2023 Rolling Fork–Silver City tornado

On the night of March 24, 2023, a large and destructive tornado struck the communities of Rolling Fork and Silver City, Mississippi, killing 17 people and injuring at least 165 others.^[1] The tornado was the strongest and deadliest of the tornado outbreak of March 24–27, 2023. The tornado damaged or destroyed much of Rolling Fork, with the most intense damage leading the National Weather Service to assign a rating of high-end EF4 on the Enhanced Fujita scale, with maximum windspeeds estimated at 195 mph (314 km/h).^[1]

2023 Rolling Fork–Silver City tornado

Top: NEXRAD radar loop of the EF4 tornado Bottom: A damaged SUV amid debris in Rolling Fork following the storm
Meteorological history
Duration	71 minutes
Formed	March 24, 2023, 7:57 p.m. CDT (UTC−05:00)
Dissipated	March 24, 2023, 9:08 p.m. CDT (UTC−05:00)
EF4 tornado
on the Enhanced Fujita scale
Highest winds	195 mph (314 km/h)
Overall effects
Fatalities	17
Injuries	165
Part of the Tornado outbreak of March 24–27, 2023 and Tornadoes of 2023

Meteorological synopsis

Main article: Tornado outbreak of March 24–27, 2023

 

The Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook for March 24, 2023.

On March 18, an upper-level trough situated across the Western United States.^[2] As time progressed, the trough began to move significantly to the east. This trough accompanied by abundant moisture and insatiability forecasts, led to concern over hail and wind threats across the U.S. Lack of model consensus however, led to uncertainty over how events would play out later in the week.^[3][4]

On March 22, the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued a level 3/Enhanced risk of severe weather across portions of Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi for supercell thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and strong (EF2+) tornadoes.^[5] The Enhanced risk was expanded northward the following day, and the original outlined area was upgraded to a level 4/Moderate risk.^[6]

On March 24, water vapor imagery showcased a potent mid-level trough. Strong mid-level winds between the trough and strong high-pressure area across the Southeastern United States were displaying in models as well. Meanwhile, a quickly deepening low-pressure area was expected to drag a warm front northward, leading to a broad, unstable air mass to its south. Although some reduction in moisture was expected across Mississippi due to drier air aloft and warm surface temperatures into the 80s °F, continued advection of moist air from the Gulf of Mexico seemed supportive of dewpoints in the upper 60's and lower 70's across Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi by the evening hours. Thus, mixed-layer convective available potential energy was expected to rise into the 1,500–2,000 J/kg range. Initial forecaster thinking was that strong forcing for ascent across Arkansas would lead to an organized squall line capable of both tornadoes and damaging winds, whereas more discrete supercells would be possible farther south,^[7] particularly along north–south oriented confluence bands in the open warm sector.^[8] The tornado threat relied on the amount of wind shear in the lower levels, which would aid in sustaining supercells.

Storm development

 

An observed sounding from Jackson, Mississippi, launched less than an hour before the EF4 tornado began.

A tornado watch was issued at 5:15 p.m. CDT for portions of eastern Arkansas, northeastern Louisiana, central and northern Mississippi, and western Tennessee. The watch mentioned the possibility of several strong to intense tornadoes with any persistent supercells.^[9] Clusters of storms evolved along the confluence bands in conjunction with improving wind shear profiles. However, given their displacement from the surface low and better forcing, there was some uncertainty as to whether they would become better organized.^[10] A strengthening low-level jet and surface moisture increased confidence in the maturation of these cells,^[11] but tornadic development had not yet begun in the area as of 0000 UTC.

At their 0100 UTC outlook, the Storm Prediction Center lowered the probability of tornadoes to a 10% (significant) tornado area, thus downgrading the moderate risk to an enhanced risk. The SPC cited weaker-than-expected instability in the area, with increased confidence in only limited buoyancy developing. However, the same update noted that "a couple of longer-track supercells" and "a few strong tornadoes" remained possible.^[12]

 

A meso-gamma mesoscale discussion issued by the Storm Prediction Center while the EF4 tornado was ongoing.

