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Decision tree learning

Decision tree learning is a supervised learning approach used in statistics, data mining and machine learning. In this formalism, a classification or regression decision tree is used as a predictive model to draw conclusions about a set of observations.

Tree models where the target variable can take a discrete set of values are called classification trees; in these tree structures, leaves represent class labels and branches represent conjunctions of features that lead to those class labels. Decision trees where the target variable can take continuous values (typically real numbers) are called regression trees. More generally, the concept of regression tree can be extended to any kind of object equipped with pairwise dissimilarities such as categorical sequences.[1]

Decision trees are among the most popular machine learning algorithms given their intelligibility and simplicity.[2]

In decision analysis, a decision tree can be used to visually and explicitly represent decisions and decision making. In data mining, a decision tree describes data (but the resulting classification tree can be an input for decision making).

General

 
A tree showing survival of passengers on the Titanic ("sibsp" is the number of spouses or siblings aboard). The figures under the leaves show the probability of survival and the percentage of observations in the leaf. Summarizing: Your chances of survival were good if you were (i) a female or (ii) a male at most 9.5 years old with strictly fewer than 3 siblings.

Decision tree learning is a method commonly used in data mining.[3] The goal is to create a model that predicts the value of a target variable based on several input variables.

A decision tree is a simple representation for classifying examples. For this section, assume that all of the input features have finite discrete domains, and there is a single target feature called the "classification". Each element of the domain of the classification is called a class. A decision tree or a classification tree is a tree in which each internal (non-leaf) node is labeled with an input feature. The arcs coming from a node labeled with an input feature are labeled with each of the possible values of the target feature or the arc leads to a subordinate decision node on a different input feature. Each leaf of the tree is labeled with a class or a probability distribution over the classes, signifying that the data set has been classified by the tree into either a specific class, or into a particular probability distribution (which, if the decision tree is well-constructed, is skewed towards certain subsets of classes).

A tree is built by splitting the source set, constituting the root node of the tree, into subsets—which constitute the successor children. The splitting is based on a set of splitting rules based on classification features.[4] This process is repeated on each derived subset in a recursive manner called recursive partitioning. The recursion is completed when the subset at a node has all the same values of the target variable, or when splitting no longer adds value to the predictions. This process of top-down induction of decision trees (TDIDT)[5] is an example of a greedy algorithm, and it is by far the most common strategy for learning decision trees from data.[6]

In data mining, decision trees can be described also as the combination of mathematical and computational techniques to aid the description, categorization and generalization of a given set of data.

Data comes in records of the form:

 

The dependent variable,  , is the target variable that we are trying to understand, classify or generalize. The vector   is composed of the features,   etc., that are used for that task.

 
An example tree which estimates the probability of kyphosis after spinal surgery, given the age of the patient and the vertebra at which surgery was started. The same tree is shown in three different ways. Left The colored leaves show the probability of kyphosis after spinal surgery, and percentage of patients in the leaf. Middle The tree as a perspective plot. Right Aerial view of the middle plot. The probability of kyphosis after surgery is higher in the darker areas. (Note: The treatment of kyphosis has advanced considerably since this rather small set of data was collected.[citation needed])

Decision tree types

Decision trees used in data mining are of two main types:

  • Classification tree analysis is when the predicted outcome is the class (discrete) to which the data belongs.
  • Regression tree analysis is when the predicted outcome can be considered a real number (e.g. the price of a house, or a patient's length of stay in a hospital).

The term classification and regression tree (CART) analysis is an umbrella term used to refer to either of the above procedures, first introduced by Breiman et al. in 1984.[7] Trees used for regression and trees used for classification have some similarities – but also some differences, such as the procedure used to determine where to split.[7]

Some techniques, often called ensemble methods, construct more than one decision tree:

A special case of a decision tree is a decision list,[12] which is a one-sided decision tree, so that every internal node has exactly 1 leaf node and exactly 1 internal node as a child (except for the bottommost node, whose only child is a single leaf node). While less expressive, decision lists are arguably easier to understand than general decision trees due to their added sparsity[citation needed], permit non-greedy learning methods[13] and monotonic constraints to be imposed.[14]

Notable decision tree algorithms include:

  • ID3 (Iterative Dichotomiser 3)
  • C4.5 (successor of ID3)
  • CART (Classification And Regression Tree)[7]
  • Chi-square automatic interaction detection (CHAID). Performs multi-level splits when computing classification trees.[15][16][17]
  • MARS: extends decision trees to handle numerical data better.
  • Conditional Inference Trees. Statistics-based approach that uses non-parametric tests as splitting criteria, corrected for multiple testing to avoid overfitting. This approach results in unbiased predictor selection and does not require pruning.[18][19]

ID3 and CART were invented independently at around the same time (between 1970 and 1980)[citation needed], yet follow a similar approach for learning a decision tree from training tuples.

It has also been proposed to leverage concepts of fuzzy set theory for the definition of a special version of decision tree, known as Fuzzy Decision Tree (FDT).[20] In this type of fuzzy classification, generally, an input vector   is associated with multiple classes, each with a different confidence value. Boosted ensembles of FDTs have been recently investigated as well, and they have shown performances comparable to those of other very efficient fuzzy classifiers.[21]

Metrics

Algorithms for constructing decision trees usually work top-down, by choosing a variable at each step that best splits the set of items.[6] Different algorithms use different metrics for measuring "best". These generally measure the homogeneity of the target variable within the subsets. Some examples are given below. These metrics are applied to each candidate subset, and the resulting values are combined (e.g., averaged) to provide a measure of the quality of the split. Depending on the underlying metric, the performance of various heuristic algorithms for decision tree learning may vary significantly.[22]

Estimate of Positive Correctness

A simple and effective metric can be used to identify the degree to which true positives outweigh true negatives (see Confusion matrix). This metric, "Estimate of Positive Correctness" is defined below:

 

In this equation, the total false positives (FP) are subtracted from the total true positives (TP). The resulting number gives an estimate on how many positive examples the feature could correctly identify within the data, with higher numbers meaning that the feature could correctly classify more positive samples. Below is an example of how to use the metric when the full confusion matrix of a certain feature is given:

Feature A Confusion Matrix

Predicted
Class
Actual Class
Cancer Non-cancer
Cancer 8 3
Non-cancer 2 5

Here we can see that the TP value would be 8 and the FP value would be 2 (the underlined numbers in the table). When we plug these numbers in the equation we are able to calculate the estimate:  . This means that using the estimate on this feature would have it receive a score of 6.

