Atheist's wager

The Atheist's wager, coined by the philosopher Michael Martin and published in his 1990 book Atheism: A Philosophical Justification, is an atheistic response to Pascal's wager regarding the existence of God.^[1]

One version of the Atheist's wager suggests that since a kind and loving god would reward good deeds – and that if no gods exist, good deeds would still leave a positive legacy – one should live a good life without religion.^[2][3] Another formulation suggests that a god may reward honest disbelief and punish a dishonest belief in the divine.^[4]

Explanation

Martin's wager states that if one were to analyze their options in regard to how to live their life, they would arrive at the following possibilities:^[2][5]

• You may live a good life and believe in a god, and a benevolent god exists, in which case you go to heaven: your gain is infinite.
• You may live a good life without believing in a god, and a benevolent god exists, in which case you go to heaven: your gain is infinite.
• You may live a good life and believe in a god, but no benevolent god exists, in which case you leave a positive legacy to the world; your gain is finite.
• You may live a good life without believing in a god, and no benevolent god exists, in which case you leave a positive legacy to the world; your gain is finite.
• You may live an evil life and believe in a god, and a benevolent god exists, in which case you go to hell: your loss is infinite.
• You may live an evil life without believing in a god, and a benevolent god exists, in which case you go to hell: your loss is infinite.
• You may live an evil life and believe in a god, but no benevolent god exists, in which case you leave a negative legacy to the world; your loss is finite.
• You may live an evil life without believing in a god, and no benevolent god exists, in which case you leave a negative legacy to the world; your loss is finite.

The following table shows the values assigned to each possible outcome:

	A benevolent god exists		No benevolent god exists
	Belief in god (B)	No belief in god (¬B)	Belief in god (B)	No belief in god (¬B)
Good life (L)	+∞ (heaven)	+∞ (heaven)	+X (positive legacy)	+X (positive legacy)
Evil life (¬L)	−∞ (hell)	−∞ (hell)	−X (negative legacy)	−X (negative legacy)

Given these values, Martin argues that the option to live a good life clearly dominates the option of living an evil life, regardless of belief in a god. Whether one believes in god has no effect on the outcome.

References

1. Oppy, Graham (2019). A Companion to Atheism and Philosophy (First ed.). Wiley. p. 221. ISBN 978-1-119-11918-0.
2. Martin, Michael (1990). Atheism: A Philosophical Justification. Temple University Press. pp. 232–238. ISBN 978-0-8772-2642-0.
3. Berry, Alvin F. (2011). So What If...the God of the Bible Exists...Does It Really Matter at the End ... Dog Ear Publishing. p. 10. ISBN 978-1-457-50020-6.
4. Stahl, Philip A. (2007). Atheism: A Beginner's Handbook: All You Wanted to Know About Atheism and Why. pp. 39–42. ISBN 978-0-5954-2737-6.
5. Martin, Michael (1983). "Pascal's Wager as an Argument for Not Believing in God". Religious Studies. 19: 57–64. doi:10.1017/S0034412500014700. S2CID 170450896.