As the update was being issued, a strong supercell evolved near the Louisiana-Mississippi border. By 7:57 p.m. CDT, a strong velocity couplet formed at the base of the supercell, and as the storm approached the town of Rolling Fork, a tornado emergency was placed. The storm then began producing the long-tracked and deadly high-end EF4 tornado that struck Rolling Fork, Midnight, and Silver City, inflicting catastrophic damage and causing over a dozen fatalities.^[13][14] While the violent EF4 tornado was on the ground, the Storm Prediction Center issued a special meso-gamma mesoscale discussion for the tornado. In the discussion, they stated that radar showed debris was being lofted at least 13,000 feet (4,000 m) into the air and a vertical rotation of 70 knots (81 mph; 130 km/h) was also being detected. The SPC also indicated that this was likely an intense tornado, at least EF3 on the Enhanced Fujita scale, solely based on the Doppler radar data.^[15][16] The discussion concluded by noting that the downstream atmospheric environment would allow the storm producing the violent EF4 tornado, to persist for 30 to 60 minutes.^[17] The tweet from the Storm Prediction Center regarding mesoscale discussion 329 was viewed over 95,000 times.^[18] Incidentally, the original mesoscale discussion graphic, which was posted on Twitter, was for the wrong storm. This was pointed out by the chief meteorologist for KTVE, Jarod Floyd.^[19] This error was seen by SPC forecaster Elizabeth Leitman, and was quickly corrected, with the discussion noting that it “corrected for spatial delineation”.^[17][20]

Tornado summary

Formation

 

A home along Pinkins Rd, swept off its foundation at low-end EF4 intensity.

The tornado first touched down in Issaquena County, southeast of Mayersville east of the Mississippi River. It tracked northeastward, causing minor tree damage near Grand Rd, before crossing over the Steele Bayou Canal and into Sharkey County, producing EF0 to EF1 damage to trees, power poles, and some outbuildings. The tornado then rapidly grew in size and reached EF2 strength as it approached Rolling Fork from the southwest. Violent rotation of radar, paired with a debris signature, prompted the issuance of a tornado emergency; it would remain under this tag for most of its existence. Power poles and large trees were snapped, and as the tornado reached a small subdivision on Ending Bar Rd, a house lost its roof and exterior walls, and two residences west of the home lost significant portions of their roof covering. Tracking closer towards Rolling Fork, the tornado directly tracked through the Indian Bayou subdivision along Pinkins Rd at EF4 intensity. Every residence in the subdivision was destroyed, some completely swept from their slabs. Most of the homes in this area were poorly constructed, or were manufactured homes. Large hardwood trees near the residences were debarked, and some denuded at EF4 intensity. As the tornado crossed MS 826, a large metal building was swept away, as well as a small brick structure. Most trees across the highway were also uprooted or turned to stubs. The tornado would also destroy or significantly damage numerous homes east of the highway before crossing into Rolling Fork.^[21]

Rolling Fork

 

Track and intensity map of the tornado through Rolling Fork.

As the tornado entered the main neighborhoods of Rolling Fork, it weakened, but remained strong, producing widespread EF2-EF3 damage throughout much of the town's west subdivisions. Frame homes were completely leveled or swept from their foundations, approximately 30 manufactured homes were obliterated, and copious amounts of structural debris was scattered throughout the community. Many other houses sustained major structural damage, with roofs completely removed and exterior walls destroyed, while the Sharkey Issaquena Hospital sustained damage to its exterior.^[22][23] A couple was killed near 6th St, as a large semi-truck was lofted and slammed into their home. Several structures at an agriculture business were also completely flattened. The tornado again increased to EF4 intensity near the center of Rolling Fork at MS 14. A large brick duplex was completely leveled and partially swept from its foundation, and two warehouses near the center of town were completely obliterated. The local library was completely destroyed, the Rolling Fork Police Department sustained roof loss and some collapse of exterior walls, while the fire station, post office, city hall, Rolling Fork Elementary School, South Delta High School, and a church were significantly damaged.^[22][23]

 

High-end EF4 damage to a flower shop along Walnut Street in Rolling Fork.