However, it should be worth noting that this number is only an estimate. For example, if two features both had a FP value of 2 while one of the features had a higher TP value, that feature would be ranked higher than the other because the resulting estimate when using the equation would give a higher value. This could lead to some inaccuracies when using the metric if some features have more positive samples than others. To combat this, one could use a more powerful metric known as Sensitivity that takes into account the proportions of the values from the confusion matrix to give the actual true positive rate (TPR). The difference between these metrics is shown in the example below:

Feature A Confusion Matrix
Predicted
Class
Actual Class
Cancer Non-cancer
Cancer 8 3
Non-cancer 2 5
Feature B Confusion Matrix
Predicted
Class
Actual Class
Cancer Non-cancer
Cancer 6 2
Non-cancer 2 8
 

 

 

 

In this example, Feature A had an estimate of 6 and a TPR of approximately 0.73 while Feature B had an estimate of 4 and a TPR of 0.75. This shows that although the positive estimate for some feature may be higher, the more accurate TPR value for that feature may be lower when compared to other features that have a lower positive estimate. Depending on the situation and knowledge of the data and decision trees, one may opt to use the positive estimate for a quick and easy solution to their problem. On the other hand, a more experienced user would most likely prefer to use the TPR value to rank the features because it takes into account the proportions of the data and all the samples that should have been classified as positive.

Gini impurity

Gini impurity, Gini's diversity index,[23] or Gini-Simpson Index in biodiversity research, is used by the CART (classification and regression tree) algorithm for classification trees, Gini impurity (named after Italian mathematician Corrado Gini) is a measure of how often a randomly chosen element from the set would be incorrectly labeled if it was randomly labeled according to the distribution of labels in the subset. The Gini impurity can be computed by summing the probability   of an item with label   being chosen times the probability   of a mistake in categorizing that item. It reaches its minimum (zero) when all cases in the node fall into a single target category.

The Gini impurity is also an information theoretic measure and corresponds to Tsallis Entropy with deformation coefficient  , which in physics is associated with the lack of information in out-of-equilibrium, non-extensive, dissipative and quantum systems. For the limit   one recovers the usual Boltzmann-Gibbs or Shannon entropy. In this sense, the Gini impurity is nothing but a variation of the usual entropy measure for decision trees.

To compute Gini impurity for a set of items with   classes, suppose  , and let   be the fraction of items labeled with class   in the set.

 

Information gain

Used by the ID3, C4.5 and C5.0 tree-generation algorithms. Information gain is based on the concept of entropy and information content from information theory.

Entropy is defined as below

 

where   are fractions that add up to 1 and represent the percentage of each class present in the child node that results from a split in the tree.[24]

 
 

Averaging over the possible values of  ,

 
 
Where weighted sum of entropies is given by,
 

That is, the expected information gain is the mutual information, meaning that on average, the reduction in the entropy of T is the mutual information.

Information gain is used to decide which feature to split on at each step in building the tree. Simplicity is best, so we want to keep our tree small. To do so, at each step we should choose the split that results in the most consistent child nodes. A commonly used measure of consistency is called information which is measured in bits. For each node of the tree, the information value "represents the expected amount of information that would be needed to specify whether a new instance should be classified yes or no, given that the example reached that node".[24]

Consider an example data set with four attributes: outlook (sunny, overcast, rainy), temperature (hot, mild, cool), humidity (high, normal), and windy (true, false), with a binary (yes or no) target variable, play, and 14 data points. To construct a decision tree on this data, we need to compare the information gain of each of four trees, each split on one of the four features. The split with the highest information gain will be taken as the first split and the process will continue until all children nodes each have consistent data, or until the information gain is 0.

To find the information gain of the split using windy, we must first calculate the information in the data before the split. The original data contained nine yes's and five no's.

 

The split using the feature windy results in two children nodes, one for a windy value of true and one for a windy value of false. In this data set, there are six data points with a true windy value, three of which have a play (where play is the target variable) value of yes and three with a play value of no. The eight remaining data points with a windy value of false contain two no's and six yes's. The information of the windy=true node is calculated using the entropy equation above. Since there is an equal number of yes's and no's in this node, we have

 

For the node where windy=false there were eight data points, six yes's and two no's. Thus we have

 

To find the information of the split, we take the weighted average of these two numbers based on how many observations fell into which node.

 

Now we can calculate the information gain achieved by splitting on the windy feature.

 

To build the tree, the information gain of each possible first split would need to be calculated. The best first split is the one that provides the most information gain. This process is repeated for each impure node until the tree is complete. This example is adapted from the example appearing in Witten et al.[24]

Information gain is also known as Shannon index in bio diversity research.

Variance reduction

Introduced in CART,[7] variance reduction is often employed in cases where the target variable is continuous (regression tree), meaning that use of many other metrics would first require discretization before being applied. The variance reduction of a node N is defined as the total reduction of the variance of the target variable Y due to the split at this node:

 

where  ,  , and   are the set of presplit sample indices, set of sample indices for which the split test is true, and set of sample indices for which the split test is false, respectively. Each of the above summands are indeed variance estimates, though, written in a form without directly referring to the mean.

