Wikipedia
Opinion polling for the 2017 Iranian presidential election
This page lists public opinion polls in connection with the 2017 Iranian presidential election, which were held on 19 May 2017, with a run-off the week after if no candidate secures an absolute majority of the vote in the first round.
Polls edit
2017 edit
| Fieldwork date | Poll source | Sample size | Margin of error | Undecided | Won't say | Others | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rouhani | Raisi | Ghalibaf | Mir-Salim | Jahangiri | Hashemitaba | |||||||
| 17 May 2017 | iPPO[1] | 1,203 | [±2.83,±4.06] | 35.9% | 18% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0% | 16.4% | 20% | 7% |
| 16 May: Jahangiri drops out in favor of Rouhani | ||||||||||||
| 16 May 2017 | IranPoll[2] | 1,007 | ±3.09% | 60.4% | 39.6% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 58% | 36.4% | — | <2% | <2% | <2% | — | — | — | ||||
| 15–16 May 2017 | iPPO[3] | 1,194 | [±2.83,±3.89] | 30% | 13% | 5% | 1% | <1% | 1% | 24% | 22% | 10% |
| 15 May: Ghalibaf drops out in favor of Raisi | ||||||||||||
| 13–15 May 2017 | iPPO[4] | 1,376 | [±2.64,±3.92] | 27% | 10% | 8% | 1% | 1% | <1% | 24% | 22% | 4% |
| 11–14 May 2017 | iPPO[5] | 1,122 | [±2.93,±4.30] | 28% | 12% | 9% | 1% | 1% | <1% | 24% | 22% | 4% |
| 10–13 May 2017 | iPPO[6] | 1,012 | [±3.08,±4.73] | 29.1% | 10.7% | 12% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 25.5% | 13.1% | 8.7% |
| 9–12 May 2017 | iPPO[7] | 1,199 | [±2.83,±3.75] | 30% | 11% | 12% | 1% | <1% | <1% | 25% | 11% | 9% |
| 8–11 May 2017 | iPPO[8] | 1,212 | [±2.81,±3.74] | 29% | 11% | 12% | <1% | 1% | <1% | 28% | 10% | 10% |
| 7–10 May 2017 | iPPO[9] | 1,189 | [±2.82,±3.75] | 28% | 10% | 10% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 30% | 8% | 14% |
| 6–9 May 2017 | iPPO[10] | 1,189 | [±2.84,±3.82] | 23% | 9% | 11% | 1% | <1% | <1% | 33% | 10% | 14% |
| 5–8 May 2017 | iPPO[11] | 1,076 | [±2.99,±3.91] | 24.4% | 6.9% | 10.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 35.6% | 9.7% | 11.6% |
| 4–7 May 2017 | iPPO[12] | 1,000 | [±3.10,±3.90] | 24.5% | 4.6% | 10.5% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 36.3% | 9.3% | 12.3% |
| 4–7 May 2017 | iPPO[13] | 947 | [±3.18,±3.90] | 26% | 5.5% | 11.8% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 38.9% | 10.3% | 5.1% |
Iran-based pollsters edit
According to the Al-Monitor, "it’s not unusual in Iran for news outlets to publish reports of nonscientific surveys. Without further details, such polls shouldn’t be considered reliable if they lack the disclosure of basic methodological information".[14] A persistent problem in Iranian pollsters, they also do not report the standard disclosure items for legitimate surveys including sample size or margin of error.[15]
| Fieldwork date | Poll source | No answer | None of them | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rouhani | Ghalibaf | Raisi | Jahangiri | Mir-Salim | Hashemitaba | ||||
| 15 May 2017 | APCAF Porsesh[16] | 55.47% | — | 28.46% | 3.66% | 2.18% | 1.41% | 6.26% | — |
| 13 May 2017 | ISPA[17] | 47.2% | 19.5% | 25.2% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.4% | — | — |
| 43.2% | 21.7% | 24.7% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.7% | — | — | ||
| 49.9% | — | 41.3% | — | — | — | 2.3% | 4.8% | ||
| 7–8 May 2017 | ISPA[18] | 41.6% | 24.6% | 26.7% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 1.2% | — | — |
| 47.7% | — | 38.7% | — | — | — | — | — | ||
| 44.8% | 44.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||
