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2006 California's 50th congressional district special election

A special election was held in California's 50th congressional district to choose a new member of the U.S. Representative to fill the vacancy caused by the resignation of Republican Randy Cunningham, who resigned November 28, 2005 after pleading guilty to bribery, wire fraud, mail fraud, and tax evasion charges. (On March 3, 2006, he was sentenced to eight years and four months in federal prison).

2006 California's 50th congressional district special election

← 2004 June 6, 2006 November 2006 →
 
Nominee Brian Bilbray Francine Busby
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 78,341 71,146
Percentage 49.30 44.77

Representative before election

Duke Cunningham
Republican

Elected Representative

Brian Bilbray
Republican

The special primary election was held on April 11, 2006. A candidate who received a majority of the vote would have served out the rest of Cunningham's term. As no candidate won a simple majority, the top vote-getters in each party, Democrat Francine Busby and Republican Brian Bilbray, competed in a runoff special general election held on June 6, 2006, the same day that primaries were held for the November 2006 general election.

Bilbray won the special election 49 percent to 45 percent and was sworn in as a U.S. Representative on June 13, 2006. In the June 6 primary election for the November 2006 election, both candidates won their party's nomination. In the November 2006 general election rematch, Bilbray won re-election.

National implications edit

Because the 50th is considered to be a heavily Republican district, it would have been considered major news if Busby had won.[1] "This is a biggie," said Carl Luna, a political science professor at San Diego's Mesa College. "Everyone is going to be reading the tea leaves as a predictor of November."[2] For that reason, the National Republican Congressional Committee spent $5 million on this race.[3]

Controversies edit

During the campaign, Arizona Senator John McCain cancelled a planned fundraiser for Bilbray at the last minute, after Bilbray criticized McCain's immigration bill as "amnesty" for illegal immigrants.[4]

On June 2, five days before the special congressional election, Busby was recorded telling a largely Hispanic group that "You can all help--you don't need papers for voting, you don't need to be a registered voter to help." This comment was in response to a question by a man who asked in Spanish, "I want to help, but I don't have papers."[5] The recording was circulated over the Internet and on radio. Republicans claimed Busby was encouraging people to vote illegally, while Busby claimed she misspoke and meant that a person does not need to be a registered voter to help her campaign (such as phoning registered voters).[6]

A number of irregularities in the election were alleged, including the swearing in of Bilbray by a member of his own party 17 days before the election was certified, "electronic voting machines sent out to the homes and cars of volunteers for up to 12 days prior to the election, and irregular election results like huge mega-precincts of absentee ballots where turnout was thousands of percent more than registered voters." The Democratic National Committee's Voting Rights Institute raised several concerns about the fairness and accuracy of the vote count.[7] An election contest lawsuit sought a hand recount.[8] The court dismissed the suit on the basis that, once the House of Representatives had sworn in Bilbray, the court lacked jurisdiction to hear the challenge.[9]

Post Special-Election analysis edit

Political analyst Larry Sabato wrote in his Crystal Ball newsletter: "What a difference four percentage points makes! That was Bilbray's margin over Busby, a gaffe-prone, lackluster candidate who was out of her league. With six years (1995–2001) under his belt from another California House district, former congressman Bilbray understood what it took to win a tough campaign, and riding the immigration issue, he did so. The DCCC forced the NRCC to pull out all the stops and spend a large fortune for Bilbray, but given the dam that might have burst had Busby won, it was worth every GOP penny for them."[10]

Run-off and Primary elections edit

The June 6, 2006 run-off was held at the same time as the primary election for the biennial November 7, 2006 general election. This created a peculiar opportunity for voters to vote on the same ballot for two different people for the same post; one to immediately fill the vacant seat, the other to run in the November election.

