The Seneca effect, or Seneca cliff or Seneca collapse, is a mathematical model proposed by Ugo Bardi to describe situations where a system's rate of decline is much sharper than its earlier rate of growth.
In 2017, Bardi published a book titled The Seneca Effect: When Growth is Slow but Collapse is Rapid, named as the Roman philosopher and writer Seneca, who wrote Fortune is of sluggish growth, but ruin is rapid (Letters to Lucilius, 91.6):[1]
Whatever structure has been reared by a long sequence of years, at the cost of great toil and through the great kindness of the gods, is scattered and dispersed by a single day. Nay, he who has said "a day" has granted too long a postponement to swift-coming misfortune; an hour, an instant of time, suffices for the overthrow of empires! It would be some consolation for the feebleness of our selves and our works, if all things should perish as slowly as they come into being; but as it is, increases are of sluggish growth, but the way to ruin is rapid.
— Lucius Annaeus Seneca, Letters to Lucilius, 91.6
Bardi's book looked at cases of rapid decline across societies (including the fall of empires, financial crises, and major famines), in nature (including avalanches), and through man-made systems (including cracks in metal objects). Bardi concluded that rapid collapse is not a flaw, or "bug" as he terms it, but a "varied and ubiquitous phenomena" with multiple causes and resultant pathways. The collapse of a system can often clear the path for new, and better adapted, structures.[2] In a 2019 book titled Before the Collapse: A Guide to the Other Side of Growth, Bardi describes a "Seneca Rebound" that often takes place where new systems replace the collapsed system, and often at a rate faster than preceding growth rates as the collapse has eliminated many of impediments or constraints from the previous system.[2]
One of the model's main practical applications has been to describe the resultant outcomes given the condition of a global shortage of fossil fuels.[1] Unlike the symmetrical Hubbert curve fossil fuel model, the Seneca cliff model shows material asymmetry, where the global rate of decline in fossil fuel production is far steeper than forecasted by the Hubbert curve.[4]
The term has also been used to describe rapid declines in businesses that had grown for decades, with the rapid post-2005 decline and resultant bankruptcy in Kodak as an quoted example.[5]
^ abc"The Seneca Effect". Business Insider. 3 August 2011. Retrieved 20 January 2011.
^ abAhmed, Nafeez (22 November 2019). "The Collapse of Civilization May Have Already Begun". Vice. Retrieved 20 January 2022.
^Turner, Graham. Is Global Collapse Imminent?. University of Melbourne, Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, 2014.
^Heinrich, Torsten. "Resource Depletion, Growth, Collapse, and the Measurement of Capital." (2014).
^Reeves, Martin; Fæste, Lars (3 October 018). "Business transformations: Why pre-emption is better than cure". Management Today. Retrieved 20 January 2022. {{cite magazine}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
Bardi, Ugo (2018). The Seneca Effect: Why Growth is Slow But Collapse is Rapid (2 ed.). Springer. ISBN978-3319861036.
Bardi, Ugo (2014). Extracted: How the quest for mineral wealth is plundering the planet. Chelsea Green Publishing. ISBN978-1603585415.
Bardi, Ugo (2005). The mineral economy: a model for the shape of oil production curves(PDF). Energy Policy 33.1. pp. 53–61.
Orlov, Dmitry (2013). The Five Stages of Collapse: Survivors' Toolkit. New Society Publishers. ISBN9780865717367.
Jackson, Tim and Robin Webster. "Limits to Growth revisited." Reframing Global Social Policy: Social Investment for Sustainable and Inclusive Growth (2017): 295.
Novak, Peter. "Sustainable energy system with zero emissions of GHG for cities and countries."[dead link] Energy and Buildings 98 (2015): 27-33.
Illig, Aude, and Ian Schindler. "Oil Extraction, Economic Growth, and Oil Price Dynamics." BioPhysical Economics and Resource Quality 2.1 (2017): 1.
