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Bush tax cuts

The phrase Bush tax cuts refers to changes to the United States tax code passed originally during the presidency of George W. Bush and extended during the presidency of Barack Obama, through:

While each act has its own legislative history and effect on the tax code, the JGTRRA amplified and accelerated aspects of the EGTRRA. Since 2003, the two acts have often been spoken of together, especially in terms of analyzing their effect on the U.S. economy and population and in discussing their political ramifications. Both laws were passed using controversial congressional reconciliation procedures.[1]

The Bush tax cuts had sunset provisions that made them expire at the end of 2010, since otherwise they would fall under the Byrd Rule. Whether to renew the lowered rates, and how, became the subject of extended political debate, which was resolved during the presidency of Barack Obama by a two-year extension that was part of a larger tax and economic package, the Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act of 2010. In 2012, during the fiscal cliff, Obama overcame the sunset provisions and made the tax cuts permanent for single people earning less than $400,000 per year and couples making less than $450,000 per year, but did not stop the sunset provisions from applying to higher incomes, under the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012.

Before the tax cuts, the highest marginal income tax rate was 39.6 percent. After the cuts, the highest rate was 35 percent. Once the cuts were allowed to sunset for high income levels (single people making $400,000+ per year and couples making $450,000+ per year), the top income tax rate returned to 39.6 percent.

Implications for the Alternative Minimum Tax edit

 
Average tax rate percentages for the highest-income U.S. taxpayers, 1945–2009

The 2001 act and the 2003 act significantly lowered the marginal tax rates for nearly all U.S. taxpayers. One byproduct of this tax rate reduction was that it brought to prominence a previously lesser known provision of the U.S. Internal Revenue Code, the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT). The AMT was originally designed as a way of making sure that wealthy taxpayers could not take advantage of "too many" tax incentives and reduce their tax obligation by too much. It is a parallel system of calculating a taxpayer's tax liability that eliminates many deductions. However the applicable AMT rates were not adjusted to match the lowered rates of the 2001 and 2003 acts, causing many more people to face higher taxes. This reduced the benefit of the two acts for many upper-middle income earners, particularly those with deductions for state and local income taxes, dependents, and property taxes.

The AMT exemption level aspects of the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts, as well as the sunsetting year of capital gains and dividends, were among the tweaks made to the tax code in the Tax Increase Prevention and Reconciliation Act of 2005.

CBO Scoring edit

The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office has consistently reported that the Bush tax cuts did not pay for themselves and represented a sizable decline in revenue for the Treasury:

  • The CBO estimated in June 2012 that the Bush tax cuts of 2001 (EGTRRA) and 2003 (JGTRRA) added approximately $1.5 trillion total to the debt over the 2002–2011 decade, excluding interest.[2]
  • The CBO estimated in January 2009 that the Bush tax cuts would add approximately $3.0 trillion to the debt over the 2010–2019 decade if fully extended at all income levels, including interest.[3]
  • The CBO estimated in January 2009 that extending the Bush tax cuts at all income levels over the 2011–2019 period would increase the annual deficit by an average of 1.7% GDP, reaching 2.0% GDP in 2018 and 2019.[3]

Debate over effect of cuts edit

 
CBO data – Federal individual income tax revenue trends from 2000 to 2009 (dollars and % GDP)

There was and is considerable controversy over who benefited from the tax cuts and whether or not they have been effective in spurring sufficient growth. Supporters of the proposal and proponents of lower taxes say that the tax cuts increased the pace of economic recovery and job creation. Further, proponents of the cuts asserted that lowering taxes on all citizens, including the rich, would benefit all and would actually increase receipts from the wealthiest Americans as their tax rates would decline without resort to tax shelters. Opponents argued the tax cuts on the wealthy were simply of the trickle down variety.[4] The Wall Street Journal editorial page states that taxes paid by millionaire households more than doubled from $136 billion in 2003 to $274 billion in 2006 because of the JGTRRA.[5]

A report published by staff at conservative public policy think tank The Heritage Foundation claimed that the 2001 cuts alone would result in the complete elimination of the U.S. national debt by fiscal year 2010.[6]

The Heritage Foundation concluded in 2007 that the Bush tax cuts led to the rich shouldering more of the income tax burden and the poor shouldering less;[7] while the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP) has concluded that the tax cuts have conferred the "largest benefits, by far on the highest income households." CBPP cites data from the Tax Policy Center, stating that 24.2% of tax savings went to households in the top one percent of income compared to the share of 8.9% that went to the middle 20 percent.[8] The underlying policy has been criticized by Democratic Party congressional opponents for giving tax cuts to the rich with capital gains tax breaks.[9]

Statements by President Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney, and Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist that these tax cuts effectively "paid for themselves" have been disputed by the CBPP,[10] the U.S. Treasury Department and the CBO.[11][12][13][14] Economist Paul Krugman wrote in 2007: "Supply side doctrine, which claimed without evidence that tax cuts would pay for themselves, never got any traction in the world of professional economic research, even among conservatives."[15] Since 2001, federal income tax revenues have remained below the 30-year average of 8.4% of GDP with the exception of 2007, and did not regain their year 2000 dollar peak until 2006, though reasons for regaining previous levels are not given (see chart at right).[16]

 
The U.S. federal effective corporate tax rate, 1947–2011

Some policy analysts and non-profit groups such as OMBWatch,[17] Center on Budget and Policy Priorities,[18] and the Tax Policy Center[19] have attributed much of the rise in income inequality to the Bush administration's tax policy. In February 2007, President Bush addressed the rise of inequality for the first time, saying "The reason is clear: We have an economy that increasingly rewards education and skills because of that education."[20]

Critics state that the tax cuts, including those given to middle and lower income households, failed to spur growth. Critics have further stated that the cuts also increased the budget deficit, shifted the tax burden from the rich to the middle and working classes, and further increased already high levels of income inequality.[21][22][23][24][25] Economists Peter Orszag and William Gale described the Bush tax cuts as reverse government redistribution of wealth, "[shifting] the burden of taxation away from upper-income, capital-owning households and toward the wage-earning households of the lower and middle classes."[26] Supporters argued that the tax brackets were still more progressive than the brackets from 1986 until 1992, with higher marginal rates on the upper class, and lower marginal rates on the middle class than established by either the Tax Reform Act of 1986 or the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1990.[27]

