Kenneth Massey is an American sports statistician known for his development of a methodology for ranking and rating sports teams in a variety of sports. His ratings have been a part of the Bowl Championship Series since the 1999 season. He is an assistant professor of mathematics at Carson–Newman University in Tennessee.[1]
Massey, unlike the developers of other sports rating systems, gives quite a lot of information on how his system works, but omits enough details to prevent someone from copying the calculations in their entirety. The Massey ratings are designed to measure past performance, not necessarily to predict future outcomes. The first challenge for any computer rating system is to account for the variability in performance. A team will not always play up to its full potential. Other random factors (officiating, bounce of the ball) may also affect the outcome of a game. The model must somehow eliminate the "noise" which obscures the true strength of a team. The second goal is to account for the differences in schedule. When there is a large disparity in schedule strength, win–loss records lose their significance. The model must evaluate games involving mismatched opponents, as well as contests between well matched teams. It is necessary to achieve a reasonable balance between rewarding teams for wins, convincing wins, and playing a tough schedule. This issue is difficult to resolve, and rating systems exist that are based on each of the extremes. The overall team rating is a merit based quantity, and is the result of applying a Bayesian win–loss correction to the power rating. Only the score, venue, and date of each game are used to calculate the Massey ratings. Stats such as rushing yards, rebounds, or field-goal percentage are not included. Nor are game conditions such as weather, crowd noise, day/night, or grass/artificial turf. Overtime games are not treated any differently. Finally, neither injuries nor psychological factors like motivation are considered.
Justificationedit
Massey's ratings are particularly relevant in the world of American college football, where, with over 100 teams in NCAA Division I competition, there is no way a team can play against more than a small fraction of its competitors. Therefore, in determining the participants in championship games and tournaments, it is necessary to distinguish between teams that have compiled impressive win–loss records against strong competition and teams that have defeated weaker opponents.
Massey's analysis is a valuable tool for leagues that need to fairly seed playoff brackets, or schedule games that will encourage competitive play and good sportsmanship. Sports rating systems are generally used by gamblers to forecast results, but Massey is not affiliated with this industry.
Massey's ratings came under some scrutiny, even from Massey himself in late 2008 for rating undefeated Utah ahead of then-consensus human poll #1 Alabama at the end of the season. In spite of the controversy, his ratings gained redemption after then-#6 Utah's 31–17 victory in the 2009 Sugar Bowl over then-#4 Alabama.[2]
Backgroundedit
Massey first got the idea to do sports ratings as an undergraduate at Bluefield College. He developed various rating models at that time, and presented his work in the form of an honors project. While doing graduate work in mathematics at Virginia Tech, Massey was invited by Roy Kramer, then commissioner of the Southeastern Conference and president of the Bowl Championship Series, to submit his ratings for inclusion in the BCS ranking formula. Massey's college football rankings were part of the BCS formula from 1999 to 2013.
Massey also consults for various amateur and professional athletic leagues.
Personal lifeedit
Massey resides in a high neighborhood of Jefferson City, TN with his wife, a native of Sibiu, Romania. They currently have three small children, a daughter Page, and sons Charles and Vlad.
Referencesedit
^. Carson-Newman University. Archived from the original on 4 March 2016. Retrieved 19 November 2014.
^Niesen, Joan (11 July 2018). "The men behind the BCS's infamous computer ratings". Sports Illustrated. Retrieved 11 November 2018.
External linksedit
Official website
"Massey Ratings (1930–1998)". from the original on 2016-03-14. Retrieved 17 May 2022.
Massey, Ken. . High School Sports. Archived from the original on 2010-01-15.
Massey, Ken (Spring 1997). "Statistical Models Applied to the Rating of Sports Teams" (PDF). Bluefield, Virginia. Retrieved 2022-05-17.
December 15, 2023
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Massey is an American sports statistician known for his development of a methodology for ranking and rating sports teams in a variety of sports His ratings have been a part of the Bowl Championship Series since the 1999 season He is an assistant professor of mathematics at Carson Newman University in Tennessee 1 Kenneth MasseyBorn 1975 12 25 December 25 1975 age 47 Danville Virginia U S Alma materBluefield College B S Virginia Tech M Sc ABD EmployerCarson Newman UniversityKnown forSports rating systems Contents 1 Methods 2 Justification 3 Background 4 Personal life 5 References 6 External linksMethods editMassey unlike the developers of other sports rating systems gives quite a lot of information on how his system works but omits enough details to prevent someone from copying the calculations in their entirety The Massey ratings are designed to measure past performance not necessarily to predict future outcomes The first challenge for any computer rating system is to account for the variability in performance A team will not always play up to its full potential Other random factors officiating bounce of the ball may also affect the outcome of a game The model must somehow eliminate the noise which obscures the true strength of a team The second goal is to account for the differences in schedule When there is a large disparity in schedule strength win loss records lose their significance The model must evaluate games involving mismatched opponents as well as contests between well matched teams It is necessary to achieve a reasonable balance between rewarding teams for wins convincing wins and playing a tough schedule This issue is difficult to resolve and rating systems exist that are based on each of the extremes The overall team rating is a merit based quantity and is the result of applying a Bayesian win loss correction to the power rating Only the score venue and date of each game are used to calculate the Massey ratings Stats such as rushing yards rebounds or field goal percentage are not included Nor are game conditions such as weather crowd noise day night or grass artificial turf Overtime games are not treated any differently Finally neither injuries nor psychological factors like motivation are considered Justification editMassey s ratings are particularly relevant in the world of American college football where with over 100 teams in NCAA Division I competition there is no way a team can play against more than a small fraction of its competitors Therefore in determining the participants in championship games and tournaments it is necessary to distinguish between teams that have compiled impressive win loss records against strong competition and teams that have defeated weaker opponents Massey s analysis is a valuable tool for leagues that need to fairly seed playoff brackets or schedule games that will encourage competitive play and good sportsmanship Sports rating systems are generally used by gamblers to forecast results but Massey is not affiliated with this industry Massey s ratings came under some scrutiny even from Massey himself in late 2008 for rating undefeated Utah ahead of then consensus human poll 1 Alabama at the end of the season In spite of the controversy his ratings gained redemption after then 6 Utah s 31 17 victory in the 2009 Sugar Bowl over then 4 Alabama 2 Background editMassey first got the idea to do sports ratings as an undergraduate at Bluefield College He developed various rating models at that time and presented his work in the form of an honors project While doing graduate work in mathematics at Virginia Tech Massey was invited by Roy Kramer then commissioner of the Southeastern Conference and president of the Bowl Championship Series to submit his ratings for inclusion in the BCS ranking formula Massey s college football rankings were part of the BCS formula from 1999 to 2013 Massey also consults for various amateur and professional athletic leagues Personal life editMassey resides in a high neighborhood of Jefferson City TN with his wife a native of Sibiu Romania They currently have three small children a daughter Page and sons Charles and Vlad References edit Directory Kenneth Massey Carson Newman University Archived from the original on 4 March 2016 Retrieved 19 November 2014 Niesen Joan 11 July 2018 The men behind the BCS s infamous computer ratings Sports Illustrated Retrieved 11 November 2018 External links editOfficial website Massey Ratings 1930 1998 Archived from the original on 2016 03 14 Retrieved 17 May 2022 Massey Ken Massey Ratings High School Sports Archived from the original on 2010 01 15 Massey Ken Spring 1997 Statistical Models Applied to the Rating of Sports Teams PDF Bluefield Virginia Retrieved 2022 05 17 Retrieved from https en wikipedia org w index php title Kenneth Massey amp oldid 1153055469, wikipedia, wiki, book, books, library,