By replacing   in the formula above with the dissimilarity   between two objects   and  , the variance reduction criterion applies to any kind of object for which pairwise dissimilarities can be computed.[1]

Measure of "goodness"

Used by CART in 1984,[25] the measure of "goodness" is a function that seeks to optimize the balance of a candidate split's capacity to create pure children with its capacity to create equally-sized children. This process is repeated for each impure node until the tree is complete. The function  , where   is a candidate split at node  , is defined as below

 

where   and   are the left and right children of node   using split  , respectively;   and   are the proportions of records in   in   and  , respectively; and   and   are the proportions of class   records in   and  , respectively.

Consider an example data set with three attributes: savings(low, medium, high), assets(low, medium, high), income(numerical value), and a binary target variable credit risk(good, bad) and 8 data points.[25] The full data is presented in the table below. To start a decision tree, we will calculate the maximum value of   using each feature to find which one will split the root node. This process will continue until all children are pure or all   values are below a set threshold.

Customer Savings Assets Income ($1000s) Credit risk
1 Medium High 75 Good
2 Low Low 50 Bad
3 High Medium 25 Bad
4 Medium Medium 50 Good
5 Low Medium 100 Good
6 High High 25 Good
7 Low Low 25 Bad
8 Medium Medium 75 Good

To find   of the feature savings, we need to note the quantity of each value. The original data contained three low's, three medium's, and two high's. Out of the low's, one had a good credit risk while out of the medium's and high's, 4 had a good credit risk. Assume a candidate split   such that records with a low savings will be put in the left child and all other records will be put into the right child.

 

To build the tree, the "goodness" of all candidate splits for the root node need to be calculated. The candidate with the maximum value will split the root node, and the process will continue for each impure node until the tree is complete.

Compared to other metrics such as information gain, the measure of "goodness" will attempt to create a more balanced tree, leading to more-consistent decision time. However, it sacrifices some priority for creating pure children which can lead to additional splits that are not present with other metrics.

Uses

Advantages

Amongst other data mining methods, decision trees have various advantages:

  • Simple to understand and interpret. People are able to understand decision tree models after a brief explanation. Trees can also be displayed graphically in a way that is easy for non-experts to interpret.[26]
  • Able to handle both numerical and categorical data.[26] Other techniques are usually specialized in analyzing datasets that have only one type of variable. (For example, relation rules can be used only with nominal variables while neural networks can be used only with numerical variables or categoricals converted to 0-1 values.) Early decision trees were only capable of handling categorical variables, but more recent versions, such as C4.5, do not have this limitation.[3]
  • Requires little data preparation. Other techniques often require data normalization. Since trees can handle qualitative predictors, there is no need to create dummy variables.[26]
  • Uses a white box or open-box[3] model. If a given situation is observable in a model the explanation for the condition is easily explained by boolean logic. By contrast, in a black box model, the explanation for the results is typically difficult to understand, for example with an artificial neural network.
  • Possible to validate a model using statistical tests. That makes it possible to account for the reliability of the model.
  • Non-parametric approach that makes no assumptions of the training data or prediction residuals; e.g., no distributional, independence, or constant variance assumptions
  • Performs well with large datasets. Large amounts of data can be analyzed using standard computing resources in reasonable time.
  • Mirrors human decision making more closely than other approaches.[26] This could be useful when modeling human decisions/behavior.
  • Robust against co-linearity, particularly boosting.
  • In built feature selection. Additional irrelevant feature will be less used so that they can be removed on subsequent runs. The hierarchy of attributes in a decision tree reflects the importance of attributes.[27] It means that the features on top are the most informative.[28]
  • Decision trees can approximate any Boolean function e.g. XOR.[29]

Limitations

  • Trees can be very non-robust. A small change in the training data can result in a large change in the tree and consequently the final predictions.[26]
  • The problem of learning an optimal decision tree is known to be NP-complete under several aspects of optimality and even for simple concepts.[30][31] Consequently, practical decision-tree learning algorithms are based on heuristics such as the greedy algorithm where locally optimal decisions are made at each node. Such algorithms cannot guarantee to return the globally optimal decision tree. To reduce the greedy effect of local optimality, some methods such as the dual information distance (DID) tree were proposed.[32]
  • Decision-tree learners can create over-complex trees that do not generalize well from the training data. (This is known as overfitting.[33]) Mechanisms such as pruning are necessary to avoid this problem (with the exception of some algorithms such as the Conditional Inference approach, that does not require pruning).[18][19]
  • The average depth of the tree that is defined by the number of nodes or tests till classification is not guaranteed to be minimal or small under various splitting criteria.[34]
  • For data including categorical variables with different numbers of levels, information gain in decision trees is biased in favor of attributes with more levels.[35] To counter this problem, instead of choosing the attribute with highest information gain, one can choose the attribute with the highest information gain ratio among the attributes whose information gain is greater than the mean information gain. [36] This biases the decision tree against considering attributes with a large number of distinct values, while not giving an unfair advantage to attributes with very low information gain. Alternatively, the issue of biased predictor selection can be avoided by the Conditional Inference approach,[18] a two-stage approach,[37] or adaptive leave-one-out feature selection.[38]

Implementations

Many data mining software packages provide implementations of one or more decision tree algorithms.

Examples include

Extensions

Decision graphs

In a decision tree, all paths from the root node to the leaf node proceed by way of conjunction, or AND. In a decision graph, it is possible to use disjunctions (ORs) to join two more paths together using minimum message length (MML).[39] Decision graphs have been further extended to allow for previously unstated new attributes to be learnt dynamically and used at different places within the graph.[40] The more general coding scheme results in better predictive accuracy and log-loss probabilistic scoring.[citation needed] In general, decision graphs infer models with fewer leaves than decision trees.

