2015 Mississippi gubernatorial election

See also: 2015 Mississippi elections and 2015 United States gubernatorial elections

The 2015 Mississippi gubernatorial election took place on November 3, 2015, to elect the Governor of Mississippi. Incumbent Republican Governor Phil Bryant ran for re-election to a second and final term in office. This is the highest percentage that a Republican has ever won in a gubernatorial election in Mississippi.

2015 Mississippi gubernatorial election

← 2011 November 3, 2015 2019 →

Nominee Phil Bryant Robert Gray Party Republican Democratic Electoral vote 85 37 Popular vote 480,399 234,858 Percentage 66.24% 32.38%

County results Congressional district results Bryant:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90% Gray:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

Governor before election Phil Bryant Republican Elected Governor Phil Bryant Republican

The election gained national news coverage and attention due to the unexpected Democratic nominee selection of truck driver and former firefighter, Robert Gray, who had not had any political experience prior to his candidacy.^[1]

As of 2023, this is by far the best performance by a Republican in a gubernatorial election in the Magnolia State. This is also the only time that the following counties have voted Republican for governor: Clay, Marshall, Quitman, Sharkey, and Tallahatchie.

Background

Mississippi is one of nine states and territories that has lifetime limits of two terms for its governor. In 2011, with incumbent Republican Governor Haley Barbour term-limited, Republican Lieutenant Governor Phil Bryant was elected to succeed him. Bryant won the Republican primary with 59% of the vote and then defeated the Democratic nominee, Hattiesburg Mayor Johnny DuPree, with 61% of the vote.

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

• Phil Bryant, incumbent Governor^[2]
• Mitch Young^[3]

Declined

• Chris McDaniel, state senator and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014^[4][5]
• Michael Watson, state senator^[6][7]

Result

Republican primary results^[8]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Phil Bryant (incumbent)	256,689	91.86%
	Republican	Mitch Young	22,738	8.14%
Total votes			279,427	100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

• Robert Gray, truck driver and retired firefighter^[3][9]
• Valerie Short, physician^[10]
• Vicki Slater, attorney^[11][12]

Declined

• Travis Childers, former U.S. Representative and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2014^[13]
• Jim Hood, Attorney General of Mississippi (running for re-election)^[14][15]
• Bill Luckett, Mayor of Clarksdale and candidate for governor in 2011^[11][16]
• Dick Molpus, former Secretary of State of Mississippi and nominee for governor in 1995^[11]
• Brandon Presley, Commissioner for the Northern District of the Mississippi Public Service Commission and former Mayor of Nettleton (running for re-election)^[17]

Result

 

Results by county

Democratic primary results^[18]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Robert Gray	152,087	50.80%
	Democratic	Vicki Slater	91,104	30.43%
	Democratic	Valerie Short	56,177	18.77%
Total votes			299,368	100.00%

Reform Party nomination

Candidate

• Shawn O'Hara, perennial candidate^[19]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[20]	Safe R	October 26, 2015
Rothenberg Political Report^[21]	Safe R	October 27, 2015
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[22]	Safe R	October 29, 2015
DKE^[23]	Safe R	October 29, 2015

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Phil Bryant (R)	Robert Gray (D)	Shawn O'Hara (Ref)	Undecided
Mason-Dixon	October 21–25, 2015	625	± 4%	66%	28%	1%	5%

Hypothetical polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Phil Bryant (R)	Jim Hood (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	July 10–13, 2014	691	± 3.7%	44%	33%	—	22%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Phil Bryant (R)	Brandon Presley (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	July 10–13, 2014	691	± 3.7%	49%	26%	—	25%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Phil Bryant (R)	Valerie Short (D)	Other	Undecided
Mason-Dixon	April 21–23, 2015	625	± 4%	63%	28%	3%^[24]	6%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Phil Bryant (R)	Vicki Slater (D)	Other	Undecided
Mason-Dixon	April 21–23, 2015	625	± 4%	61%	30%	2%^[24]	7%