 
U.S. Federal budget deficit as % GDP assuming continuation of certain policies 2011–2021

Economist Simon Johnson wrote in 2010: "The U.S. government doesn’t take in much tax revenue—at least 10 percentage points of GDP less than comparable developed economies—and it also doesn’t spend much except on the military, Social Security and Medicare. Other parts of government spending can be frozen or even slashed, but it just won’t make that much difference. That means older Americans are going to get squeezed, while our ability to defend ourselves goes into decline. Just because there’s a bipartisan consensus on an idea, such as tax cuts, doesn’t mean it makes sense. Today’s tax cutters have set us up for tomorrow’s fiscal crisis and real damage to U.S. national security."[28]

A The Washington Post article takes a different view, saying that data showed the biggest contributor to the disappearance of projected surpluses was increased spending, which accounted for 36.5 percent of the decline in the nation's fiscal position, followed by incorrect CBO estimates, which accounted for 28 percent. The Bush tax cuts (along with some Obama tax cuts) were responsible for just 24 percent.[29]

The New York Times stated in an editorial that the full Bush-era tax cuts were the single biggest contributor to the deficit over the past decade, reducing revenues by about $1.8 trillion between 2002 and 2009.[30] However, a 2006 article asserted that there was a "surprising jump" in tax revenue that was "curbing" the deficit.[31]

CBO estimated in June 2012 that the Bush tax cuts (EGTRRA and JGTRRA) added about $1.6 trillion to the debt between 2001 and 2011, excluding interest.[32] A 2006 Treasury Department study estimated that the Bush tax cuts reduced revenue by approximately 1.5% GDP on average for each of the first four years of their implementation, an approximately 6% annual reduction in revenue relative to a baseline without those tax cuts. The study did not extend the analysis beyond the first four years of implementation.[33]

Debate over continuation of cuts edit

 
Congressional Research Service (CRS) analysis on extending the tax cuts from September 2010

Most of the tax cuts were scheduled to expire December 31, 2010. Debate over what to do regarding the expiration became a regular issue in the 2004 and 2008 U.S. presidential elections, with Republican candidates generally wanting the cut rates made permanent and Democratic candidates generally advocating for a retention of the lower rates for middle-class incomes but a return to Clinton-era rates for high incomes. During his presidential election campaign, then candidate Obama stated that couples with incomes less than $250,000 would not be subjected to tax increases. This income level later became a focal point for debate over what defined the middle class.[34][failed verification]

In August 2010, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that extending the tax cuts for the 2011–2020 time period would add $3.3 trillion to the national debt, comprising $2.65 trillion in foregone tax revenue plus another $0.66 trillion for interest and debt service costs.[35]

The non-partisan Pew Charitable Trusts estimated in May 2010 that extending some or all of the tax cuts would have the following impact under these scenarios:

  • Making the tax cuts permanent for all taxpayers, regardless of income, would increase the national debt $3.3 trillion over the next 10 years.
  • Limiting the extension to individuals making less than $200,000 and married couples earning less than $250,000 would increase the debt about $2.2 trillion in the next decade.
  • Extending the tax cuts for all taxpayers for only two years would cost $561 billion over the next 10 years.[36]

The non-partisan Congressional Research Service has estimated the 10-year revenue loss from extending the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts beyond 2010 at $2.9 trillion, with an additional $606 billion in debt service costs (interest), for a combined total of $3.5 trillion.[37]

In late July 2010, analysts at Deutsche Bank said letting the Bush tax cuts expire for those earning more than $250,000 would greatly slow economic recovery. However, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said allowing the expiration would not cause such a slowing. The Obama administration proposed keeping tax cuts for couples making less than $250,000 per year.[38] Economist Mark Zandi predicted that making the Bush tax cuts permanent would be the second least stimulative of several policies considered. Making the tax cuts permanent would have a multiplier effect of 0.29 (compared to the highest multiplier of 1.73 for food stamps).[39]

Extension of Bush tax cuts edit

 
President Obama signs the extension of the tax cuts into law.

The issue came to a head in late 2010, during a lame-duck session of the 111th Congress. The Slurpee Summit was a White House meeting between U.S. President Barack Obama and U.S. Congressional leaders[40] that occurred on November 30, 2010.[41] The name "Slurpee Summit" is a reference to an analogy Obama used while campaigning for the 2010 midterm elections. It was the first such meeting in the wake of the November midterm election in which Republicans took control of the House and gained six seats in the Democratic-controlled Senate.[42] Obama apologized during the meeting for not making a greater effort to reach out to Republican lawmakers during his first two years in office,[43] and appointed Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and Office of Management and Budget chief Jack Lew to help Republicans and Democrats hammer out an agreement on extending the Bush tax cuts.[44] In return, all 42 Republican senators pledged to block all legislation until the tax matter was settled.[45][46]

Congressional Democrats offered two attempts to extend the sunsetting Bush-era rates for "middle income" families but allow their expiration for "high income" people. The first proposal had a cutoff at $250,000, while the second raised the dividing line to $1 million. Both proposals were able to pass in the House, but on December 4, 2010, both fell short of the 60 votes required to avoid a filibuster.[47]

On December 6, 2010, President Barack Obama announced a compromise tax package proposal had been reached, centered around a temporary, two-year extension of the Bush tax cuts.[48] In particular, the framework included key points such as:

  • Extending the 2001/2003 income tax rates for two years. Also, reforming the AMT to ensure an additional 21 million households will not face a tax increase. These measures are intended to provide relief to more than 100 million middle-class families and prevent an annual tax increase of over $2,000 for the typical family.[49]
  • Additional provisions designed to promote economic growth. $56 billion in unemployment insurance, an approximate $120 billion payroll tax cut for working families, about $40 billion in tax cuts for the hardest hit families and students, and 100 percent expensing for businesses during 2011.[49][50]
  • Estate tax adjustment. Rates would be 35 percent after a $5 million exemption.[50][51]