Multiple older brick buildings in downtown Rolling Fork also had major structural damage. Several other well-built businesses and structures were completely leveled with only piles of debris remaining, one of which had multiple tractor-trailers thrown into it. One of the town's water towers was toppled when flying debris compromised its base, leaving a crater where it impacted the ground. Water towers are not an official damage indicator on the Enhanced Fujita scale, however, the National Weather Service rated the damage done to the tower EF4 with no estimated wind speed. Mechanical engineer Ethan Moriarty determined, with some assumptions, that winds up to 229 miles per hour (369 km/h) would be needed to cause the damage that was done to the water tower. He notes however, that this is only assuming the tower was made from one single piece of metal that was properly anchored and didn't suffer from environmental corrosion which were not the case.^[24] Some of the most violent damage occurred in the northeastern part of town, where a flower shop housed in a well-built brick building was completely leveled at high-end EF4 strength, with its concrete foundation slab partially swept clean of debris. The National Weather Service determined that winds up to 195 miles per hour (314 km/h) would have been needed to cause the damage done to the flower shop. Several nearby homes were also obliterated, large metal-framed buildings, including a Family Dollar store, along US 61/MS 14 were completely flattened as well. Chuck's Dairy Bar had a pickup truck thrown into it and was completely destroyed, but several people survived at this location by taking shelter in the business's walk-in cooler, the only part of the building left intact after the tornado's passage. Many vehicles were also thrown through the air and mangled, and numerous large trees in and around Rolling Fork were denuded and debarked, and a few of them were completely stripped clean of all bark.^[25][26]

Ground scouring and extreme forest damage

After exiting Rolling Fork, the tornado remained violent as it moved across several open fields, where severe ground scouring occurred and debris from the town was scattered long distances to the northeast. When it crossed Matthews Boulevard, several utility poles were snapped off at the base or pulled out of the ground, and some were left covered in up to 1–2 in (2.5–5.1 cm) of mud. A few of the missing power poles were never found, and damage in this area was rated EF2 to EF3. Southeast of Anguilla, the tornado inflicted EF4-strength damage again to hardwood trees, with most completely mangled or debarked.^[23] A mobile home was swept away and obliterated with very little debris remaining, and a bus on the property was tossed into trees. Numerous additional wooden power poles were snapped, a semi-trailer was overturned, and few homes at the edge of the damage path had minor damage. Aerial imagery of this area also revealed ground scouring and the presence of cycloidal marks in open fields. The tornado then moved into a densely forested area, causing large amounts of EF2 to EF3 tree damage.^[23][22] It crossed MS 14 east of Anguilla at EF2 strength, completely destroying a small, older frame home, snapping many trees and power poles, and rolling a mobile home.^[22][23]

Midnight

Maintaining EF2 strength, the tornado then crossed into Humphreys County and continued northeastward, where a home suffered partial destruction of its roof and garage. A truck inside the garage was overturned while another was moved, and a nearby shop building was destroyed with its metal structural beams bent. The tornado then briefly strengthened to high-end EF3 strength as it completely leveled a small brick home along Seven Mile Road, and overturned a nearby grain loader. Another home had most of its roof removed and part of a wall collapsed with vehicles blown out of its garage, while some metal buildings were damaged or destroyed. Grain bins were heavily damaged in this area as well, debris was scattered for hundreds of yards into a field, and a grain cart was thrown into the field as well. Passing through the small community of Midnight, the tornado produced EF2 damage as a home and a few barns were destroyed, trees and power poles were snapped, a sign was blown over, and a metal building and a small brick building sustained roof damage. The tornado then moved northeast along MS 149, causing EF2 to EF3 damage it approached Silver City from the southwest. A mobile home was completely destroyed after being thrown 75 ft (23 m) into a nearby field, with only the porch being left behind. A portion of the roof was blown off a school, several homes suffered partial roof loss, and two metal buildings were destroyed with large support beams bent and debris scattered across fields. Large areas of hardwood trees were snapped and uprooted, and multiple center pivot irrigation systems were flipped in this area as well.^[23][22]

Silver City, weakening, and dissipation

 

Track and intensity map of the tornado through Silver City.