External linksEdit
Ugo Bardi (28 August 2011). "Cassandra Legacy Blog, The Seneca effect: why decline is faster than growth".
seneca, effect, seneca, cliff, seneca, collapse, mathematical, model, proposed, bardi, describe, situations, where, system, rate, decline, much, sharper, than, earlier, rate, growth, contents, description, also, references, further, reading, external, linksdes. The Seneca effect or Seneca cliff or Seneca collapse is a mathematical model proposed by Ugo Bardi to describe situations where a system s rate of decline is much sharper than its earlier rate of growth Contents 1 Description 2 Use 3 See also 4 References 4 1 Further reading 5 External linksDescription EditIn 2017 Bardi published a book titled The Seneca Effect When Growth is Slow but Collapse is Rapid named as the Roman philosopher and writer Seneca who wrote Fortune is of sluggish growth but ruin is rapid Letters to Lucilius 91 6 1 Whatever structure has been reared by a long sequence of years at the cost of great toil and through the great kindness of the gods is scattered and dispersed by a single day Nay he who has said a day has granted too long a postponement to swift coming misfortune an hour an instant of time suffices for the overthrow of empires It would be some consolation for the feebleness of our selves and our works if all things should perish as slowly as they come into being but as it is increases are of sluggish growth but the way to ruin is rapid Lucius Annaeus Seneca Letters to Lucilius 91 6 Bardi s book looked at cases of rapid decline across societies including the fall of empires financial crises and major famines in nature including avalanches and through man made systems including cracks in metal objects Bardi concluded that rapid collapse is not a flaw or bug as he terms it but a varied and ubiquitous phenomena with multiple causes and resultant pathways The collapse of a system can often clear the path for new and better adapted structures 2 In a 2019 book titled Before the Collapse A Guide to the Other Side of Growth Bardi describes a Seneca Rebound that often takes place where new systems replace the collapsed system and often at a rate faster than preceding growth rates as the collapse has eliminated many of impediments or constraints from the previous system 2 The Seneca effect model is related to the World3 model from the 1972 report The Limits to Growth issued by the Club of Rome 1 3 Use EditOne of the model s main practical applications has been to describe the resultant outcomes given the condition of a global shortage of fossil fuels 1 Unlike the symmetrical Hubbert curve fossil fuel model the Seneca cliff model shows material asymmetry where the global rate of decline in fossil fuel production is far steeper than forecasted by the Hubbert curve 4 The term has also been used to describe rapid declines in businesses that had grown for decades with the rapid post 2005 decline and resultant bankruptcy in Kodak as an quoted example 5 See also EditHubbert curve Societal collapse Joseph TainterReferences Edit a b c The Seneca Effect Business Insider 3 August 2011 Retrieved 20 January 2011 a b Ahmed Nafeez 22 November 2019 The Collapse of Civilization May Have Already Begun Vice Retrieved 20 January 2022 Turner Graham Is Global Collapse Imminent University of Melbourne Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute 2014 Heinrich Torsten Resource Depletion Growth Collapse and the Measurement of Capital 2014 Reeves Martin Faeste Lars 3 October 018 Business transformations Why pre emption is better than cure Management Today Retrieved 20 January 2022 a href Template Cite magazine html title Template Cite magazine cite magazine a Check date values in date help https books google ca books about The Seneca Effect html id F14yDwAAQBAJ amp printsec frontcover amp source kp read button amp redir esc y Further reading Edit Bardi Ugo 2018 The Seneca Effect Why Growth is Slow But Collapse is Rapid 2 ed Springer ISBN 978 3319861036 Bardi Ugo 2014 Extracted How the quest for mineral wealth is plundering the planet Chelsea Green Publishing ISBN 978 1603585415 Bardi Ugo 2005 The mineral economy a model for the shape of oil production curves PDF Energy Policy 33 1 pp 53 61 Orlov Dmitry 2013 The Five Stages of Collapse Survivors Toolkit New Society Publishers ISBN 9780865717367 Jackson Tim and Robin Webster Limits to Growth revisited Reframing Global Social Policy Social Investment for Sustainable and Inclusive Growth 2017 295 Novak Peter Sustainable energy system with zero emissions of GHG for cities and countries dead link Energy and Buildings 98 2015 27 33 Illig Aude and Ian Schindler Oil Extraction Economic Growth and Oil Price Dynamics BioPhysical Economics and Resource Quality 2 1 2017 1 External links EditUgo Bardi 28 August 2011 Cassandra Legacy Blog The Seneca effect why decline is faster than growth This applied mathematics related article is a stub You can help Wikipedia by expanding it vte Retrieved from https en wikipedia org w index php title Seneca effect amp oldid 1145562214, wikipedia, wiki, book, books, library,