Obama said, "I'm not willing to let working families across this country become collateral damage for political warfare here in Washington. And I'm not willing to let our economy slip backwards just as we're pulling ourselves out of this devastating recession. ... So, sympathetic as I am to those who prefer a fight over compromise, as much as the political wisdom may dictate fighting over solving problems, it would be the wrong thing to do. ... As for now, I believe this bipartisan plan is the right thing to do. It’s the right thing to do for jobs. It’s the right thing to do for the middle class. It is the right thing to do for business. And it’s the right thing to do for our economy. It offers us an opportunity that we need to seize."[52] According to Kori Schulman (2010), Director of Online Engagement for the Whitehouse media team, the agreement has three accomplishments: “working families will not lose their tax cut, focused on high impact job creation measures, and does not worsen the medium-and-long-term deficit.”[53]

 
The Bush Deficit, by Nancy Pelosi

Administration officials like Vice President Joe Biden then worked to convince wary Democratic members of Congress to accept the plan, notwithstanding a continuation of lower rates for the highest-income taxpayers.[54] The compromise proved popular in public opinion polls, and allowed Obama to portray himself as a consensus-builder not beholden to the liberal wing of his party.[55] The bill was opposed by some of the most conservative members of the Republican Party as well as by talk radio hosts such as Rush Limbaugh and some groups in the Tea Party movement.[55][56] It was also opposed by several leading potential candidates for the Republican nomination in the 2012 presidential election, including Mitt Romney,[55] typically on the grounds that it did not make the Bush tax cuts permanent and that it would overall increase the national deficit.[57]

In an interview during these debates, former President Bush said, "I wish they would have called it something other than the 'Bush tax cuts'. There'd probably be less angst amongst some to pass it."[58] He argued strongly for maintaining the rates: "I do believe it's very important to send the signal to our entrepreneurs and our families that the government trusts them to spend their own money. And I happen to believe lower taxes is what stimulates economic growth and what we need now in our country is economic growth."[58]

On December 15, 2010, the Senate passed the compromise package with an 81–19 vote, with large majorities of both Democrats and Republicans supporting it.[59] Near midnight on December 16, the House passed the measure on a vote of 277–148, with only a modest majority of Democrats but a large majority of Republicans voting for the package.[60][61] Before that, an amendment put forward by Democratic Representative Earl Pomeroy and the progressives among the Democratic caucus to raise the estate tax, which was the ultimate sticking point of the deal for them and the cause of a minor revolt among those against it, failed on a 194–233 vote.[55][60][62]The Washington Post called the approved deal "the most significant tax bill in nearly a decade."[61] President Barack Obama signed the Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act of 2010, on December 17, 2010.

Fiscal cliff edit

 
Budget deficits, projected through 2022. The CBO Baseline shows the effects of the fiscal cliff if Congress did nothing. The Alternative Scenario represents what would happen if Congress extends the tax and spending laws that are due to expire at the end of 2012.

The "fiscal cliff" refers to December 31, 2012, the date of the expected implementation of government spending reductions and expiration of a large number of tax cuts, many of which were the tax cuts enacted under George W. Bush and extended by President Obama. In a report released in May 2012, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) In addition to the government spending reductions and tax cuts, increases in costs from the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act were slated to take effect, as well.[63] The CBO predicted that these policy changes could lead to reduced economic growth, significant enough to be considered a recession, although the 2013 deficit would be cut roughly in half and the debt trajectory over the next decade would be significantly improved.[64][65]

The increase in tax rates that was due to occur had been described by Republicans including House Speaker John Boehner, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor and Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell as the largest in U.S. history, although the U.S. would be returning to Clinton-era tax rates. According to the Associated Press, the increase would be the second largest after the tax increase of 1942, if population growth, increased pay and the size of the economy are taken into account.[64]

Based on figures from the CBO and Joint Committee on Taxation, federal taxes would have increased by a total of $423 billion in 2013, if the tax cuts had been allowed to expire.[64] The non-partisan Tax Policy Center estimated that for 83% of households in the U.S., there would be an average tax increase of $3,701[66] and The Heritage Foundation stated that those impacted by the tax cut expiry are primarily in the middle- and low-income groups, with its research finding that families would experience an average tax increase of $4,138.[67]

According to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, the expiration of the Bush income tax rates (i.e., returning to Clinton-era rates) would have affected higher income families more than lower income families. The Bush tax cuts reduced income taxes for those earning over $1 million by $110,000 per year on average during the 2004–2012 period. The tax cuts made the tax system less progressive. From 2004 through 2012, the tax cuts increased the after-tax income of the highest-income taxpayers by a far larger percentage than they did for middle- and low-income taxpayers. During 2010 for example, the tax cuts increased the after-tax income of people making over $1 million by more than 7.3%, but increased the after-tax income of the middle 20% of households by just 2.8%[68]

A report from the CBO[69] concluded that extending the tax cuts and spending policies would lead to federal debt increasing from 73% in 2012 to over 90% of U.S. gross domestic product by 2022, but that the debt-to-GDP ratio would decline to 61% in 2022 if the tax cuts expired and scheduled spending cuts took place. The CBO concluded that

The explosive path of federal debt under the alternative fiscal scenario underscores the need for large and timely policy changes to put the federal government on a sustainable fiscal course. Policymakers will need to increase revenues substantially above historical levels as a percentage of GDP, decrease spending significantly from projected levels, or adopt some combination of those two approaches. In fact, the current laws that underlie CBO's baseline projections provide for significant changes of those kinds in coming years; many other approaches to constraining future deficits are possible as well.

CBO's term "alternative scenario" refers to extending the tax cuts and preventing scheduled automatic spending cuts, while "baseline scenario" refers to allowing the tax cuts to expire and the spending cuts to take place, as provided for by laws in effect in June 2012.

