44th Quebec general election

The 44th Quebec general election is scheduled to take place on or before October 5, 2026, to elect the members of the National Assembly of Quebec. Under the province's fixed election date law, passed in 2013, "the general election following the end of a Legislature shall be held on the first Monday of October of the fourth calendar year following the year that includes the last day of the previous Legislature",^[3] setting the date for October 5, 2026. However, the act does not fetter the discretion of the Lieutenant Governor of Quebec to dissolve the legislature before that time, in accordance with the usual conventions of the Westminster parliamentary system.

44th Quebec general election

← 2022 On or before October 5, 2026 (2026-10-05)
← outgoing members
125 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec 63 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
QLP Leader François Legault Marc Tanguay (interim) Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois^[a] Party Coalition Avenir Québec Liberal Québec solidaire Leader since November 4, 2011 November 10, 2022^[b] May 21, 2017 Leader's seat L'Assomption LaFontaine Gouin Last election 90 seats, 40.98% 21 seats, 14.37% 11 seats, 15.43% Current seats 89 19 12 Seats needed 44 51   Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon Éric Duhaime Party Parti Québécois Conservative Leader since October 9, 2020 April 17, 2021 Leader's seat Camille-Laurin None Last election 3 seats, 14.61% 0 seats, 12.91% Current seats 4 0 Seats needed 59 63
Incumbent Premier François Legault Coalition Avenir Québec

Background

In the 2022 general election, the Coalition Avenir Québec increased its parliamentary majority, winning 90 seats. The Liberals, despite finishing fourth in the popular vote behind Québec solidaire and the Parti Québécois, remained the official opposition winning 21 seats.^[4] The Parti Québecois lost most of its remaining seats but managed to elect its previously seatless leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon to a seat.^[5] The Conservatives increased their share of the vote to 13%; however, as their support was more spread out throughout Quebec, they did not gain any seats.^[6]

Timeline

2022

• October 3: The Coalition Avenir Québec led by François Legault wins a second majority government in the 43rd Quebec general election.
• October 27: Liberal MNA for Vaudreuil Marie Claude Nichols was expelled from caucus after declining the Transport Critic role. She will sit as an independent. ^[7]
• November 7: Dominique Anglade resigns as the leader of the Quebec Liberal Party, triggering a leadership election to determine her successor.^[8]
• November 10: LaFontaine MNA Marc Tanguay is named interim leader of the Quebec Liberal Party.^[9]
• December 1: Former Liberal leader Dominique Anglade resigns as MNA for Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne.^[8]

2023

• March 7: CAQ MNA for Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Marie-Louise Tardif temporarily quits her party after an investigation by the Sûreté du Québec over alleged threats against a former employee.^[10]
• March 13: The Saint-Henri—Sainte-Anne provincial by-election is held, with Québec solidaire's Guillaume Cliche-Rivard being elected MNA.^[11]
• March 28: Tardif rejoins the CAQ after the announcement that she won't face an accusation over her alleged threats.^[12]
• May 16: Manon Massé announced that she will not seek re-election as female spokesperson at Québec Solidaire's next convention held from November 24 to 26, 2023, in Gatineau.^[13][14]
• July 19: CAQ MNA for Jean-Talon Joëlle Boutin announced that she will resign from her seat on July 31, 2023.^[15]
• October 2: The Jean-Talon provincial by-election is held, with Parti Québécois' Pascal Paradis being elected MNA.^[16]
• October 7: Liberal MNA for Marguerite-Bourgeoys Frédéric Beauchemin is excluded from his party after he received a complaint for psychological harassment by Élyse Moisan, the president of the Liberal Party Youth Commission.^[17]
• November 26: Émilise Lessard-Therrien is elected as Québec Solidaire's female spokesperson.^[18]
• December 15: Beauchemin rejoins the Liberals after a mediation process led to the abandonment of the complaint for psychological harassment.^[19]

Opinion polls

 

Opinion Polling since 2022 election

Polling Aggregators

Polling aggregator	Date updated	Source	MoE	CAQ	QS	PQ	PLQ	PCQ	Other^[c]	Lead
338Canada	February 22, 2024	[1]	^[d]	24.4	16.3	31.5	14.6	11.4	1.8	7.1
Polling Canada	February 7, 2024	[2]	—	23.7	16.4	31.9	15.1	11.2	1.7	8.2
2022 election	October 3, 2022			41.0	15.4	14.6	14.4	12.9	1.7	25.6