The tornado then weakened some but continued causing significant damage as it moved into Silver City, where multiple apartment buildings suffered heavy roof damage, including some that had portions of their roofs removed and one that had its walls partially collapsed. Many homes throughout the town had extensive roof damage, some were completely unroofed, and a few sustained collapse of one or more exterior walls. Four manufactured homes were completely destroyed in the center of town, a church sustained roof damage, a large number of old hardwood trees were also snapped or uprooted, and power lines were downed as well. Damage in Silver City was rated EF1 to EF2 in intensity. The tornado then weakened further and moved northeastward into rural forested areas, downing trees and causing roof and window damage to a few homes to the southeast of Belzoni, with damage in this area being rated EF0 to EF1. It moved into Holmes County where more trees were snapped and uprooted at EF1 strength as the tornado approached and crossed US 49E north of Tchula. The tornado then produced a final small area of significant damage, snapping or uprooting large tree trunks at EF2 intensity in the Morgan Brake National Wildlife Refuge. Beyond this point, the tornado weakened again and produced additional EF0 to EF1 damage as it overturned pivot irrigation systems, damaged trees, and flipped or destroyed grain bins before dissipating after crossing Randle Road.

In total, the tornado traveled 59.4 miles (95.6 km), killing 17 people and injuring 165 others.^{[22][23][27][28][1]} The tornado moved with an average forward speed of 50 miles per hour (80 km/h).^[29]

Aftermath

 

In red: highlighted buildings that were damaged in Rolling Fork, MS.

Preliminary information from the National Weather Service in Jackson, Mississippi indicated that over 78% of the city of Rolling Fork and over 96% of Silver City sustained some level of damage from the tornado, with at least 300 homes sustaining damage in Rolling Fork.^[22][30] Rolling Fork's funeral director and mayor, Eldridge Walker, said on March 27 that search-and-rescue efforts were "pretty close" to finished and authorities believe everyone has been accounted for.^[31][32] Following major damage to the Sharkey Issaquena Community Hospital and the Delta Health Center, both based in Rolling Fork, the University of Mississippi Medical Center partnered with state agencies to establish a temporary field hospital at the town's National Guard Armory.^[33] The Mississippi Emergency Management Agency (MEMA) contracted with the Red Cross to provide survivors with meals and lodging in hotel rooms for up to six months.^[34] By April 11, Mayor Walker said that 500 people, approximately a third of the town's population, remained displaced. To dispose of debris and waste from the tornado's damage, Sharkey County established a burn site on the town's outskirts. On April 10 alone, 260 truckloads of debris made the trip to the burn site.^[35] Influencer and YouTuber Ryan Hall, Y'all raised $120,000 through social media to give generators out after the storm.^[36]

The Mississippi Insurance Department stated that insured losses from the tornado were near $100 million (2023 USD), with uninsured losses likely even higher.^[37]

Political response

 

Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and Governor Reeves touring the damage in Rolling Fork on March 26.

Both state and national politicians responded to the devastation in Mississippi. On March 25, Governor of Mississippi Tate Reeves declared a state of emergency in Sharkey, Humphreys, Carroll, and Monroe counties.^[38] Governor Reeves's request for a major disaster declaration was granted by President Joe Biden on March 26.^[39] President Biden visited Rolling Fork personally on March 31 and announced that the federal government would fully cover the cost of the cleanup.^[40] The Mississippi state legislature also later approved approximately $18.5 million in tornado relief funds.^[28]

See also

 

Wikimedia Commons has media related to 2023 Rolling Fork–Silver City tornado.

• List of North American tornadoes and tornado outbreaks
• Weather of 2023
• List of F4 and EF4 tornadoes (2020–present)
• List of United States tornadoes in March 2023
• List of Storm Prediction Center meso-gamma mesoscale discussions

References

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