The expiration of the tax rate cuts was opposed by Republicans including those on the House Ways and Means Committee, which attempted to produce a bill providing for a one-year extension that would ensure that federal tax rates for all income levels, capital gains, dividends and estate taxes would remain the same. The bill would have also retained tax credits including the child tax credit but would propose ending the current payroll-tax cut.[70] The Democratic-majority Senate was in favor of extending the tax cuts only on that portion of household income below $250,000 per year.[71][72]

American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 edit

On January 1, 2013, the Bush Tax Cuts expired. However, on January 2, 2013, President Obama signed the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012, which reinstated many of the tax cuts, effective retroactively to January 1. The 2012 Act did not repeal the increase in the highest marginal income tax rate (from 35% to 39.6%) which had been imposed on January 1 as a result of the expiration of the Bush Tax Cuts.

See also edit

References edit

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External links edit

  • EGTRRA's impact on tax revenue and summary of changes, via irs.gov
  • Special Report: Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003 (JGTRRA), Professor John Wachowicz at the University of Tennessee
  • Effective Federal Tax Rates Under Current Law, 2001 to 2014, by the Congressional Budget Office
  • Fact Sheet on the Framework Agreement on Middle Class Tax Cuts and Unemployment Insurance, The White House

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The phrase Bush tax cuts refers to changes to the United States tax code passed originally during the presidency of George W Bush and extended during the presidency of Barack Obama through Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001 EGTRRA Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003 JGTRRA Tax Relief Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization and Job Creation Act of 2010 American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 partial extension While each act has its own legislative history and effect on the tax code the JGTRRA amplified and accelerated aspects of the EGTRRA Since 2003 the two acts have often been spoken of together especially in terms of analyzing their effect on the U S economy and population and in discussing their political ramifications Both laws were passed using controversial congressional reconciliation procedures 1 The Bush tax cuts had sunset provisions that made them expire at the end of 2010 since otherwise they would fall under the Byrd Rule Whether to renew the lowered rates and how became the subject of extended political debate which was resolved during the presidency of Barack Obama by a two year extension that was part of a larger tax and economic package the Tax Relief Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization and Job Creation Act of 2010 In 2012 during the fiscal cliff Obama overcame the sunset provisions and made the tax cuts permanent for single people earning less than 400 000 per year and couples making less than 450 000 per year but did not stop the sunset provisions from applying to higher incomes under the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 Before the tax cuts the highest marginal income tax rate was 39 6 percent After the cuts the highest rate was 35 percent Once the cuts were allowed to sunset for high income levels single people making 400 000 per year and couples making 450 000 per year the top income tax rate returned to 39 6 percent Contents 1 Implications for the Alternative Minimum Tax 2 CBO Scoring 3 Debate over effect of cuts 4 Debate over continuation of cuts 5 Extension of Bush tax cuts 5 1 Fiscal cliff 6 American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 7 See also 8 References 9 External linksImplications for the Alternative Minimum Tax edit nbsp Average tax rate percentages for the highest income U S taxpayers 1945 2009The 2001 act and the 2003 act significantly lowered the marginal tax rates for nearly all U S taxpayers One byproduct of this tax rate reduction was that it brought to prominence a previously lesser known provision of the U S Internal Revenue Code the Alternative Minimum Tax AMT The AMT was originally designed as a way of making sure that wealthy taxpayers could not take advantage of too many tax incentives and reduce their tax obligation by too much It is a parallel system of calculating a taxpayer s tax liability that eliminates many deductions However the applicable AMT rates were not adjusted to match the lowered rates of the 2001 and 2003 acts causing many more people to face higher taxes This reduced the benefit of the two acts for many upper middle income earners particularly those with deductions for state and local income taxes dependents and property taxes The AMT exemption level aspects of the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts as well as the sunsetting year of capital gains and dividends were among the tweaks made to the tax code in the Tax Increase Prevention and Reconciliation Act of 2005 CBO Scoring editThe non partisan Congressional Budget Office has consistently reported that the Bush tax cuts did not pay for themselves and represented a sizable decline in revenue for the Treasury The CBO estimated in June 2012 that the Bush tax cuts of 2001 EGTRRA and 2003 JGTRRA added approximately 1 5 trillion total to the debt over the 2002 2011 decade excluding interest 2 The CBO estimated in January 2009 that the Bush tax cuts would add approximately 3 0 trillion to the debt over the 2010 2019 decade if fully extended at all income levels including interest 3 The CBO estimated in January 2009 that extending the Bush tax cuts at all income levels over the 2011 2019 period would increase the annual deficit by an average of 1 7 GDP reaching 2 0 GDP in 2018 and 2019 3 Debate over effect of cuts edit nbsp CBO data Federal individual income tax revenue trends from 2000 to 2009 dollars and GDP There was and is considerable controversy over who benefited from the tax cuts and whether or not they have been effective in spurring sufficient growth Supporters of the proposal and proponents of lower taxes say that the tax cuts increased the pace of economic recovery and job creation Further proponents of the cuts asserted that lowering taxes on all citizens including the rich would benefit all and would actually increase receipts from the wealthiest Americans as their tax rates would decline without resort to tax shelters Opponents argued the tax cuts on the wealthy were simply of the trickle down variety 4 The Wall Street Journal editorial page states that taxes paid by millionaire households more than doubled from 136 billion in 2003 to 274 billion in 2006 because of the JGTRRA 5 A report published by staff at conservative public policy think tank The Heritage Foundation claimed that the 2001 cuts alone would result in the complete elimination of the U S national debt by fiscal year 2010 6 The Heritage Foundation concluded in 2007 that the Bush tax cuts led to the rich shouldering