Polling organisation	Last date of polling	Source	Sample size	MoE	CAQ	QS	PQ	PLQ	PCQ	Other	Lead
Leger	February 5, 2024	PDF	1,032	±3.05%	25	16	32	15	11	1	7
Pallas Data	January 24, 2024	PDF	1,175	±2.9%	21.1	17	31.7	15.4	11.5	3.2	10.6
Leger	December 4, 2023	PDF	1,040	±3.04%	25	17	31	14	11	2	6
Pallas Data	November 18, 2023	PDF	1,178	±2.86%	24.1	16.1	30.4	15.5	11.3	2.7	6.3
Leger	October 30, 2023	PDF	1,026	±3.06%	30	15	26	15	12	3	4
PQ wins the by-election in Jean-Talon on October 2, 2023.
Pallas Data	September 27, 2023	PDF	1,095	±3.0%	34.5	15.4	19	14.7	14.6	1.9	15.5
Leger	September 25, 2023	PDF	1,028	±3.06%	34	17	22	14	12	1	12
Leger	August 21, 2023	PDF	1,036	±3.0%	37	15	22	12	11	3	15
Leger	June 12, 2023	PDF	1,042	±3.0%	37	16	23	13	9	2	14
Angus Reid	June 3, 2023	PDF	506	—	33	17	22	13	12	3^[e]	11
Leger	May 1, 2023	PDF	1,201	±3.0%	36	16	22	14	10	2	14
QS wins the by-election in Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne on March 13, 2023.
Leger	February 26, 2023	PDF	1,044	±3.0%	40	17	18	14	9	2	22
Leger	December 10, 2022	PDF	1,002	±3.1%	41	14	18	14	10	3	23
Leger	November 6, 2022	PDF	1,028	±3.1%	36	19	18	14	11	3	17
2022 election	October 3, 2022		4,169,137		41.0	15.4	14.6	14.4	12.9	1.7	25.6

Notes

1. Québec solidaire designates Nadeau-Dubois and Émilise Lessard-Therrien as co-spokespeople. Nadeau-Dubois was the party's candidate for premier during the 2022 general election.^[1] The party's power is held by the general meetings of the members and a board of 16 directors; the de jure leader recognized by the Chief Electoral Officer of Quebec (DGE) is Nicolas Chatel-Launay.^[2]
2. Tanguay became interim Quebec Liberal Party leader on November 10, 2022, following the resignation of Dominique Anglade. He is expected to serve as interim leader until a new leader is elected.
3. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other parties combined.
4. ±3.8% for the Parti Québécois; ±3.4% for the Coalition Avenir Québec; ±2.6% for Québec Solidaire;±2.4% for the Conservative Party of Quebec; ±2.2% for the Quebec Liberal Party
5. Including PVQ at 2%

References

1. "Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois to take leadership role in Québec Solidaire as Manon Massé steps back". CBC News. May 16, 2021. from the original on April 21, 2022. Retrieved May 13, 2022.
2. "Party details - Québec solidaire". Élections Québec. Retrieved November 28, 2023.
3. An Act to amend the Election Act for the purpose of establishing fixed-date elections, L.Q. 2013, c. 13, s. 3
4. "Le PLQ formera l'opposition officielle". TVA Nouvelles (in French). October 3, 2022. Retrieved October 4, 2022.
5. Lachance, Nicolas (October 3, 2022). "PSPP fait son entrée à l'Assemblée nationale". TVA Nouvelles (in French). Retrieved October 4, 2022.
6. Serebrin, Jacob (October 4, 2022). "Quebec opposition parties call for electoral reform after vote, seat results". The Globe and Mail. Retrieved October 4, 2022.
7. "Marie-Claude Nichols expelled from Que. Liberal caucus, will sit as independent". Montreal. October 27, 2022. Retrieved October 28, 2022.
8. Bruemmer, René (November 7, 2022). "Yielding to critics, Anglade quits as Quebec Liberal leader and MNA". Montreal Gazette. Retrieved November 7, 2022.
9. "Quebec Liberal Party names Marc Tanguay as interim leader". CBC News. November 10, 2022. Retrieved December 6, 2022.
10. Joe Lofaro (March 7, 2023). "MNA Marie-Louise Tardif temporarily withdraws from CAQ caucus amid police investigation". CTV News. Retrieved October 22, 2023.
11. "Québec Solidaire wins Montreal's Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne byelection". CBC News. March 10, 2023. Retrieved April 12, 2023.
12. QMI Agency (March 28, 2023). "Aucune accusation contre la députée: Marie-Louise Tardif réintègre le caucus de la CAQ". Le Journal de Québec (in French). Retrieved October 22, 2023.
13. "Manon Massé quitte son rôle de co-porte-parole". La Presse (in French). May 16, 2023. Retrieved August 7, 2023.
14. Charles Lecavalier (October 13, 2023). "QS facture les médias couvrant son congrès et fait marche arrière". Le Journal de Québec (in French). Retrieved November 28, 2023.
15. "La députée caquiste Joëlle Boutin démissionne". Radio-Canada (in French). July 19, 2023. Retrieved August 7, 2023.
16. "Results and statistics".
17. "Frédéric Beauchemin exclu du caucus libéral". Radio-Canada (in French). October 7, 2023. Retrieved October 22, 2023.
18. Charles Lecavalier (November 26, 2023). "Émilise Lessard-Therrien élue co-porte-parole". La Presse (in French). Retrieved November 27, 2023.
19. Karim Ouadia (December 15, 2023). "Parti libéral du Québec : le député Frédéric Beauchemin réintègre le caucus". Radio-Canada (in French). Retrieved December 18, 2023.