Result

Candidate		Party	Popular vote		Electoral vote
			Votes	%	Votes	%
	Phil Bryant	Republican Party	480,399	66.24	85	69.67
	Robert Gray	Democratic Party	234,858	32.38	37	30.33
	Shawn O'Hara	Reform Party	9,950	1.37
Total			725,207	100.00	122	100.00
Source: Mississippi Secretary of State

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Adams (Largest city: Natchez)
• Clay (Largest city: West Point)
• Kemper (Largest city: De Kalb)
• Marshall (Largest city: Holly Springs)
• Quitman (Largest city: Lambert)
• Sharkey (Largest city: Rolling Fork)
• Tallahatchie (Largest city: Charleston)

References

1. Robertson, Campbell (September 7, 2015). "Chosen by Mississippi Democrats, Shy Trucker is at a Crossroad". The New York Times.
2. Geoff Pender (January 18, 2015). "Power Rankings: Top Session Issues". The Clarion-Ledger. Retrieved January 28, 2015.
3. Wagster Pettus, Emily (February 26, 2015). "Bryant to face primary challenge from Mitch Young". The Clarion-Ledger. Retrieved February 27, 2015.
4. Geoff Pender (July 19, 2014). "Pender: Who's running for what in '15". The Clarion-Ledger. Retrieved September 7, 2014.
5. Pender, Geoff (February 26, 2015). "McDaniel running for re-election to state Senate". The Clarion-Ledger. Retrieved February 27, 2015.
6. Alexander Burns (June 24, 2014). "Mississippi's revolution may be just starting". Politico. Retrieved June 24, 2014.
7. Pender, Geoff (February 26, 2015). "Watson running for re-election, not higher office". The Clarion-Ledger. Retrieved February 27, 2015.
8. . Mississippi Secretary of State. Archived from the original on February 25, 2021. Retrieved August 18, 2019.
9. Nave, R.L. (August 5, 2015). "Robert Gray in (Truck) Driver's Seat to Challenge Gov. Phil Bryant". Jackson Free Press. Retrieved August 5, 2015.
10. Wagster Pettus, Emily (February 27, 2015). "All 8 statewide Mississippi officials challenged in election". The Sun Herald. Archived from the original on March 1, 2015. Retrieved March 1, 2015.
11. Pender, Geoff (February 14, 2015). "Candidates playing chicken with deadline". The Clarion-Ledger. Retrieved February 15, 2015.
12. Pender, Geoff (February 19, 2015). "Democratic Party announcing Slater for governor". The Clarion-Ledger. Retrieved February 19, 2015.
13. Abby Livingston (September 25, 2013). "Mississippi Republicans Wait for Cochran's Decision". Roll Call. Retrieved September 26, 2013.
14. Floyd Ingram (July 31, 2013). "Jim Hood to open state office in Houston". Chickasaw Journal. Retrieved July 23, 2014.
15. "AP analysis: Mississippi party leaders preparing strategy for 2015". Gulf Live. August 25, 2013. Retrieved July 23, 2014.
16. Wright, Jesse (January 13, 2015). "'Draft Bill' movement not gaining traction with Luckett". Clarksdale Press Register. Archived from the original on January 18, 2015. Retrieved January 14, 2015.
17. Gates, Jimmie E. (December 30, 2014). "Brandon Presley says he isn't running for governor". The Clarion-Ledger. Retrieved January 1, 2015.
18. "2015 DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY". Mississippi Secretary of State. Retrieved August 18, 2019.
19. "2015 Candidate Qualifying List" (PDF). Mississippi Secretary of State. Retrieved July 28, 2015.
20. "2015-16 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report.
21. "Gubernatorial Ratings | Inside Elections". www.insideelections.com.
22. "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2016 Governor". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org.
23. "Election Outlook: 2016 Race Ratings". Daily Kos. Retrieved October 21, 2015.
24. Shawn O'Hara (Reform)

External links

Campaign websites (archived)