Polling edit

Source Date Francine Busby (D) Brian Bilbray (R) Other None Undecided Margin of Error
Survey USA May 30 to June 1, 2006 45% 47% 9% 0% 4.7%
May 12–15, 2006 47% 40% 1% 12% 4.9%
Survey USA May 5–7, 2006 45% 45% 9% 1% 4.8%
April 29–30, 2006 43% 37% 2% 5% 13% 5%

Results edit

On April 11, Democrat Francine Busby garnered 43.63 percent of the vote, 6.38 percentage points short of the majority necessary to avoid a runoff race. She faced the leading vote getter from the two other parties participating: Republican Brian Bilbray and Libertarian Paul King, as well as independent candidate William Griffith, in a June 6 runoff.

In the June 6 runoff, Bilbray received a plurality with 78,341 votes (49.30%) to become the district's congressman for the remainder of the 109th Congress (until January 3, 2007).

For the new term beginning in 2007, the primaries were held on June 6, 2006, concurrent with the special election. Busby and Bilbray each captured their party's nomination (as did Libertarian Paul King and Peace and Freedom candidate Miriam E. Clark). In the November, 2006 general election, Bilbray was again declared the winner.

Endorsements edit

Individuals
California's 50th congressional district special primary, 2006[12]
Party Candidate Votes Percentage
Democratic Francine Busby 60,010 43.63
Republican Brian Bilbray 20,952 15.23
Republican Eric Roach 19,891 14.46
Republican Howard Kaloogian 10,207 7.42
Republican Bill Morrow 7,369 5.36
Republican Alan Uke 5,477 3.98
Republican Richard Earnest 2,957 2.15
Republican Bill Hauf 2,207 1.60
Republican Scott Turner 2,041 1.48
Democratic Chris Young 1,808 1.31
Independent William Griffith 1,111 0.81
Republican Victor Ramirez 912 0.66
Libertarian Paul King 819 0.60
Republican Jeff Newsome 574 0.42
Republican Scott Orren 345 0.25
Republican Delecia Holt 261 0.19
Republican Bill Boyer 204 0.15
Republican Milton Gale 58 0.04
Invalid ballots 326 0.24
Totals 137,529 100.00
Voter turnout 38.86
California's 50th congressional district special election, 2006[13]
Party Candidate Votes Percentage
Republican Brian Bilbray 78,341 49.57
Democratic Francine Busby 71,146 45.02
Independent William Griffith (write-in) 6,027 3.81
Libertarian Paul King 2,519 1.59
Independent Paul Martens (write-in) 0 0.00
Invalid ballots 882 0.56
Totals 158,915 100.00
Voter turnout 44.71

See also edit

References edit

  1. ^ "Washington Whispers: GOP Fears in a Bellwether Race". U.S. News & World Report. June 5, 2006.
  2. ^ Perry, Tony (May 30, 2006). "Key Race Is Seen as a Test of GOP's Vulnerability". Los Angeles Times.
  3. ^ . The Hill. June 8, 2006. Archived from the original on June 14, 2006.
  4. ^ "McCain Pulls out of Bilbray Fundraiser", San Diego Union-Tribune, May 31, 2006
  5. ^ Dodge, Dani (June 3, 2006). "Busby on defense, says she misspoke". San Diego Union-Tribune.
  6. ^ SignOnSanDiego.com > News > Politics - Busby on defense, says she misspoke
  7. ^ Moore, Greg (July 14, 2006). . Democratic National Committee. Archived from the original on March 3, 2007. Retrieved April 3, 2007.
  8. ^ Congressional Election Nullified – Nobody Noticed, Scoop (news website), August 25, 2006
  9. ^ LaVelle, Philip J. (August 30, 2006). "Judge throws out suit seeking to void election of Rep. Bilbray". San Diego Union-Tribune.
  10. ^ Sabato, Larry (June 15, 2006). . University of Virginia Center for Politics. Archived from the original on June 17, 2006.
  11. ^ . Archived from the original on May 26, 2006.
  12. ^ . Secretary of State of California. April 21, 2006. Archived from the original on April 24, 2008. Retrieved April 26, 2008.
  13. ^ 2006 special election results