Alternative search methods

Evolutionary algorithms have been used to avoid local optimal decisions and search the decision tree space with little a priori bias.[41][42]

It is also possible for a tree to be sampled using MCMC.[43]

The tree can be searched for in a bottom-up fashion.[44] Or several trees can be constructed parallelly to reduce the expected number of tests till classification.[34]

See also

References

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  44. ^ Barros, R. C.; Cerri, R.; Jaskowiak, P. A.; Carvalho, A. C. P. L. F. (2011). "A bottom-up oblique decision tree induction algorithm". Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Intelligent Systems Design and Applications (ISDA 2011). pp. 450–456. doi:10.1109/ISDA.2011.6121697. ISBN 978-1-4577-1676-8. S2CID 15574923.

Further reading

  • James, Gareth; Witten, Daniela; Hastie, Trevor; Tibshirani, Robert (2017). "Tree-Based Methods" (PDF). An Introduction to Statistical Learning: with Applications in R. New York: Springer. pp. 303–336. ISBN 978-1-4614-7137-0.

External links

  • Evolutionary Learning of Decision Trees in C++
  • A very detailed explanation of information gain as splitting criterion

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This article is about decision trees in machine learning For the use of the term in decision analysis see Decision tree Decision tree learning is a supervised learning approach used in statistics data mining and machine learning In this formalism a classification or regression decision tree is used as a predictive model to draw conclusions about a set of observations Tree models where the target variable can take a discrete set of values are called classification trees in these tree structures leaves represent class labels and branches represent conjunctions of features that lead to those class labels Decision trees where the target variable can take continuous values typically real numbers are called regression trees More generally the concept of regression tree can be extended to any kind of object equipped with pairwise dissimilarities such as categorical sequences 1 Decision trees are among the most popular machine learning algorithms given their intelligibility and simplicity 2 In decision analysis a decision tree can be used to visually and explicitly represent decisions and decision making In data mining a decision tree describes data but the resulting classification tree can be an input for decision making Contents 1 General 2 Decision tree types 3 Metrics 3 1 Estimate of Positive Correctness 3 2 Gini impurity 3 3 Information gain 3 4 Variance reduction 3 5 Measure of goodness 4 Uses 4 1 Advantages 4 2 Limitations 4 3 Implementations 5 Extensions 5 1 Decision graphs 5 2 Alternative search methods 6 See also 7 References 8 Further reading 9 External linksGeneral Edit A tree showing survival of passengers on the Titanic sibsp is the number of spouses or siblings aboard The figures under the leaves show the probability of survival and the percentage of observations in the leaf Summarizing Your chances of survival were good if you were i a female or ii a male at most 9 5 years old with strictly fewer than 3 siblings Decision tree learning is a method commonly used in data mining 3 The goal is to create a model that predicts the value of a target variable based on several input variables A decision tree is a simple representation for classifying examples For this section assume that all of the input features have finite discrete domains and there is a single target feature called the classification Each element of the domain of the classification is called a class A decision tree or a classification tree is a tree in which each internal non leaf node is labeled with an input feature The arcs coming from a node labeled with an input feature are labeled with each of the possible values of the target feature or the arc leads to a subordinate decision node on a different input feature Each leaf of the tree is labeled with a class or a probability distribution over the classes signifying that the data set has been classified by the tree into either a specific class or into a particular probability distribution which if the decision tree is well constructed is skewed towards certain subsets of classes A tree is built by splitting the source set constituting the root node of the tree into subsets which constitute the successor children The splitting is based on a set of splitting rules based on classification features 4 This process is repeated on each derived subset in a recursive manner called recursive partitioning The recursion is completed when the subset at a node has all the same values of the target variable or when splitting no longer adds value to the predictions This process of top down induction of decision trees TDIDT 5 is an example of a greedy algorithm and it is by far the most common strategy for learning decision trees from data 6 In data mining decision trees can be described also as the combination of mathematical and computational techniques to aid the description categorization and generalization of a given set of data Data comes in records of the form x Y x 1 x 2 x 3 x k Y displaystyle textbf x Y x 1 x 2 x 3 x k Y The dependent variable Y displaystyle Y is the target variable that we are trying to understand classify or generalize The vector x displaystyle textbf x is composed of the features x 1 x 2 x 3 displaystyle x 1 x 2 x 3 etc that are used for that task An example tree which estimates the probability of kyphosis after spinal surgery given the age of the patient and the vertebra at which surgery was started The same tree is shown in three different ways Left The colored leaves show the probability of kyphosis after spinal surgery and percentage of patients in the leaf Middle The tree as a perspective plot Right Aerial view of the middle plot The probability of kyphosis after surgery is higher in the darker areas Note The treatment of kyphosis has advanced considerably since this rather small set of data was collected citation needed Decision tree types EditDecision trees used in data mining are of two main types Classification tree analysis is when the predicted outcome is the class discrete to which the data belongs Regression tree analysis is when the predicted outcome can be considered a real number e g the price of a house or a patient s length of stay in a hospital The term classification and regression tree CART analysis is an umbrella term used to refer to either of the above procedures first introduced by Breiman et al in 1984 7 Trees used for regression and trees used for classification have some similarities but also some differences