| 23–24 April 2017 | ISPA[18] | 43.5% | 22.6% | 17.4% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 8.1% | — |
| 52.9% | — | 32.4% | — | — | — | 3.5% | 11.2% | ||
| 49% | 37.7% | — | — | — | — | 3.7% | 9.6% | ||
| Before 24 April 2017 | IRIB[19] | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | — | — | — | — | — |
| 43.3% | — | 27% | — | — | — | — | — | ||
| 40.9% | 34.6% | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||
| — | 36.5% | 27% | — | — | — | — | — |
Pre-2017 polls edit
| Fieldwork date | Poll source | Sample size | Margin of error | Other | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rouhani | Ahmadinejad | Ghalibaf | Jalili | |||||
| 10–24 December 2016 | CISSM, IranPoll[20] | 1,000 | ±3.2 | 48.5% | — | 31.8% | — | 10.7% other names or none, 9% Don't know or N/A |
| 47.2% | — | 25.1% | 11.3% | 6.7% other names or none, 9.7% Don't know or N/A | ||||
| 57.3% | — | — | 21.8% | 8.6% other names or none, 12.3% Don't know or N/A | ||||
| Late October 2016 | "An academic institute in Iran"[21] | Undisclosed | ±3.2 | 64% | — | — | 19% | — |
| 53% | — | 32% | — | — | ||||
| 17–27 June 2016 | CISSM, IranPoll[22] | 1,007 | ±3.2 | 53.6% | — | 30.1% | — | 6.6% other names or none, 9.7% Don't know or N/A |
| 40.6% | 31% | 15.3% | — | 6% other names or none, 7.1% Don't know or N/A | ||||
| 45% | 36.7% | — | — | 9.5% other names or none, 8.7% Don't know or N/A | ||||
| 11–24 March 2016 | iPOS[23] | 1,077 | ±3 | 41% | 29% | — | — | 15% other names or N/A, 15% Don't know |
| 12–28 May 2015 | UTCPOR, CISSM, IranPoll[24] | 1,009 | ±3.2 | 24.6% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 0.4% | 15.5% other names, 46% Don't know |
| 53.4% | 26.6% | — | — | 11.3% other names, 8.7% Don't know | ||||
| 14–15 February 2015 | iPOS[25][26] | 735 | ±3.6 | 28% | 24% | — | — | 23% other names or N/A, 25% Undecided |
| 27% | 21% | 9% | 4% | 37% other names |
Approval ratings edit
2017 edit
| Poll source | Sample size | Fieldwork date | Margin of error | Approval ratings |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IranPoll[27] | 1,005 | 14 April | ±3.09% | 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Rouhani Ahmadinejad Ghalibaf Raisi Baghaei Jahangiri
|
Turnout edit
| Poll source | Sample size | Fieldwork date | Margin of error | Very likely | Somewhat likely | Not very likely | Not likely at all | Don't know |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| iPPO[13] | 947 | 4–7 May 2017 | [±3.18,±3.90] | 71.6% | 16.1% | 4.9% | ||
| IRIB[citation needed] | 38,000 | 30 April–2 May 2017 | — | 63.5% | 7.1% | 1.2% | 23.6% | 4.6% |
| ISPA[28] | 4,500 | 23–24 April 2017 | — | 48% | 22% | 7% | 10% | 12% |
| ISPA[29] | 900 Tehran only | 5–6 March 2017 | — | 41.9% | 18.8% | 11% | 16% | 12% |
| CISSM, IranPoll[20] | 1,000 | 10–24 December 2016 | ±3.2 | 66.6% | 15.8% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 1.3% |
| CISSM, IranPoll[22] | 1,007 | 17–27 June 2016 | ±3.2 | 65.8% | 15.3% | 10.6% | 7.1% | 1.1% |
References edit
- ^ "Poll Results of 17 May", International Perspectives for Public Opinion (iPPO), 18 May 2017, retrieved 18 May 2017
- ^ "Iranian Presidential Election 2017: Post-election Analysis of Polling Accuracy (May 2017)" (PDF), IranPoll, May 2017, retrieved 25 May 2017
- ^ "Poll Results of 16 May", International Perspectives for Public Opinion (iPPO), 17 May 2017, retrieved 17 May 2017
- ^ "Poll Results of 15 May", International Perspectives for Public Opinion (iPPO), 16 May 2017, retrieved 17 May 2017
- ^ "Poll Results of 14 May" (PDF), International Perspectives for Public Opinion (iPPO) (in Persian), 15 May 2017, retrieved 15 May 2017
