cook Political Report Retrieved October 29 2010 Race Ratings Chart Governor CQ Politics Archived from the original on October 5 2010 Retrieved October 29 2010 MPR News Humphrey Institute poll Dayton Emmer deadlocked Minnesota Public Radio News Minnesota publicradio org August 31 2010 Retrieved November 4 2010 Stassen Berger Rachel August 1 2010 Minnesota Poll Star Tribune Retrieved November 4 2010 permanent dead link Election 2010 Gubernatorial Scorecard Rasmussen Reports Retrieved October 29 2010 FiveThirtyEight Forecasts Minnesota Governor Elections nytimes com Retrieved November 4 2010 a b c Minnesota Secretary of State s Office Retrieved November 3 2010 Electionresults sos state mn us February 26 1997 Archived from the original on November 6 2010 Retrieved November 4 2010 Prelude to a recount Politics in Minnesota November 3 2010 Retrieved November 3 2010 Ostermeier Eric December 6 2013 Can Dayton Catch Lightning in a Bottle Twice Smart Politics 2010 Governors Race Ratings Cook Political Report Archived from the original on October 28 2010 Retrieved October 28 2010 Governor Ratings Rothenberg Political Report Retrieved October 28 2010 2010 Governor Races RealClearPolitics Retrieved October 28 2010 THE CRYSTAL BALL S FINAL CALLS Sabato s Crystal Ball October 28 2010 Retrieved October 28 2010 Race Ratings Chart Governor CQ Politics Archived from the original on October 5 2010 Retrieved October 28 2010 http www house leg state mn us hrd pubs ss ssrecount htm Minnesota House of Representatives Retrieved November 3 2010 External links editThis article s use of external links may not follow Wikipedia s policies or guidelines Please improve this article by removing excessive or inappropriate external links and converting useful links where appropriate into footnote references December 2023 Learn how and when to remove this message Complete Set of 2010 Minnesota Governor Polling Data and Interactive Graph Minnesota Secretary of State Elections amp Voting Archived 2010 07 17 at the Wayback Machine Minnesota State Offices at Project Vote Smart Campaign contributions for 2010 Minnesota Governor from Follow the Money 2010 Minnesota Gubernatorial Primary Election Matchups graph of multiple polls from Pollster com Election 2010 Minnesota Governor from Rasmussen Reports 2010 Minnesota Governor Emmer vs Dayton vs Horner from Real Clear Politics 2010 Minnesota Governor s Race from CQ Politics 2010 MN Governor s Race from Politics in Minnesota Race Profile in The New York Times State Elections at the Minneapolis Star Tribune Official campaign websites Archived Mark Dayton for Governor DFL Margaret Anderson Kelliher for Governor DFL Tom Horner for Governor IP Tom Emmer for Governor R Ken Pentel for Governor EDP Retrieved from https en wikipedia org w index php title 2010 Minnesota gubernatorial election amp oldid 1221309722, wikipedia, wiki, book, books, library,

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