such as the procedure used to determine where to split 7 Some techniques often called ensemble methods construct more than one decision tree Boosted trees Incrementally building an ensemble by training each new instance to emphasize the training instances previously mis modeled A typical example is AdaBoost These can be used for regression type and classification type problems 8 9 Bootstrap aggregated or bagged decision trees an early ensemble method builds multiple decision trees by repeatedly resampling training data with replacement and voting the trees for a consensus prediction 10 A random forest classifier is a specific type of bootstrap aggregating Rotation forest in which every decision tree is trained by first applying principal component analysis PCA on a random subset of the input features 11 A special case of a decision tree is a decision list 12 which is a one sided decision tree so that every internal node has exactly 1 leaf node and exactly 1 internal node as a child except for the bottommost node whose only child is a single leaf node While less expressive decision lists are arguably easier to understand than general decision trees due to their added sparsity citation needed permit non greedy learning methods 13 and monotonic constraints to be imposed 14 Notable decision tree algorithms include ID3 Iterative Dichotomiser 3 C4 5 successor of ID3 CART Classification And Regression Tree 7 Chi square automatic interaction detection CHAID Performs multi level splits when computing classification trees 15 16 17 MARS extends decision trees to handle numerical data better Conditional Inference Trees Statistics based approach that uses non parametric tests as splitting criteria corrected for multiple testing to avoid overfitting This approach results in unbiased predictor selection and does not require pruning 18 19 ID3 and CART were invented independently at around the same time between 1970 and 1980 citation needed yet follow a similar approach for learning a decision tree from training tuples It has also been proposed to leverage concepts of fuzzy set theory for the definition of a special version of decision tree known as Fuzzy Decision Tree FDT 20 In this type of fuzzy classification generally an input vector x displaystyle textbf x is associated with multiple classes each with a different confidence value Boosted ensembles of FDTs have been recently investigated as well and they have shown performances comparable to those of other very efficient fuzzy classifiers 21 Metrics EditAlgorithms for constructing decision trees usually work top down by choosing a variable at each step that best splits the set of items 6 Different algorithms use different metrics for measuring best These generally measure the homogeneity of the target variable within the subsets Some examples are given below These metrics are applied to each candidate subset and the resulting values are combined e g averaged to provide a measure of the quality of the split Depending on the underlying metric the performance of various heuristic algorithms for decision tree learning may vary significantly 22 Estimate of Positive Correctness Edit A simple and effective metric can be used to identify the degree to which true positives outweigh true negatives see Confusion matrix This metric Estimate of Positive Correctness is defined below E P T P F P displaystyle E P TP FP In this equation the total false positives FP are subtracted from the total true positives TP The resulting number gives an estimate on how many positive examples the feature could correctly identify within the data with higher numbers meaning that the feature could correctly classify more positive samples Below is an example of how to use the metric when the full confusion matrix of a certain feature is given Feature A Confusion Matrix PredictedClassActual Class Cancer Non cancerCancer 8 3Non cancer 2 5Here we can see that the TP value would be 8 and the FP value would be 2 the underlined numbers in the table When we plug these numbers in the equation we are able to calculate the estimate E p T P F P 8 2 6 displaystyle E p TP FP 8 2 6 This means that using the estimate on this feature would have it receive a score of 6 However it should be worth noting that this number is only an estimate For example if two features both had a FP value of 2 while one of the features had a higher TP value that feature would be ranked higher than the other because the resulting estimate when using the equation would give a higher value This could lead to some inaccuracies when using the metric if some features have more positive samples than others To combat this one could use a more powerful metric known as Sensitivity that takes into account the proportions of the values from the confusion matrix to give the actual true positive rate TPR The difference between these metrics is shown in the example below Feature A Confusion Matrix PredictedClassActual Class Cancer Non cancerCancer 8 3Non cancer 2 5 Feature B Confusion Matrix PredictedClassActual Class Cancer Non cancerCancer 6 2Non cancer 2 8E p T P F P 8 2 6 displaystyle E p TP FP 8 2 6 T P R T P T P F N 8 8 3 0 73 displaystyle TPR TP TP FN 8 8 3 approx 0 73 E p T P F P 6 2 4 displaystyle E p TP FP 6 2 4 T P R T P T P F N 6 6 2 0 75 displaystyle TPR TP TP FN 6 6 2 0 75 In this example Feature A had an estimate of 6 and a TPR of approximately 0 73 while Feature B had an estimate of 4 and a TPR of 0 75 This shows that although the positive estimate for some feature may be higher the more accurate TPR value for that feature may be lower when compared to other features that have a lower positive estimate Depending on the situation and knowledge of the data and decision trees one may opt to use the positive estimate for a quick and easy solution to their problem On the other hand a more experienced user would most likely prefer to use the TPR value to rank the features because it takes into account the proportions of the data and all the samples that should have been classified as positive Gini impurity Edit Gini impurity Gini s diversity index 23 or Gini Simpson Index in biodiversity research is used by the CART classification and regression tree algorithm for classification trees Gini impurity named after Italian mathematician Corrado Gini is a measure of how often a randomly chosen element from the set would be incorrectly labeled if it was randomly labeled according to the distribution of labels in the subset The Gini impurity can be computed by summing the probability p i displaystyle p i of an item with label i displaystyle i being chosen times the probability k i p k 1 p i displaystyle sum k neq i p k 1 p i of a mistake in