- ^ "Poll Results of 13 May" (PDF), International Perspectives for Public Opinion (iPPO) (in Persian), 14 May 2017, retrieved 14 May 2017
- ^ "Poll Results of 12 May" (PDF), International Perspectives for Public Opinion (iPPO) (in Persian), 13 May 2017, retrieved 13 May 2017[permanent dead link]
- ^ "Poll Results of 11 May" (PDF), International Perspectives for Public Opinion (iPPO) (in Persian), 12 May 2017, retrieved 12 May 2017
- ^ "Poll Results of 10 May" (PDF), International Perspectives for Public Opinion (iPPO) (in Persian), 11 May 2017, retrieved 11 May 2017
- ^ "Poll Results of 9 May" (PDF), International Perspectives for Public Opinion (iPPO) (in Persian), 10 May 2017, retrieved 10 May 2017
- ^ "Poll Results of 8 May" (PDF), International Perspectives for Public Opinion (iPPO) (in Persian), 9 May 2017, retrieved 10 May 2017
- ^ "Poll Results of 6 May" (PDF), International Perspectives for Public Opinion (iPPO) (in Persian), 8 May 2017, retrieved 8 May 2017
- ^ a b "Poll Results of 7 May", International Perspectives for Public Opinion (iPPO), 8 May 2017, retrieved 8 May 2017
- ^ Matt Dabrowski (25 April 2017). "Iran polling: Will vote see Rouhani-Ghalibaf rematch?". Al-Monitor. Retrieved 25 April 2017.
- ^ Matt Dabrowski (12 May 2017). "Polls put Rouhani in lead with one week to go". Al-Monitor. Retrieved 12 May 2017.
- ^ . Shargh (in Persian). No. 2866. 17 May 2017. Archived from the original on 25 May 2017.
- ^ "Latest ISPA Poll: Rouhani Still Leading". The Iranian Students Polling Agency (ISPA) (in Persian). 16 May 2017. Retrieved 17 May 2017 – via Shafaqna.
- ^ a b "The Race: Poll Results", The Iranian Students Polling Agency (ISPA), The Iranian Labour News Agency (ILNA), 18 May 2017, retrieved 22 May 2017 – via The Iran Primer
- ^ "Opinion Poll Results: Rouhani 1st, Raisi 3rd". Deutsche Welle (in Persian). 24 April 2017. Retrieved 24 April 2017. (Alef report in Persian)
- ^ a b (PDF). Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM) & IranPoll.com. January 2017. Archived from the original (PDF) on 9 April 2017. Retrieved 4 April 2017.
- ^ "Recent Poll: Decrease in Rouhani's Popularity, Zarif Ahead". Alef. 29 November 2016. Retrieved 4 April 2017 – via Arabian Gulf Center for Iranian studies. (Original Source in Persian)
- ^ a b (PDF). Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM) & IranPoll.com. July 2016. Archived from the original (PDF) on 9 April 2017. Retrieved 4 April 2017.
- ^ "2017 Presidential Elections: Rouhani 41%, Ahmadinejad 29%". Information and Public Opinion Solutions LLC (iPOS). 25 May 2016. Retrieved 25 May 2016.
- ^ "Iranian Public Opinion on the Nuclear Negotiations" (PDF). University of Tehran Center for Public Opinion Research (UTCPOR), the Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM), and IranPoll.com. June 2015. Retrieved 24 March 2017.
- ^ "Ahmadinejad Upsets Rohani's Path to Re-election in 2017". Information and Public Opinion Solutions LLC (iPOS). 4 March 2015. Retrieved 26 December 2015.
- ^ "2017: Ahmadinejad or Rohani". Information and Public Opinion Solutions LLC (iPOS). 4 March 2015. Retrieved 26 December 2015.
- ^ "Iranian Presidential Election 2017 Pre-election National Opinion Polls (April 2017)" (PDF). IranPoll.com. April 2017. Retrieved 18 April 2017.
- ^ "58% of Iranian People Willing to Vote in the Twelfth Presidential Election" (in Persian). Iranian Students' Polling Agency (ISPA). 1 May 2017. Retrieved 27 April 2017.
- ^ "Mistrust to Electronic Voting: ISPA Survey Results Shows" (in Persian). Iranian Students' Polling Agency (ISPA). 25 March 2017. Retrieved 13 March 2017.