more of the income tax burden and the poor shouldering less 7 while the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities CBPP has concluded that the tax cuts have conferred the largest benefits by far on the highest income households CBPP cites data from the Tax Policy Center stating that 24 2 of tax savings went to households in the top one percent of income compared to the share of 8 9 that went to the middle 20 percent 8 The underlying policy has been criticized by Democratic Party congressional opponents for giving tax cuts to the rich with capital gains tax breaks 9 Statements by President Bush Vice President Dick Cheney and Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist that these tax cuts effectively paid for themselves have been disputed by the CBPP 10 the U S Treasury Department and the CBO 11 12 13 14 Economist Paul Krugman wrote in 2007 Supply side doctrine which claimed without evidence that tax cuts would pay for themselves never got any traction in the world of professional economic research even among conservatives 15 Since 2001 federal income tax revenues have remained below the 30 year average of 8 4 of GDP with the exception of 2007 and did not regain their year 2000 dollar peak until 2006 though reasons for regaining previous levels are not given see chart at right 16 nbsp The U S federal effective corporate tax rate 1947 2011Some policy analysts and non profit groups such as OMBWatch 17 Center on Budget and Policy Priorities 18 and the Tax Policy Center 19 have attributed much of the rise in income inequality to the Bush administration s tax policy In February 2007 President Bush addressed the rise of inequality for the first time saying The reason is clear We have an economy that increasingly rewards education and skills because of that education 20 Critics state that the tax cuts including those given to middle and lower income households failed to spur growth Critics have further stated that the cuts also increased the budget deficit shifted the tax burden from the rich to the middle and working classes and further increased already high levels of income inequality 21 22 23 24 25 Economists Peter Orszag and William Gale described the Bush tax cuts as reverse government redistribution of wealth shifting the burden of taxation away from upper income capital owning households and toward the wage earning households of the lower and middle classes 26 Supporters argued that the tax brackets were still more progressive than the brackets from 1986 until 1992 with higher marginal rates on the upper class and lower marginal rates on the middle class than established by either the Tax Reform Act of 1986 or the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1990 27 nbsp U S Federal budget deficit as GDP assuming continuation of certain policies 2011 2021Economist Simon Johnson wrote in 2010 The U S government doesn t take in much tax revenue at least 10 percentage points of GDP less than comparable developed economies and it also doesn t spend much except on the military Social Security and Medicare Other parts of government spending can be frozen or even slashed but it just won t make that much difference That means older Americans are going to get squeezed while our ability to defend ourselves goes into decline Just because there s a bipartisan consensus on an idea such as tax cuts doesn t mean it makes sense Today s tax cutters have set us up for tomorrow s fiscal crisis and real damage to U S national security 28 A The Washington Post article takes a different view saying that data showed the biggest contributor to the disappearance of projected surpluses was increased spending which accounted for 36 5 percent of the decline in the nation s fiscal position followed by incorrect CBO estimates which accounted for 28 percent The Bush tax cuts along with some Obama tax cuts were responsible for just 24 percent 29 The New York Times stated in an editorial that the full Bush era tax cuts were the single biggest contributor to the deficit over the past decade reducing revenues by about 1 8 trillion between 2002 and 2009 30 However a 2006 article asserted that there was a surprising jump in tax revenue that was curbing the deficit 31 CBO estimated in June 2012 that the Bush tax cuts EGTRRA and JGTRRA added about 1 6 trillion to the debt between 2001 and 2011 excluding interest 32 A 2006 Treasury Department study estimated that the Bush tax cuts reduced revenue by approximately 1 5 GDP on average for each of the first four years of their implementation an approximately 6 annual reduction in revenue relative to a baseline without those tax cuts The study did not extend the analysis beyond the first four years of implementation 33 Debate over continuation of cuts edit nbsp Congressional Research Service CRS analysis on extending the tax cuts from September 2010Most of the tax cuts were scheduled to expire December 31 2010 Debate over what to do regarding the expiration became a regular issue in the 2004 and 2008 U S presidential elections with Republican candidates generally wanting the cut rates made permanent and Democratic candidates generally advocating for a retention of the lower rates for middle class incomes but a return to Clinton era rates for high incomes During his presidential election campaign then candidate Obama stated that couples with incomes less than 250 000 would not be subjected to tax increases This income level later became a focal point for debate over what defined the middle class 34 failed verification In August 2010 the Congressional Budget Office CBO estimated that extending the tax cuts for the 2011 2020 time period would add 3 3 trillion to the national debt comprising 2 65 trillion in foregone tax revenue plus another 0 66 trillion for interest and debt service costs 35 The non partisan Pew Charitable Trusts estimated in May 2010 that extending some or all of the tax cuts would have the following impact under these scenarios Making the tax cuts permanent for all taxpayers regardless of income would increase the national debt 3 3 trillion over the next 10 years Limiting the extension to individuals making less than 200 000 and married couples earning less than 250 000 would increase the debt about 2 2 trillion in the next decade Extending the tax cuts for all taxpayers for only two years would cost 561 billion over the next 10 years 36 The non partisan Congressional Research Service has estimated the 10 year revenue loss from extending the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts beyond 2010 at 2 9 trillion with an additional 606 billion in debt service costs interest for a combined total of 3 5 trillion 37 In late July 2010 analysts at Deutsche Bank said letting the Bush tax cuts expire for those earning more than 250 000 would greatly slow economic recovery However Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said allowing the expiration would not cause such a slowing The Obama administration proposed keeping tax cuts for couples making less than 250 000 per year 38 Economist Mark Zandi predicted that making the Bush tax cuts permanent would be the second least stimulative of several policies considered Making the tax cuts