Next United Kingdom general election in Wales

The next United Kingdom general election is scheduled to be held no later than 28 January 2025. 40 seats will be up for election in Wales if the general election occurs before the ongoing boundary reviews take effect, and 32 seats will be up for election otherwise.

Next United Kingdom general election in Wales

← 2019 No later than 28 January 2025 Next →
← outgoing members
All 40 Welsh seats to the House of Commons
First party Second party Third party   Leader Keir Starmer Rishi Sunak Rhun ap Iorwerth Party Labour Conservative Plaid Cymru Leader since 4 April 2020 24 October 2022 16 June 2023 Last election 22 seats, 40.9% 14 seats, 36.1% 4 seats, 9.9% Seats before 21 13 3

Election

Date

The Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022 repealed the Fixed-term Parliament Act 2011 meaning that the latest date that a new election could be called is before 17 December 2024, with election day no later than 28 January 2025.^[1] The UK prime minister is also now able to call a general election.^[2]

Number of Welsh MPs

A reduction in the number of Welsh MPs was proposed for the next UK general election. Under the initial proposals, the number of MPs elected in Wales would be reduced from 40 to 32 and new constituency boundaries were also proposed.^[3]

The revised boundary plans were published on 19 October 2022 followed by a four-week consultation period.^[4] On 28 June 2023, the Boundary Commission for Wales published its final recommendations for the new Welsh constituencies, affirming the reduction.^[5]

Welsh MPs not seeking re-election

Members of Parliament not standing for re-election

MP	Seat	First elected	Party		Date announced
Wayne David	Caerphilly	2001		Labour	11 February 2022^[6]
Hywel Williams	Arfon	2001		Plaid Cymru	11 November 2022^[7]
David Jones	Clwyd West	2005		Conservative	20 September 2023^[8]

Opinion polling

Main article: Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election § Wales

The dates for these opinion polls range from the 2019 general election on 12 December to the present day.

Graphical summary

 

Graph of opinion polls conducted in Wales

Poll results

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Lab	Con	Plaid Cymru	Lib Dems	Reform	Green	Others	Lead
16–17 Sep 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,172	44%	22%	10%	9%	7%	6%	1%	22
1–6 Sep 2023	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,051	50%	19%	12%	5%	8%	5%	2%	31
13–14 Aug 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,068	41%	24%	13%	7%	11%	4%	0%	17
14–16 Jul 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,050	46%	24%	10%	7%	10%	3%	1%	22
17–18 Jun 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,000	43%	22%	10%	7%	12%	4%	1%	21
12–17 May 2023	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,064	49%	19%	10%	8%	9%	4%	1%	30
14–15 May 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,058	43%	23%	11%	8%	9%	4%	1%	20
15–17 Apr 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,251	44%	24%	12%	7%	9%	4%	0%	20
17–23 Feb 2023	YouGov	WalesOnline	1,083	53%	19%	12%	4%	8%	3%	1%	34
3–7 Feb 2023	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,081	49%	20%	14%	5%	9%	3%	1%	29
25 Nov – 1 Dec 2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,042	51%	18%	13%	4%	8%	4%	2%	33
30 Sep – 4 Oct 2022	Survation	38 Degrees	6,012	51%	24%	13%	6%	–	–	6%	27
20–22 Sep 2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,014	46%	23%	15%	5%	5%	3%	3%	23
12–16 Jun 2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,020	41%	26%	16%	7%	4%	4%	2%	15
5 May 2022	Local elections held in Wales^[9]
25 Feb – 1 Mar 2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,086	41%	26%	13%	7%	6%	4%	3%	15
13–16 Dec 2021	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,009	41%	26%	13%	3%	7%	6%	3%	15
27 Sep – 1 Oct 2021	YouGov	?	?	39%	29%	17%	3%	5%	–	7%	10
13–16 Sep 2021	YouGov	ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University	1,071	37%	31%	15%	4%	6%	5%	2%	6
6 May 2021	Election to the Senedd^[10]
2–4 May 2021	YouGov	ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University	1,071	37%	36%	14%	3%	4%	3%	3%	1
18–21 Apr 2021	YouGov	ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University	1,142	37%	33%	18%	2%	3%	4%	3%	4
9–19 Apr 2021	Opinium	Sky News	2,005	42%	33%	14%	3%	–	3%	5% UKIP on 3% Other on 2%	9
16–19 Mar 2021	YouGov 23 March 2021 at the Wayback Machine	ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University	1,174	35%	35%	17%	4%	2%	3%	3%	Tie
24 Jan 2021	Andrew RT Davies becomes leader of the Welsh Conservatives^[11]
11–14 Jan 2021	YouGov 19 January 2021 at the Wayback Machine	ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University	1,018	36%	33%	17%	3%	5%	4%	2%	3
26–30 Oct 2020	YouGov 3 November 2020 at the Wayback Machine	ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University	1,013	43%	32%	13%	3%	5%	3%	2%	11
28 Aug – 4 Sep 2020	YouGov	ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University	1,110	41%	33%	15%	2%	4%	3%	2%	8
29 May – 1 Jun 2020	YouGov	ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University	1,021	39%	35%	15%	5%	2%	3%	1%	4
3–7 Apr 2020	YouGov	ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University	1,008	34%	46%	11%	4%	3%	2%	0%	12
20–26 Jan 2020	YouGov	ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University	1,037	36%	41%	13%	5%	3%	2%	1%	5
12 Dec 2019	2019 general election		–	40.9%	36.1%	9.9%	6.0%	5.4%	1.0%	0.7%	4.8

Seat projections

Dates conducted	Pollster	Sample size	Lab	Con	Plaid Cymru	Lib Dems	Notes
20 Oct 2022	People Polling	1,237	35	0	4	1	Assumes 40 Welsh seats. Seats will be reduced to 32.
12 Dec 2019	2019 general election	–	22	14	4	0

See also

• Next Senedd election
• Next United Kingdom general election
• Next United Kingdom general election in Scotland

Notes

References

1. "When Is The Next UK General Election?". Politics.co.uk. Retrieved 18 April 2023.
2. "The intention behind the repeal of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act is to strengthen the executive and the Conservative Party". British Politics and Policy at LSE. 29 March 2022. Retrieved 20 October 2022.
3. Hayward, Will (19 October 2022). "New plans to cut the number of Welsh MPs and create new constituencies". WalesOnline. Retrieved 20 October 2022.
4. Masters, Adrian (19 October 2022). "Number of Welsh MPs to be cut from 40 to 32 under new proposals". ITV News. Retrieved 20 October 2022.
5. "Wales' new parliamentary constituencies published". Boundary Commission for Wales. 28 June 2023. Retrieved 30 June 2023.
6. "Caerphilly Labour MP Wayne David to retire at next election". BBC News. 11 February 2022.
7. "Hywel Williams: Plaid Cymru Arfon MP to stand down at next election". BBC News. 11 November 2022. Retrieved 11 November 2022.
8. "David Jones: Former Welsh secretary to retire at next election". BBC News. 20 September 2023.
9. "Wales Local Elections 2022". BBC News. 6 May 2022. Retrieved 22 February 2023.
10. "Welsh Parliament election 2021". BBC News. from the original on 9 October 2021. Retrieved 15 May 2021.
11. "Andrew RT Davies returns as Welsh Conservatives leader". BBC News. 24 January 2021. from the original on 22 May 2021. Retrieved 15 May 2021.