External links edit

  • New York Times article on the results

2006, california, 50th, congressional, district, special, election, special, election, held, california, 50th, congressional, district, choose, member, representative, fill, vacancy, caused, resignation, republican, randy, cunningham, resigned, november, 2005,. A special election was held in California s 50th congressional district to choose a new member of the U S Representative to fill the vacancy caused by the resignation of Republican Randy Cunningham who resigned November 28 2005 after pleading guilty to bribery wire fraud mail fraud and tax evasion charges On March 3 2006 he was sentenced to eight years and four months in federal prison 2006 California s 50th congressional district special election 2004 June 6 2006 November 2006 Nominee Brian Bilbray Francine BusbyParty Republican DemocraticPopular vote 78 341 71 146Percentage 49 30 44 77Representative before electionDuke CunninghamRepublican Elected Representative Brian BilbrayRepublicanThe special primary election was held on April 11 2006 A candidate who received a majority of the vote would have served out the rest of Cunningham s term As no candidate won a simple majority the top vote getters in each party Democrat Francine Busby and Republican Brian Bilbray competed in a runoff special general election held on June 6 2006 the same day that primaries were held for the November 2006 general election Bilbray won the special election 49 percent to 45 percent and was sworn in as a U S Representative on June 13 2006 In the June 6 primary election for the November 2006 election both candidates won their party s nomination In the November 2006 general election rematch Bilbray won re election Contents 1 National implications 1 1 Controversies 1 2 Post Special Election analysis 2 Run off and Primary elections 2 1 Polling 3 Results 3 1 Endorsements 4 See also 5 References 6 External linksNational implications editBecause the 50th is considered to be a heavily Republican district it would have been considered major news if Busby had won 1 This is a biggie said Carl Luna a political science professor at San Diego s Mesa College Everyone is going to be reading the tea leaves as a predictor of November 2 For that reason the National Republican Congressional Committee spent 5 million on this race 3 Controversies edit During the campaign Arizona Senator John McCain cancelled a planned fundraiser for Bilbray at the last minute after Bilbray criticized McCain s immigration bill as amnesty for illegal immigrants 4 On June 2 five days before the special congressional election Busby was recorded telling a largely Hispanic group that You can all help you don t need papers for voting you don t need to be a registered voter to help This comment was in response to a question by a man who asked in Spanish I want to help but I don t have papers 5 The recording was circulated over the Internet and on radio Republicans claimed Busby was encouraging people to vote illegally while Busby claimed she misspoke and meant that a person does not need to be a registered voter to help her campaign such as phoning registered voters 6 A number of irregularities in the election were alleged including the swearing in of Bilbray by a member of his own party 17 days before the election was certified electronic voting machines sent out to the homes and cars of volunteers for up to 12 days prior to the election and irregular election results like huge mega precincts of absentee ballots where turnout was thousands of percent more than registered voters The Democratic National Committee s Voting Rights Institute raised several concerns about the fairness and accuracy of the vote count 7 An election contest lawsuit sought a hand recount 8 The court dismissed the suit on the basis that once the House of Representatives had sworn in Bilbray the court lacked jurisdiction to hear the challenge 9 Post Special Election analysis edit Political analyst Larry Sabato wrote in his Crystal Ball newsletter What a difference four percentage points makes That was Bilbray s margin over Busby a gaffe prone lackluster candidate who was out of her league With six years 1995 2001 under his belt from another California House district former congressman Bilbray understood what it took to win a tough campaign and riding the immigration issue he did so The DCCC forced the NRCC to pull out all the stops and spend a large fortune for Bilbray but given the dam