permanent would have a multiplier effect of 0 29 compared to the highest multiplier of 1 73 for food stamps 39 Extension of Bush tax cuts edit nbsp President Obama signs the extension of the tax cuts into law Main article Tax Relief Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization and Job Creation Act of 2010 The issue came to a head in late 2010 during a lame duck session of the 111th Congress The Slurpee Summit was a White House meeting between U S President Barack Obama and U S Congressional leaders 40 that occurred on November 30 2010 41 The name Slurpee Summit is a reference to an analogy Obama used while campaigning for the 2010 midterm elections It was the first such meeting in the wake of the November midterm election in which Republicans took control of the House and gained six seats in the Democratic controlled Senate 42 Obama apologized during the meeting for not making a greater effort to reach out to Republican lawmakers during his first two years in office 43 and appointed Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and Office of Management and Budget chief Jack Lew to help Republicans and Democrats hammer out an agreement on extending the Bush tax cuts 44 In return all 42 Republican senators pledged to block all legislation until the tax matter was settled 45 46 Congressional Democrats offered two attempts to extend the sunsetting Bush era rates for middle income families but allow their expiration for high income people The first proposal had a cutoff at 250 000 while the second raised the dividing line to 1 million Both proposals were able to pass in the House but on December 4 2010 both fell short of the 60 votes required to avoid a filibuster 47 On December 6 2010 President Barack Obama announced a compromise tax package proposal had been reached centered around a temporary two year extension of the Bush tax cuts 48 In particular the framework included key points such as Extending the 2001 2003 income tax rates for two years Also reforming the AMT to ensure an additional 21 million households will not face a tax increase These measures are intended to provide relief to more than 100 million middle class families and prevent an annual tax increase of over 2 000 for the typical family 49 Additional provisions designed to promote economic growth 56 billion in unemployment insurance an approximate 120 billion payroll tax cut for working families about 40 billion in tax cuts for the hardest hit families and students and 100 percent expensing for businesses during 2011 49 50 Estate tax adjustment Rates would be 35 percent after a 5 million exemption 50 51 Obama said I m not willing to let working families across this country become collateral damage for political warfare here in Washington And I m not willing to let our economy slip backwards just as we re pulling ourselves out of this devastating recession So sympathetic as I am to those who prefer a fight over compromise as much as the political wisdom may dictate fighting over solving problems it would be the wrong thing to do As for now I believe this bipartisan plan is the right thing to do It s the right thing to do for jobs It s the right thing to do for the middle class It is the right thing to do for business And it s the right thing to do for our economy It offers us an opportunity that we need to seize 52 According to Kori Schulman 2010 Director of Online Engagement for the Whitehouse media team the agreement has three accomplishments working families will not lose their tax cut focused on high impact job creation measures and does not worsen the medium and long term deficit 53 nbsp The Bush Deficit by Nancy PelosiAdministration officials like Vice President Joe Biden then worked to convince wary Democratic members of Congress to accept the plan notwithstanding a continuation of lower rates for the highest income taxpayers 54 The compromise proved popular in public opinion polls and allowed Obama to portray himself as a consensus builder not beholden to the liberal wing of his party 55 The bill was opposed by some of the most conservative members of the Republican Party as well as by talk radio hosts such as Rush Limbaugh and some groups in the Tea Party movement 55 56 It was also opposed by several leading potential candidates for the Republican nomination in the 2012 presidential election including Mitt Romney 55 typically on the grounds that it did not make the Bush tax cuts permanent and that it would overall increase the national deficit 57 In an interview during these debates former President Bush said I wish they would have called it something other than the Bush tax cuts There d probably be less angst amongst some to pass it 58 He argued strongly for maintaining the rates I do believe it s very important to send the signal to our entrepreneurs and our families that the government trusts them to spend their own money And I happen to believe lower taxes is what stimulates economic growth and what we need now in our country is economic growth 58 On December 15 2010 the Senate passed the compromise package with an 81 19 vote with large majorities of both Democrats and Republicans supporting it 59 Near midnight on December 16 the House passed the measure on a vote of 277 148 with only a modest majority of Democrats but a large majority of Republicans voting for the package 60 61 Before that an amendment put forward by Democratic Representative Earl Pomeroy and the progressives among the Democratic caucus to raise the estate tax which was the ultimate sticking point of the deal for them and the cause of a minor revolt among those against it failed on a 194 233 vote 55 60 62 The Washington Post called the approved deal the most significant tax bill in nearly a decade 61 President Barack Obama signed the Tax Relief Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization and Job Creation Act of 2010 on December 17 2010 Fiscal cliff edit nbsp Budget deficits projected through 2022 The CBO Baseline shows the effects of the fiscal cliff if Congress did nothing The Alternative Scenario represents what would happen if Congress extends the tax and spending laws that are due to expire at the end of 2012 Main article United States fiscal cliff This section needs to be updated Please help update this article to reflect recent events or newly available information January 2013 The fiscal cliff refers to December 31 2012 the date of the expected implementation of government spending reductions and expiration of a large number of tax cuts many of which were the tax cuts enacted under George W Bush and extended by President Obama In a report released in May 2012 the Congressional Budget Office CBO In addition to the government spending reductions and tax cuts increases in costs from the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act were slated to take effect as well 63 The CBO predicted that these policy changes could lead to reduced economic growth significant enough to be considered a recession although the 2013 deficit would be cut roughly in half and the debt trajectory over the next decade would be significantly improved 64 65 The increase in tax rates that was due to occur had been described by Republicans