categorizing that item It reaches its minimum zero when all cases in the node fall into a single target category The Gini impurity is also an information theoretic measure and corresponds to Tsallis Entropy with deformation coefficient q 2 displaystyle q 2 which in physics is associated with the lack of information in out of equilibrium non extensive dissipative and quantum systems For the limit q 1 displaystyle q to 1 one recovers the usual Boltzmann Gibbs or Shannon entropy In this sense the Gini impurity is nothing but a variation of the usual entropy measure for decision trees To compute Gini impurity for a set of items with J displaystyle J classes suppose i 1 2 J displaystyle i in 1 2 J and let p i displaystyle p i be the fraction of items labeled with class i displaystyle i in the set I G p i 1 J p i k i p k i 1 J p i 1 p i i 1 J p i p i 2 i 1 J p i i 1 J p i 2 1 i 1 J p i 2 displaystyle operatorname I G p sum i 1 J left p i sum k neq i p k right sum i 1 J p i 1 p i sum i 1 J p i p i 2 sum i 1 J p i sum i 1 J p i 2 1 sum i 1 J p i 2 Information gain Edit Main article Information gain in decision trees Used by the ID3 C4 5 and C5 0 tree generation algorithms Information gain is based on the concept of entropy and information content from information theory Entropy is defined as below H T I E p 1 p 2 p J i 1 J p i log 2 p i displaystyle mathrm H T operatorname I E left p 1 p 2 ldots p J right sum i 1 J p i log 2 p i where p 1 p 2 displaystyle p 1 p 2 ldots are fractions that add up to 1 and represent the percentage of each class present in the child node that results from a split in the tree 24 I G T a information gain H T entropy parent H T a sum of entropies children displaystyle overbrace IG T a text information gain overbrace mathrm H T text entropy parent overbrace mathrm H T mid a text sum of entropies children i 1 J p i log 2 p i i 1 J Pr i a log 2 Pr i a displaystyle sum i 1 J p i log 2 p i sum i 1 J Pr i mid a log 2 Pr i mid a Averaging over the possible values of A displaystyle A E A IG T a expected information gain I T A mutual information between T and A H T entropy parent H T A weighted sum of entropies children displaystyle overbrace E A operatorname IG T a text expected information gain overbrace I T A text mutual information between T text and A overbrace mathrm H T text entropy parent overbrace mathrm H T mid A text weighted sum of entropies children i 1 J p i log 2 p i a p a i 1 J Pr i a log 2 Pr i a displaystyle sum i 1 J p i log 2 p i sum a p a sum i 1 J Pr i mid a log 2 Pr i mid a Where weighted sum of entropies is given by H T A a p a i 1 J Pr i a log 2 Pr i a displaystyle mathrm H T mid A sum a p a sum i 1 J Pr i mid a log 2 Pr i mid a That is the expected information gain is the mutual information meaning that on average the reduction in the entropy of T is the mutual information Information gain is used to decide which feature to split on at each step in building the tree Simplicity is best so we want to keep our tree small To do so at each step we should choose the split that results in the most consistent child nodes A commonly used measure of consistency is called information which is measured in bits For each node of the tree the information value represents the expected amount of information that would be needed to specify whether a new instance should be classified yes or no given that the example reached that node 24 Consider an example data set with four attributes outlook sunny overcast rainy temperature hot mild cool humidity high normal and windy true false with a binary yes or no target variable play and 14 data points To construct a decision tree on this data we need to compare the information gain of each of four trees each split on one of the four features The split with the highest information gain will be taken as the first split and the process will continue until all children nodes each have consistent data or until the information gain is 0 To find the information gain of the split using windy we must first calculate the information in the data before the split The original data contained nine yes s and five no s I E 9 5 9 14 log 2 9 14 5 14 log 2 5 14 0 94 displaystyle I E 9 5 frac 9 14 log 2 frac 9 14 frac 5 14 log 2 frac 5 14 0 94 The split using the feature windy results in two children nodes one for a windy value of true and one for a windy value of false In this data set there are six data points with a true windy value three of which have a play where play is the target variable value of yes and three with a play value of no The eight remaining data points with a windy value of false contain two no s and six yes s The information of the windy true node is calculated using the entropy equation above Since there is an equal number of yes s and no s in this node we have I E 3 3 3 6 log 2 3 6 3 6 log 2 3 6 1 2 log 2 1 2 1 2 log 2 1 2 1 displaystyle I E 3 3 frac 3 6 log 2 frac 3 6 frac 3 6 log 2 frac 3 6 frac 1 2 log 2 frac 1 2 frac 1 2 log 2 frac 1 2 1 For the node where windy false there were eight data points six yes s and two no s Thus we have I E 6 2 6 8 log 2 6 8 2 8 log 2 2 8 3 4 log 2 3 4 1 4 log 2 1 4 0 81 displaystyle I E 6 2 frac 6 8 log 2 frac 6 8 frac 2 8 log 2 frac 2 8 frac 3 4 log 2 frac 3 4 frac 1 4 log 2 frac 1 4 0 81 To find the information of the split we take the weighted average of these two numbers based on how many observations fell into which node I E 3 3 6 2 I E windy or not 6 14 1 8 14 0 81 0 89 displaystyle I E 3 3 6 2 I E text windy or not frac 6 14 cdot 1 frac 8 14 cdot 0 81 0 89 Now we can calculate the information gain achieved by splitting on the windy feature IG windy I E 9 5 I E 3 3 6 2 0 94 0 89 0 05 displaystyle operatorname IG text windy I E 9 5 I E 3 3 6 2 0 94 0 89 0 05 To build the tree the information gain of each possible first split would need to be calculated The best first split is the one that provides the most information gain This process is repeated for each impure node until the tree is complete This example is adapted from the example appearing in Witten et al 24 Information gain is also known as Shannon index in bio diversity research Variance reduction Edit Introduced in CART 7 variance reduction is often employed in cases where the target variable is continuous regression tree meaning that use of many other metrics would first require discretization before being applied The variance reduction of a node N is defined as the total reduction of the variance of the target variable Y due to the split at this node I V N 1 S 2 i S j S 1 2 y i y j 2 S t 2 S 2 1 S t 2 i S t j S t 1 2 y i y j 2 S f 2 S 2 1 S f 2 i S f j S f 1 2 y i y j 2 displaystyle I V N frac 1 S 2 sum i in S sum j in S frac 1 2 y i y j 