that might have burst had Busby won it was worth every GOP penny for them 10 Run off and Primary elections editThe June 6 2006 run off was held at the same time as the primary election for the biennial November 7 2006 general election This created a peculiar opportunity for voters to vote on the same ballot for two different people for the same post one to immediately fill the vacant seat the other to run in the November election Polling edit Source Date Francine Busby D Brian Bilbray R Other None Undecided Margin of ErrorSurvey USA May 30 to June 1 2006 45 47 9 0 4 7 LRP Dem May 12 15 2006 47 40 1 12 4 9 Survey USA May 5 7 2006 45 45 9 1 4 8 Moore Rep April 29 30 2006 43 37 2 5 13 5 Results editOn April 11 Democrat Francine Busby garnered 43 63 percent of the vote 6 38 percentage points short of the majority necessary to avoid a runoff race She faced the leading vote getter from the two other parties participating Republican Brian Bilbray and Libertarian Paul King as well as independent candidate William Griffith in a June 6 runoff In the June 6 runoff Bilbray received a plurality with 78 341 votes 49 30 to become the district s congressman for the remainder of the 109th Congress until January 3 2007 For the new term beginning in 2007 the primaries were held on June 6 2006 concurrent with the special election Busby and Bilbray each captured their party s nomination as did Libertarian Paul King and Peace and Freedom candidate Miriam E Clark In the November 2006 general election Bilbray was again declared the winner Endorsements edit Francine Busby D IndividualsWesley Clark General 2004 democratic presidential candidate 11 California s 50th congressional district special primary 2006 12 Party Candidate Votes PercentageDemocratic Francine Busby 60 010 43 63Republican Brian Bilbray 20 952 15 23Republican Eric Roach 19 891 14 46Republican Howard Kaloogian 10 207 7 42Republican Bill Morrow 7 369 5 36Republican Alan Uke 5 477 3 98Republican Richard Earnest 2 957 2 15Republican Bill Hauf 2 207 1 60Republican Scott Turner 2 041 1 48Democratic Chris Young 1 808 1 31Independent William Griffith 1 111 0 81Republican Victor Ramirez 912 0 66Libertarian Paul King 819 0 60Republican Jeff Newsome 574 0 42Republican Scott Orren 345 0 25Republican Delecia Holt 261 0 19Republican Bill Boyer 204 0 15Republican Milton Gale 58 0 04Invalid ballots 326 0 24Totals 137 529 100 00Voter turnout 38 86California s 50th congressional district special election 2006 13 Party Candidate Votes PercentageRepublican Brian Bilbray 78 341 49 57Democratic Francine Busby 71 146 45 02Independent William Griffith write in 6 027 3 81Libertarian Paul King 2 519 1 59Independent Paul Martens write in 0 0 00Invalid ballots 882 0 56Totals 158 915 100 00Voter turnout 44 71See also editList of special elections to the United States House of RepresentativesReferences edit Washington Whispers GOP Fears in a Bellwether Race U S News amp World Report June 5 2006 Perry Tony May 30 2006 Key Race Is Seen as a Test of GOP s Vulnerability Los Angeles Times Campaign Spin on Special Election Begins The Hill June 8 2006 Archived from the original on June 14 2006 McCain Pulls out of Bilbray Fundraiser San Diego Union Tribune May 31 2006 Dodge Dani June 3 2006 Busby on defense says she misspoke San Diego Union Tribune SignOnSanDiego com gt News gt Politics Busby on defense says she misspoke Moore Greg July 14 2006 DNC Voting Rights Institute on CA 50 Special Election Democratic National Committee Archived from the original on March 3 2007 Retrieved April 3 2007 Congressional Election Nullified Nobody Noticed Scoop news website August 25 2006 LaVelle Philip J August 30 2006 Judge throws out suit seeking to void election of Rep Bilbray San Diego Union Tribune Sabato Larry June 15 2006 Election Exceptions Which 2006 contests will frustrate the national trend University of Virginia Center for Politics Archived from the original on June 17 2006 Francine Busby CA 50 WesPAC Archived from the original on May 26 2006 Special Primary Election April 11 2006 Secretary of State of California April 21 2006 Archived from the original on April 24 2008 Retrieved April 26 2008 2006 special election resultsExternal links editNew York Times article on the results Retrieved from https en wikipedia org w index php title 2006 California 27s 50th congressional district special election amp oldid 1147919731, wikipedia, wiki, book, books, library,

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