including House Speaker John Boehner House Majority Leader Eric Cantor and Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell as the largest in U S history although the U S would be returning to Clinton era tax rates According to the Associated Press the increase would be the second largest after the tax increase of 1942 if population growth increased pay and the size of the economy are taken into account 64 Based on figures from the CBO and Joint Committee on Taxation federal taxes would have increased by a total of 423 billion in 2013 if the tax cuts had been allowed to expire 64 The non partisan Tax Policy Center estimated that for 83 of households in the U S there would be an average tax increase of 3 701 66 and The Heritage Foundation stated that those impacted by the tax cut expiry are primarily in the middle and low income groups with its research finding that families would experience an average tax increase of 4 138 67 According to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities the expiration of the Bush income tax rates i e returning to Clinton era rates would have affected higher income families more than lower income families The Bush tax cuts reduced income taxes for those earning over 1 million by 110 000 per year on average during the 2004 2012 period The tax cuts made the tax system less progressive From 2004 through 2012 the tax cuts increased the after tax income of the highest income taxpayers by a far larger percentage than they did for middle and low income taxpayers During 2010 for example the tax cuts increased the after tax income of people making over 1 million by more than 7 3 but increased the after tax income of the middle 20 of households by just 2 8 68 A report from the CBO 69 concluded that extending the tax cuts and spending policies would lead to federal debt increasing from 73 in 2012 to over 90 of U S gross domestic product by 2022 but that the debt to GDP ratio would decline to 61 in 2022 if the tax cuts expired and scheduled spending cuts took place The CBO concluded thatThe explosive path of federal debt under the alternative fiscal scenario underscores the need for large and timely policy changes to put the federal government on a sustainable fiscal course Policymakers will need to increase revenues substantially above historical levels as a percentage of GDP decrease spending significantly from projected levels or adopt some combination of those two approaches In fact the current laws that underlie CBO s baseline projections provide for significant changes of those kinds in coming years many other approaches to constraining future deficits are possible as well CBO s term alternative scenario refers to extending the tax cuts and preventing scheduled automatic spending cuts while baseline scenario refers to allowing the tax cuts to expire and the spending cuts to take place as provided for by laws in effect in June 2012 The expiration of the tax rate cuts was opposed by Republicans including those on the House Ways and Means Committee which attempted to produce a bill providing for a one year extension that would ensure that federal tax rates for all income levels capital gains dividends and estate taxes would remain the same The bill would have also retained tax credits including the child tax credit but would propose ending the current payroll tax cut 70 The Democratic majority Senate was in favor of extending the tax cuts only on that portion of household income below 250 000 per year 71 72 American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 editOn January 1 2013 the Bush Tax Cuts expired However on January 2 2013 President Obama signed the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 which reinstated many of the tax cuts effective retroactively to January 1 The 2012 Act did not repeal the increase in the highest marginal income tax rate from 35 to 39 6 which had been imposed on January 1 as a result of the expiration of the Bush Tax Cuts See also edit nbsp Conservatism portal nbsp Economics portal nbsp Government portalEconomic policy of Barack Obama Economic policy of the George W Bush administration Economists statement opposing the Bush tax cuts Taxation in the United StatesReferences edit GOP Eyes Arcane Budget Rule to Help Crush Obamacare The Fiscal Times CBO Changes in CBO s Baseline Projections Since January 2001 CBO June 7 2012 a b CBO Budget and Economic Outlook 2009 2019 CBO January 7 2009 Retrieved November 21 2016 The Bush Tax Cuts Disproportionately Benefitted the Wealthy Economic Policy Institute The Bush era tax cuts were designed to reduce taxes for the wealthy and the benefits of faster growth were then supposed to trickle down to the middle class Their Fair Share Wall Street Journal July 21 2008 Retrieved March 14 2023 Wilson D William Beach April 27 2001 The Economic Impact of President Bush s Tax Relief Plan The Heritage Foundation Archived from the original on March 8 2011 Retrieved April 5 2011 Under President Bush s plan an average family of four s inflation adjusted disposable income would increase by 4 544 in fiscal year FY 2011 and the national debt would effectively be paid off by FY 2010 Riedl Brian M January 29 2007 Ten Myths About the Bush Tax Cuts The Heritage Foundation Retrieved February 12 2007 Friedman Joel Shapiro Isaac April 23 2004 Tax Returns A Comprehensive Assessment of the Bush Administration s Record on Cutting Taxes Center on Budget and Policy Priorities Retrieved July 1 2010 Welch William Bello Marisol July 1 2007 Dems call for ending tax cuts for rich USA Today Retrieved July 19 2007 Kogan Richard Aron Dine Aviva July 27 2006 Claim that Tax Cuts Pay for Themselves is Too Good to Be True Center on Budget and Policy Priorities Retrieved July 19 2007 Analyzing the Economic and Budgetary Effects of a 10 Percent Cut in Income Tax Rates PDF Archived from the original PDF on January 12 2012 Retrieved March 31 2011 Dynamic Scoring A Back of the Envelope Guide PDF Archived from the original PDF on May 16 2008 Retrieved March 30 2008 A Heckuva Claim washingtonpost com January 6 2007 Retrieved March 31 2011 Sebastian Mallaby May 15 2006 The Return Of Voodoo Economics washingtonpost com Retrieved March 31 2011 Krugman Paul 2007 The Conscience of a Liberal W W Norton Company Inc ISBN 978 0 393 06069 0 The Budget and Economic Outlook Fiscal Years 2010 to 2020 PDF January 26 2010 Income Inequality Has Intensified Under Bush Archived May 5 2012 at the Wayback Machine Retrieved August 6 2012 Aron Aviva January 23 2007 New CBO Data Show Income Inequality Continues to Widen Cbpp org Center on Budget and Policy Priorities Retrieved December 10 2010 Burman Leonard E May 1 2007 Rising Economic Inequality and Tax Policy Taxpolicycenter org Archived from the original on May 18 2011 Retrieved March 31 2011 Abramowitz Michael Montgomery Lori January 31 2007 Bush Addresses Income Inequality Washingtonpost com Retrieved March 31 2011 Price L October 25 2005 The Boom That Wasn t The economy has little to show for 860 billion in tax cuts Retrieved December 1 2017 Andrews Edmund L January 8 2007 Tax Cuts Offer Most for Very Rich Study Says The New York Times Retrieved January 14 2007 Justin Fox December 6 2007 Tax Cuts