2 left frac S t 2 S 2 frac 1 S t 2 sum i in S t sum j in S t frac 1 2 y i y j 2 frac S f 2 S 2 frac 1 S f 2 sum i in S f sum j in S f frac 1 2 y i y j 2 right where S displaystyle S S t displaystyle S t and S f displaystyle S f are the set of presplit sample indices set of sample indices for which the split test is true and set of sample indices for which the split test is false respectively Each of the above summands are indeed variance estimates though written in a form without directly referring to the mean By replacing y i y j 2 displaystyle y i y j 2 in the formula above with the dissimilarity d i j displaystyle d ij between two objects i displaystyle i and j displaystyle j the variance reduction criterion applies to any kind of object for which pairwise dissimilarities can be computed 1 Measure of goodness Edit Used by CART in 1984 25 the measure of goodness is a function that seeks to optimize the balance of a candidate split s capacity to create pure children with its capacity to create equally sized children This process is repeated for each impure node until the tree is complete The function f s t displaystyle varphi s mid t where s displaystyle s is a candidate split at node t displaystyle t is defined as below f s t 2 P L P R j 1 class count P j t L P j t R displaystyle varphi s mid t 2P L P R sum j 1 text class count P j mid t L P j mid t R where t L displaystyle t L and t R displaystyle t R are the left and right children of node t displaystyle t using split s displaystyle s respectively P L displaystyle P L and P R displaystyle P R are the proportions of records in t displaystyle t in t L displaystyle t L and t R displaystyle t R respectively and P j t L displaystyle P j mid t L and P j t R displaystyle P j mid t R are the proportions of class j displaystyle j records in t L displaystyle t L and t R displaystyle t R respectively Consider an example data set with three attributes savings low medium high assets low medium high income numerical value and a binary target variable credit risk good bad and 8 data points 25 The full data is presented in the table below To start a decision tree we will calculate the maximum value of f s t displaystyle varphi s mid t using each feature to find which one will split the root node This process will continue until all children are pure or all f s t displaystyle varphi s mid t values are below a set threshold Customer Savings Assets Income 1000s Credit risk1 Medium High 75 Good2 Low Low 50 Bad3 High Medium 25 Bad4 Medium Medium 50 Good5 Low Medium 100 Good6 High High 25 Good7 Low Low 25 Bad8 Medium Medium 75 GoodTo find f s t displaystyle varphi s mid t of the feature savings we need to note the quantity of each value The original data contained three low s three medium s and two high s Out of the low s one had a good credit risk while out of the medium s and high s 4 had a good credit risk Assume a candidate split s displaystyle s such that records with a low savings will be put in the left child and all other records will be put into the right child f s root 2 3 8 5 8 1 3 4 5 2 3 1 5 0 44 displaystyle varphi s mid text root 2 cdot frac 3 8 cdot frac 5 8 cdot left left left frac 1 3 frac 4 5 right right left left frac 2 3 frac 1 5 right right right 0 44 To build the tree the goodness of all candidate splits for the root node need to be calculated The candidate with the maximum value will split the root node and the process will continue for each impure node until the tree is complete Compared to other metrics such as information gain the measure of goodness will attempt to create a more balanced tree leading to more consistent decision time However it sacrifices some priority for creating pure children which can lead to additional splits that are not present with other metrics Uses EditAdvantages Edit Amongst other data mining methods decision trees have various advantages Simple to understand and interpret People are able to understand decision tree models after a brief explanation Trees can also be displayed graphically in a way that is easy for non experts to interpret 26 Able to handle both numerical and categorical data 26 Other techniques are usually specialized in analyzing datasets that have only one type of variable For example relation rules can be used only with nominal variables while neural networks can be used only with numerical variables or categoricals converted to 0 1 values Early decision trees were only capable of handling categorical variables but more recent versions such as C4 5 do not have this limitation 3 Requires little data preparation Other techniques often require data normalization Since trees can handle qualitative predictors there is no need to create dummy variables 26 Uses a white box or open box 3 model If a given situation is observable in a model the explanation for the condition is easily explained by boolean logic By contrast in a black box model the explanation for the results is typically difficult to understand for example with an artificial neural network Possible to validate a model using statistical tests That makes it possible to account for the reliability of the model Non parametric approach that makes no assumptions of the training data or prediction residuals e g no distributional independence or constant variance assumptions Performs well with large datasets Large amounts of data can be analyzed using standard computing resources in reasonable time Mirrors human decision making more closely than other approaches 26 This could be useful when modeling human decisions behavior Robust against co linearity particularly boosting In built feature selection Additional irrelevant feature will be less used so that they can be removed on subsequent runs The hierarchy of attributes in a decision tree reflects the importance of attributes 27 It means that the features on top are the most informative 28 Decision trees can approximate any Boolean function e g XOR 29 Limitations Edit Trees can be very non robust A small change in the training data can result in a large change in the tree and consequently the final predictions 26 The problem of learning an optimal decision tree is known to be NP complete under several aspects of optimality and even for simple concepts 30 31 Consequently practical decision tree learning algorithms are based on heuristics such as the greedy algorithm where locally optimal decisions are made at each node Such algorithms cannot guarantee to return the globally optimal decision tree To reduce the greedy effect of local optimality some methods such as the dual information distance DID tree were proposed 32 Decision tree learners can create over complex trees that do not generalize well