Don t Boost Revenues Time Archived from the original on December 8 2007 Retrieved December 7 2007 Economists on Net Revenue Impact of Bush Tax Cuts Archived from the original on July 17 2011 Retrieved November 10 2007 Price L amp Ratner D October 26 2005 Economy pays price for Bush s tax cuts Retrieved December 1 2017 a href Template Cite web html title Template Cite web cite web a CS1 maint multiple names authors list link Gale G W amp Orzsag P R May 4 2005 The Great Tax Shift Archived from the original on November 2 2007 Retrieved November 11 2007 a href Template Cite web html title Template Cite web cite web a CS1 maint multiple names authors list link Income tax bracket creep through the decades The Christian Science Monitor September 9 2008 Bloomberg Simon Johnson Tax Cutters Setup Tomorrow s Fiscal Crisis Noir bloomberg com December 22 2010 Archived from the original on July 12 2012 Retrieved March 31 2011 Kassler Glenn December 6 2011 My So Called Adulthood The Washington Post Retrieved January 20 2012 Taxes the Deficit and the Economy The New York Times September 21 2011 Retrieved February 11 2012 Surprising Jump in Tax Revenues Is Curbing Deficit The New York Times July 9 2006 Retrieved December 31 2020 Changes in CBO s Baseline Projections Since January 2001 PDF CBO Department of the Treasury OTA Working Paper 81 PDF September 2006 Steinhauer Jennifer December 2 2010 Some Democrats Count on Millionaires Strategy on Tax Cuts The New York Times Retrieved December 18 2010 The Budget and Economic Outlook PDF Congressional Budget Office August 2010 p 24 Table 1 7 Retrieved March 31 2011 Decision Time The Fiscal Effects of Extending the 2001 and 2003 Tax Cuts Pewtrusts org May 2010 Retrieved March 31 2011 fpc state gov https web archive org web 20170823204740 https fpc state gov documents organization 148790 pdf Archived from the original PDF on August 23 2017 Retrieved June 25 2017 a href Template Cite web html title Template Cite web cite web a Missing or empty title help News Headlines Cnbc com July 29 2010 Retrieved December 10 2010 Zandi Mark A Second Quick Boost From Government Could Spark Recovery Edited excerpts from congressional testimony July 24 2008 Slurpee Summit attendees What Obama Pelosi Reid Boehner and McConnell think about bipartisanship NBC News Dickerson John November 30 2010 Meeting Expectations President Obama and Republican leaders finally get in the same room Slate Obama tells Republicans he should have worked more with them CNN December 1 2010 Archived from the original on January 19 2013 Murray Shailagh Perry Bacon Jr December 1 2010 After meeting Obama and Republicans hopeful about a deal on Bush tax cuts The Washington Post Thrush Glenn MJ Lee Carrie Budoff Brown November 30 2010 Barack Obama fields tax talk team Politico Espo David December 1 2010 Senate GOP letter calls for blocking most bills AP Simons Meredith December 1 2010 GOP Senators Pledge to Block All Democratic Legislation Slate permanent dead link Dayen Favid December 2 2010 Senate GOP Blocks Consideration of Tax Plan Extending Rates on First 250K and First 1M Firedoglake Archived from the original on December 7 2010 Retrieved December 14 2010 Herszenhorn David M Stolberg Sheryl Gay December 7 2010 Democrats Skeptical of Obama on New Tax Plan The New York Times Retrieved December 8 2010 a b Fact Sheet on the Framework Agreement on Middle Class Tax Cuts and Unemployment Insurance The White House whitehouse gov December 7 2010 Retrieved December 10 2010 via National Archives a b Dupree Jamie December 9 2010 Tax Cuts Compromise Package Summary The Atlanta Journal Constitution Archived from the original on December 11 2010 Retrieved December 10 2010 Scherer Michael January 14 2010 Playing The Tax Compromise Number Game Swampland Time Retrieved December 10 2010 Jesse Lee December 7 2010 President Obama on Tax Cuts and Unemployment Extension The Right Thing to Do whitehouse gov Retrieved December 17 2010 via National Archives Supporting Small Businesses The White House Retrieved March 14 2023 Hulse Carl Calmes Jackie December 7 2010 Biden and G O P Leader Helped Hammer Out Bipartisan Tax Accord The New York Times Retrieved December 8 2010 a b c d Jake Sherman December 13 2010 Tax cut plan clears House goes to Barack Obama Politico Com Retrieved December 17 2010 Grumbling on extremes not likely to halt tax deal The Seattle Times December 14 2010 Retrieved December 17 2010 the CNN Wire Staff December 18 2010 Obama to sign tax deal Friday afternoon CNN com Retrieved December 17 2010 a href Template Cite news html title Template Cite news cite news a author has generic name help a b Dooe Mary December 14 2010 George W Bush Stop Calling Them Bush Tax Cuts CBS News Retrieved December 14 2010 Herszenhorn David M December 15 2010 Senate OKs tax bill House to vote Thursday The Seattle Times Retrieved December 17 2010 a b Brian Beutler December 16 2010 House Passes Tax Cut Plan Obama To Sign Tpmdc talkingpointsmemo com Retrieved December 17 2010 a b Congress votes to extend Bush era tax cuts until 12 The Washington Post December 17 2010 Retrieved December 17 2010 Sonmez Felicia April 13 2010 44 House resumes debate on tax cut bill after liberal uprising The Washington Post Retrieved December 17 2010 Fiscal Cliff Taxmageddon Sequestration What Does It All Mean The National Law Review Drinker Biddle amp Reath November 13 2012 Retrieved December 3 2012 a b c Fact Check Republicans exaggerate size of Taxmageddon It s not the biggest tax hike ever Star Tribune June 11 2012 Retrieved June 27 2012 permanent dead link Economic Effects of Reducing the Fiscal Restraint That Is Scheduled to Occur in 2013 cbo gov Congressional Budget Office May 22 2012 Retrieved June 27 2012 Elizabeth Dwoskin June 20 2012 Could Congress Compromise on Taxmageddon Bloomberg Businessweek Archived from the original on June 22 2012 Retrieved June 21 2012 Amy PayneJune June 15 2012 How Taxmageddon Will Impact You Morning Bell The Heritage Foundation Retrieved June 21 2012 Bush Tax Cuts Have Provided Extremely Large Benefits to Wealthiest Americans Over Last Nine Years July 30 2012 The 2012 Long Term Budget Outlook Congressional Budget Office June 2012 1 Emily Miller June 19 2012 Obama is being outmaneuvered on critical pocketbook issue The Washington Times Retrieved June 21 2012 Siobhan Hughes July 25 2012 U S Senate Votes to Limit Bush Tax Cuts to 250 000 of Income The Wall Street Journal Retrieved August 19 2012 S 3412 An act To amend the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 provide tax relief to middle class families PDF Retrieved August 19 2012 External links editEGTRRA s impact on tax revenue and summary of changes via irs gov Special Report Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003 JGTRRA Professor John Wachowicz at the University of Tennessee Effective Federal Tax Rates Under Current Law 2001 to 2014 by the Congressional Budget Office Fact Sheet on the Framework Agreement on Middle Class Tax Cuts and Unemployment Insurance The White House Retrieved from https en wikipedia org w index php title Bush tax cuts amp oldid 1196808060, wikipedia, wiki, book, books, library,

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