from the training data This is known as overfitting 33 Mechanisms such as pruning are necessary to avoid this problem with the exception of some algorithms such as the Conditional Inference approach that does not require pruning 18 19 The average depth of the tree that is defined by the number of nodes or tests till classification is not guaranteed to be minimal or small under various splitting criteria 34 For data including categorical variables with different numbers of levels information gain in decision trees is biased in favor of attributes with more levels 35 To counter this problem instead of choosing the attribute with highest information gain one can choose the attribute with the highest information gain ratio among the attributes whose information gain is greater than the mean information gain 36 This biases the decision tree against considering attributes with a large number of distinct values while not giving an unfair advantage to attributes with very low information gain Alternatively the issue of biased predictor selection can be avoided by the Conditional Inference approach 18 a two stage approach 37 or adaptive leave one out feature selection 38 Implementations Edit Many data mining software packages provide implementations of one or more decision tree algorithms Examples include Salford Systems CART which licensed the proprietary code of the original CART authors 7 IBM SPSS Modeler RapidMiner SAS Enterprise Miner Matlab R an open source software environment for statistical computing which includes several CART implementations such as rpart party and randomForest packages Weka a free and open source data mining suite contains many decision tree algorithms Orange KNIME Microsoft SQL Server 1 and scikit learn a free and open source machine learning library for the Python programming language Extensions EditDecision graphs Edit In a decision tree all paths from the root node to the leaf node proceed by way of conjunction or AND In a decision graph it is possible to use disjunctions ORs to join two more paths together using minimum message length MML 39 Decision graphs have been further extended to allow for previously unstated new attributes to be learnt dynamically and used at different places within the graph 40 The more general coding scheme results in better predictive accuracy and log loss probabilistic scoring citation needed In general decision graphs infer models with fewer leaves than decision trees Alternative search methods Edit Evolutionary algorithms have been used to avoid local optimal decisions and search the decision tree space with little a priori bias 41 42 It is also possible for a tree to be sampled using MCMC 43 The tree can be searched for in a bottom up fashion 44 Or several trees can be constructed parallelly to reduce the expected number of tests till classification 34 See also EditDecision tree pruning Binary decision diagram CHAID CART ID3 algorithm C4 5 algorithm Decision stumps used in e g AdaBoosting Decision list Incremental decision tree Alternating decision tree Structured data analysis statistics Logistic model tree Hierarchical clusteringReferences Edit a b Studer Matthias Ritschard Gilbert Gabadinho Alexis Muller Nicolas S 2011 Discrepancy Analysis of State Sequences 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JPEODX 0000175 S2CID 216485629 Mehtaa Dinesh Raghavan Vijay 2002 Decision tree approximations of Boolean functions Theoretical Computer Science 270 1 2 609 623 doi 10 1016 S0304 3975 01 00011 1 Hyafil Laurent Rivest RL 1976 Constructing Optimal Binary Decision Trees is NP complete Information Processing Letters 5 1 15 17 doi 10 1016 0020 0190 76 90095 8 Murthy S 1998 Automatic construction of decision trees from data A multidisciplinary survey Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery Ben Gal I Dana A Shkolnik N and Singer 2014 Efficient Construction of Decision Trees by the Dual Information Distance Method PDF Quality Technology amp Quantitative Management 11 1 133 147 doi 10 1080 16843703 2014 11673330 S2CID 7025979 Principles of Data Mining 2007 doi 10 1007 978 1 84628 766 4 ISBN 978 1 84628 765 7 a b Ben Gal I and Trister C 2015 Parallel Construction of Decision Trees with Consistently Non Increasing Expected Number of Tests PDF Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry Vol 31 1 64 78 Deng H Runger G Tuv E 2011 Bias of importance measures for multi valued attributes and solutions Proceedings of the 21st International Conference on Artificial Neural Networks ICANN pp 293 300 Quinlan J Ross 1986 Induction of Decision Trees Machine Learning 1 1 81 106 doi 10 1007 BF00116251 Brandmaier Andreas M Oertzen Timo von McArdle John J Lindenberger Ulman 2012 Structural equation model trees Psychological Methods 18 1 71 86 doi 10 1037 a0030001 hdl 11858 00 001M 0000 0024 EA33 9 PMC 4386908 PMID 22984789 Painsky Amichai Rosset Saharon 2017 Cross Validated Variable Selection in Tree Based Methods Improves Predictive Performance IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence 39 11 2142 2153 arXiv 1512 03444 doi 10 1109 TPAMI 2016 2636831 PMID 28114007 S2CID 5381516 CiteSeerX Tan amp Dowe 2003 Papagelis A Kalles D 2001 Breeding Decision Trees Using Evolutionary Techniques PDF Proceedings of the Eighteenth International Conference on Machine Learning June 28 July 1 2001 pp 393 400 Barros Rodrigo C Basgalupp M P Carvalho A C P L F Freitas Alex A 2012 A Survey of Evolutionary Algorithms for Decision Tree Induction IEEE Transactions on Systems Man and Cybernetics Part C Applications and Reviews 42 3 291 312 CiteSeerX 10 1 1 308 9068 doi 10 1109 TSMCC 2011 2157494 S2CID 365692 Chipman Hugh A George Edward I McCulloch Robert E 1998 Bayesian CART model search Journal of the American Statistical Association 93 443 935 948 CiteSeerX 10 1 1 211 5573 doi 10 1080 01621459 1998 10473750 Barros R C Cerri R Jaskowiak P A Carvalho A C P L F 2011 A bottom up oblique decision tree induction algorithm Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Intelligent Systems Design and Applications ISDA 2011 pp 450 456 doi 10 1109 ISDA 2011 6121697 ISBN 978 1 4577 1676 8 S2CID 15574923 Further reading EditJames Gareth Witten Daniela Hastie Trevor Tibshirani Robert 2017 Tree Based Methods PDF An Introduction to Statistical Learning with Applications in R New York Springer pp 303 336 ISBN 978 1 4614 7137 0 External links EditEvolutionary Learning of Decision Trees in C A very detailed explanation of information gain as splitting criterion Retrieved from https en wikipedia org w index php title Decision tree learning amp oldid 1132951324, wikipedia, wiki, book, books, library,

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